Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t know …Will liked the 66% odds this morning too. 0Z GFS was an inch of Christmas snow for Houston, 6Z was 6 inches, 12Z, nothing. But I posted ensemble 18 in the Texas thread. Remember, hasn't snowed here in Houston in 5 years. February 2021 was freezing drizzle. At 14° F. We get cold and not snow. Was lurking, the ensemble odds tempted me to post. GFS ensemble mean is still over a tenth of liquid and it should be cold enough Christmas day. So cheer up. Every 5-10 year snow and once a decade hurricane, and otherwise no weather in Houston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes sir…but is it that significant at such a long lead as this? If this were Tuesday or Wednesday I could see the concern much more. 66% positive at a weeks lead is a pretty good look, no? It is to me, because looking at the 500mb pattern I could see why there is concern. I don’t like massive cold troughs kissing the Gulf of AK from British Colombia and have no where to go, but dig into the western US. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I’ll look to see how they changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIsound Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I did this and I apologize . Daughter coming in from Denver on red eye Thursday night , arriving in Boston Friday am. Bought a back up ticket for Saturday last night. It was Ryan's Thursday " possible noreaster" forecast that got to me. I truly am sorry.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll look to see how they changed Nah..it’s all good Scott. Don’t even waste anymore time on this POS. Thanks for the info. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, BIsound said: I did this and I apologize . Daughter coming in from Denver on red eye Thursday night , arriving in Boston Friday am. Bought a back up ticket for Saturday last night. It was Ryan's Thursday " possible noreaster" forecast that got to me. I truly am sorry.... It was you!! haha Seriously though the storm may still be a bit of an aviation nightmare even without snow locally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nah..it’s all good Scott. Don’t even waste anymore time on this POS. Thanks for the info. I wouldn't waste time, but it's not 100% dead yet. I'd give it another day of keeping an eye on it to see if there are any wholescale changes in the other direction. Low chance, but still relatively far out. (especially if I lived in WNE/NNE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hard to see but I think these show 47% inland/35% coastal/17% full on Grinch? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hard to see but I think these show 47% inland/35% coastal/17% full on Grinch? I see some credence perhaps to a SWFE look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Does Ryan have a soueaster icon for his 7 day? Oh man it won’t pan out that way but can you imagine a soueast screamer for SNE with wind damage? No snow or no power for Christmas Eve. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: You are in a dark place after this morning's fail. Take a step away and come back at 12z In hindsight, this wasn't great advice. my bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Oh man it won’t pan out that way but can you imagine a soueast screamer for SNE with wind damage? No snow or no power for Christmas Eve. Lol Did that in 2020 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Looks like you guys might be in for a potentially exciting period up that way. Nothing guaranteed but some chances at something at least We just shifted into deep winter here in Gainesville. No more 77 degree afternoons we had been getting every day. Looks to be mostly low 60s for foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nah..it’s all good Scott. Don’t even waste anymore time on this POS. Thanks for the info. Time to log off and go full Ron Washington this weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/15/2022 at 8:53 AM, Cold Miser said: ...Grinch incoming. Word On 12/15/2022 at 11:30 AM, CoastalWx said: All downhill from here. Jinx On 12/15/2022 at 1:44 PM, ineedsnow said: Euro is perfect! Fail =( 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I see some credence perhaps to a SWFE look. That's my hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yes, we all did. But when a third of them suck...that is statistically significant. That's all I mean. That says to me, I see some concern. About 10% of the members had measurable snowfall for 12/11-12/12 about 5-6 days out and most people ignored 12/11 until we got much closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Word Jinx Fail =( As the peeps anxiously await the 18z GFS to keep their hopes alive for a grinch-free Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's my hope. Is there room for this to become a swfe/Miller B hybrid type of storm if we see more confluence show up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 So this rough month or so has been a textbook case of how great patterns in the Northeast don't necessarily mean great snows. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It is to me, because looking at the 500mb pattern I could see why there is concern. I don’t like massive cold troughs kissing the Gulf of AK from British Colombia and have no where to go, but dig into the western US. 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Is there room for this to become a swfe/Miller B hybrid type of storm if we see more confluence show up? Keep reading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So this rough month or so has been a textbook case of how great patterns in the Northeast don't necessarily mean great snows. I'll keep that in mind the next time I see someone claiming a great pattern is shaping up for the period.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 the ICON made a sizeable shift towards the GFS in terms of its handling of the TPV this is likely due to the stronger AK vort, which slows it down and allows the some of the TPV to slip out ahead of it. if the GFS holds, it might actually be handling that piece of energy well... we'll see in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So this rough month or so has been a textbook case of how great patterns in the Northeast don't necessarily mean great snows. This is why I didn't go nuts with my seasonal totals. Steve asked...this month is the answer. That said, it's not impossible for the GFS to seize the coup back from the GEM. Very unlikely, yes.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the ICON made a sizeable shift towards the GFS in terms of its handling of the TPV this is likely due to the stronger AK vort, which slows it down and allows the some of the TPV to slip out ahead of it. if the GFS holds, it might actually be handling that piece of energy well... we'll see in a bit 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is why I didn't go nuts with my seasonal totals. Steve asked...this month is the answer. That said, it's not impossible for the GFS to seize the coup back from the GEM. Very unlikely, yes.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Might want to change the name of the thread - chuck the bigger snow plow for … hmmm …. Sand bags? …. Row boat? …. Bilge pump? Just a thought. So damn frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the ICON made a sizeable shift towards the GFS in terms of its handling of the TPV this is likely due to the stronger AK vort, which slows it down and allows the some of the TPV to slip out ahead of it. if the GFS holds, it might actually be handling that piece of energy well... we'll see in a bit I’d like to see a multi suite shift there but if I’m honest confidence in a forecast won’t be higher until the Euro makes a similar type of shift, or the GFS goes boldly (and consistently) in the other direction. I’m of the opinion that it’s way too early to punt this threat. Let’s see how that evolution evolves in the next 48 hours and go from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS likely going to hold serve. handling the AK vort pretty much exactly the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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