"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Newman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

That has to be a shift of at least 1,000 miles

It is, I measured it on google maps and it's a ~1,050ish mile difference in the low pressure center

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody honked. I think you meant "discussed what models showed."  

No, MJO812 is right. Even the meteorologists in Connecticut talked about the possibility of a big nor'easter and snow being likely the end of next week. So of course everyone was going to get excited. It just looked like a pattern that would be locked.

So in all fairness, give him a break.. you don't always have to feel the need to correct somebody. I think a lot of us were excited.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter's probability maps are going to look a lot uglier today....

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’ve watched six hours of non-accumulating snow today and then models trending strongly in the wrong direction for next week.

I think I’m just gonna take a mental break this week and try and enjoy Christmas.  If things still look like crap tomorrow night I’m out. 

I don't think this is coming back...the problem is the whole W Canada PV change is inside 72, for the models to make that shift like this and be wrong on that is unlikely...its possible though its nowhere near as amped as the Op Euro...as a matter of fact its likely it is nowhere near that amped...it could trend to a glorified FROPA as I said earlier 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 out of 52 members on the EPS that aren’t cutters to some degree. What could go wrong

[J Paul Gordon]

Never underestimate the Grinch. lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't think this is coming back...the problem is the whole W Canada PV change is inside 72, for the models to make that shift like this and be wrong on that is unlikely...its possible though its nowhere near as amped as the Op Euro...as a matter of fact its likely it is nowhere near that amped...it could trend to a glorified FROPA as I said earlier 

It’s not like this type of a model shift is that anomalous us either. Certainly seen this happen before at this lead time. It seems like more often than we don’t see them come back after seeing this type of shift? 

[SRRTA22]

"we're gonna need a tornado shelter" 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

4 out of 52 members on the EPS that aren’t cutters to some degree. What could go wrong

It surely does suck. It would be nice that just once things would stay consistent a week out. So normal to feel this way, and I happily admit that I feel disappointed to, and I will again. But one of these will stick ( and when it does we're all going to be on the roof like little kids, getting ready to go sled riding after a big snowstorm with all our friends ). That's why we all keep coming back. Glutton for punishment lol

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

the meteorologists in Connecticut talked about the**** possibility**** of a big nor'easter and snow being likely the end of next week. So of course everyone was going to get excited. *It just looked like a pattern that would be locked.*

 

makes perfect sense 

[J Paul Gordon]

Maybe change the thread title to " We're gonna need a bigger boat"?

[weathafella]

Put it on the back burner and see what the next 2 days in model trends are.  No need to go crazy/kids will be initially disappointed but ultimately be happy from the love they received from parents and family.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Jeez, makes you wonder why anybody would book a ski vacation in New England for Christmas week?  

At one time I knew a lot of people who skied, now I do not know anyone that goes skiing. Back in the day there was a small ski area in North Andover Ma called Boston Ski Hill. It was open from the late 40's and it closed after the 92-93 ski season. That place wouldn't survive now.

[wxsniss]

Let's not blame anyone for believing yesterday's guidance and the large scale pattern that we'd have a decent chance at snow... this is one of the more egregious model swings I've seen in a while. People on this forum are not alone:

NWS zone forecasts still have 50% chance snow for most of SNE next Thursday...

NWS long range disco from last night:

Thursday...

Late next week ensemble height anomalies become configured across
N.A. to support a potential Northeast winter storm, with a large
amplitude west coast ridge, driving an amplifying downstream trough
over the MS & OH valley. In addition, anomalous Greenland ridge
extending into the NW Atlantic, supporting a negative tilt trough
from the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic. This likely precludes
system from heading out to sea, but also possibly tracking too close
to the coast for an all snow event. Storm track and ptype will
remain unknown until sometime next week. Also worth noting, tides
are astronomically high, with Boston at 11.28 ft MLLW 9:38 am Thu,
and 11.64 ft MLLW at 10:27 am Fri. Thus, we will need to watch this
closely as coastal flooding is possible.

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What...what is this? Ya doin' this in another subforum? How long...how long has this been going on?? How...how COULD you?? 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

makes perfect sense 

And Torch Tiger you're one of the few that loves to taunt people and not a nice way. Doesn't bother me, but just know that you could use a class on proper etiquacy.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Put it on the back burner and see what the next 2 days in model trends are.  No need to go crazy/kids will be initially disappointed but ultimately be happy from the love they received from parents and family.

Not if their parents are snow weenies. Those parents are angry and will burn scalps with curling irons 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Let's not blame anyone for believing yesterday's guidance and the large scale pattern that we'd have a decent chance at snow... this is one of the more egregious model swings I've seen in a while. People on this forum are not alone:

NWS zone forecasts still have 50% chance snow for most of SNE next Thursday...

NWS long range disco from last night:

Thursday...

Late next week ensemble height anomalies become configured across
N.A. to support a potential Northeast winter storm, with a large
amplitude west coast ridge, driving an amplifying downstream trough
over the MS & OH valley. In addition, anomalous Greenland ridge
extending into the NW Atlantic, supporting a negative tilt trough
from the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic. This likely precludes
system from heading out to sea, but also possibly tracking too close
to the coast for an all snow event. Storm track and ptype will
remain unknown until sometime next week. Also worth noting, tides
are astronomically high, with Boston at 11.28 ft MLLW 9:38 am Thu,
and 11.64 ft MLLW at 10:27 am Fri. Thus, we will need to watch this
closely as coastal flooding is possible.

What relevence is that DISO? The data has changed,

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Something happened to make the models do a complete hard turn towards these current solutions. I doubt it’s going to come back.

[Go Kart Mozart]

We need to Tip to explain that the kinematic periodicities of the hypostatical dynamism are leading the models astray.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not if their parents are snow weenies. Those parents are angry and will burn scalps with curling irons 

My love message failed to resonate….

[8611Blizz]

JFC this thread is a train wreck.

[WinterWolf]

To be honest…I’m glad it’s over now/early.  Flush it and be done.   What a shit show. 
 

 

[MJO812]

My new avatar

[Jebman]

Give the models a couple of days. The storm is there. You're all gonna get snow and lots of it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Shit and rumors of shit 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Damn, that was ugly… as where the last 5 pages. Pattern looks good after xmas though lol.

[weathafella]

My wife found a 24 acre place we can buy in northern VT.  Tempting….

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weathafella said:

My wife found a 24 acre place we can buy in northern VT.  Tempting….

Do it. YOLO.

[Jebman]

Just now, weathafella said:

My wife found a 24 acre place we can buy in northern VT.  Tempting….

Do it! Life is short! Imagine all the snow you'll get to see every winter! You could flood the sub with spectacular pictures every winter, while we all drool over them.