"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This is why people shouldnt get excited for any runs past 7 days or models shouldn't be running past 7 days.

 

We were all happy yesterday about a huge snowstorm and now look.

It seems to almost always fail when we start a thread at 8 days out.  I remember when James did it and people lambasted him for that.

[George001]

I did see several posts saying the odds we get out of December with nothing on this board and others is very low just 2-3 days ago. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the next threat will hit, but that’s why I’m thinking we will get hammered at least once before the month ends. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I see, playing the ole DIT reverse psychology.  

Lol..good one Bob. No, but gonna go have some brews shortly like DIT would.  

[SouthCoastMA]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah…she gone; gone like Brady’s Super Bowl hopes. 

bro, 45 min ago you were viciously ripping off limbs with no mercy, like a true alpha wolf.  Seems you've been neutered!

[Go Kart Mozart]

What happened a week after the Cleveland Super Bomb?

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I see, playing the ole DIT reverse psychology.  

DIT reverse psychology, TBlizz meh'ing, Ginx's parchment scrolls directly from Connecticut's fabled Charter Oak, doing a seance in Mitch's graveyard, untethering from reality like George, beer, edibles, shrooms. 

Whatever it takes to bring this back in time for Christmas. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I did see several posts saying the odds we get out of December with nothing on this board and others is very low just 2-3 days ago. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the next threat will hit, but that’s why I’m thinking we will get hammered at least once before the month ends. 

If you look at the ensemble pattern at 500 on all models 12/25-12/31 there is a way better chance something happens there than there ever was this next week.  That is a true +PNA pattern 

[Cold Miser]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It's the 3rd thing guaranteed in life after death and taxes.

I was kind of chuckling yesterday as people were getting excited about this yesterday, almost 9 or 10 days out. It was funny as well, hearing people at work talking about the HUGE Christmas snowstorm coming.

Continued on-line activity is bad for my aging eyes, my sanity and my sex life, so I use my time on-line sparingly and only when it really matters.  THIS is something that does not really matter. 

 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You quitting in day 7? Day 7?

Ya bud…I’m out on this threat.  
We got METS saying it probably ain’t coming back(Snowgoose).  
 

Feels good to let it go. GFS should cave at 18z and that’ll be all she wrote.   If it comes back as a shell(FROPA) of what was shown yesterday, and we can grab a lil something, cool.   
 

 

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

DIT reverse psychology, TBlizz meh'ing, Ginx's parchment scrolls directly from Connecticut's fabled Charter Oak, doing a seance in Mitch's graveyard, untethering from reality like George, beer, edibles, shrooms. 

Whatever it takes to bring this back in time for Christmas. 

This.

[MJO812]

The curse of Henry Marqusity and Joe Bastardi lives on.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya bud…I’m out on this threat.  
We got METS saying it probably ain’t coming back(Snowgoose).  
 

Feels good to let it go. GFS should cave at 18z and that’ll be all she wrote.   If it comes back as a shell(FROPA) of what was shown yesterday, and we can grab a lil something, cool.   
 

 

Rayo seems to agree somewhat with what I think.  He’s not sold it’s going bomb mode into the Lakes, he just thinks it’s inland and not snow for the coast.  I feel the GEM/Euro idea is probably going to verify way way too amped in the end.  It’ll probably end up being a 990 low into Buffalo or a hybrid low/front.  I’m not buying the bomb into the Lakes but feel the benchmark idea or anything close is highly remote to come back 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

66% of eps favorable turned into like 5% in 2 runs lol

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

bro, 45 min ago you were viciously ripping off limbs with no mercy, like a true alpha wolf.  Seems you've been neutered!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you look at the ensemble pattern at 500 on all models 12/25-12/31 there is a way better chance something happens there than there ever was this next week.  That is a true +PNA pattern 

Next weeks pattern looked the same it’s always 10-15 days out. 

[weathafella]

I’m surprised the pope isn’t here to deliver a stern message.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Next weeks pattern looked the same it’s always 10-15 days out. 

It’s really inside that, the PNA is pretty positive 12/24-12/25 on the ensemble charts.  I think even 10 days ago most of the ensembles had a PNA today around -0.5 

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I apologize but I dropped $1500 on a new snowblower this week.  Was hoping to have it by now but will have it delivered Tuesday.  Just on time to sit in the garage.  I knew I was killing winter when I bought it but I’m tired of fighting my crappy one.

I know the feeling.  I started mine up on Tuesday to make sure it was ready for the season, and in the back of my mind was wondering if I jinxed it.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

66% of eps favorable turned into like 5% in 2 runs lol

When 34% look crappy...it's an eye opener. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When 34% look crappy...it's an eye opener. 

I don’t know …Will liked the 66% odds this morning too. 

[PWMan]

Wow - this thread/threat went south (west?) in a hurry. Hadn't checked it since yesterday afternoon, when everyone was giddy. At work yesterday I heard multiple references from non-weather-weenies to the possibility of a big snowstorm next week, so people were definitely honking. At least we didn't waste too many days tracking it.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I don’t know …Will liked the 66% odds this morning too. 

Yes, we all did. But when a third of them suck...that is statistically significant. That's all I mean. That says to me, I see some concern. 

[78Blizzard]

59 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Something happened to make the models do a complete hard turn towards these current solutions. I doubt it’s going to come back.

I'm convinced that Hunga Tonga has something to do with this. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Lol..yup. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

4 out of 52 members on the EPS that aren’t cutters to some degree. What could go wrong

Does Ryan have a soueaster icon for his 7 day?

[CT Rain]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Does Ryan have a soueaster icon for his 7 day?

lol not yet

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes, we all did. But when a third of them suck...that is statistically significant. That's all I mean. That says to me, I see some concern. 

Yes sir…but is it that significant at such a long lead as this?   If this were Tuesday or Wednesday I could see the concern much more. 66% positive at a weeks lead is a pretty good look, no? 

[George001]

A 66% chance of a big solution a week out I’ll take those odds any day. If the models actually just trended to the 34% solution and then lock in on that a week out that would be some bullshit

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

lol not yet

My daughter did get excited when she saw the nor'easter and snow, likely in the forecast for the end of next week. I told her I was excited to, but not to get too excited as it would likely change. Boy I hate being pessimistic... But I need to let her know it May not always go the way we want ( oh wait, I was telling myself that ) lol

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..yup. 

I'm still in but reserve the right to jump ship late Sunday. The pattern giveth and the pattern taketh away.