"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Defense mechanism? No defense mechanism here pal. What’s your defense mechanism…poo pooping every single threat that comes along?
 

Whatever. Your idea of cooked is laughable at this range. But knock yourself out.  

I will say that if this system looks like this tomorrow, then I am out. I am getting to the point that I was at with respect to today's system on Sunday.

Not dead, but dying....the storm is a week out, but what matter is at like day 4.

JMO, but I think you need to lay off of him a bit....this does not look good. Its essentially the GFS vs the world at day 4.

[weathafella]

Well it is trending to a Midwest blizzard and east coast grinch.   Plenty of time to change but right now gfs is the extreme outlier.

[MuddyWx]

Digging a few hundred miles west of 0z. Oof

[MJO812]

Just now, weathafella said:

Well it is trending to a Midwest blizzard and east coast grinch.   Plenty of time to change but right now gfs is the extreme outlier.

So much for the epic pattern

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

Digging a few hundred miles west of 0z. Oof

Pretty apparent by 96h that it would. This will be Chicago track or roughly somewhere near there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

So much for the epic pattern

Pattern is epic, but it may also blow rotten donkey balls that vomit in your egg nogg....those are the risks. lol

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty apparent by 96h that it would. This will be Chicago track or roughly somewhere near there.

Lol…if they’re not too far east.

[Hazey]

A Christmas Torch. A time honored Maritime and New England tradition. Lol we just can't shake this. 

[MuddyWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty apparent by 96h that it would. This will be Chicago track or roughly somewhere near there.

Yea. Well that sucks

[brooklynwx99]

the entire longwave pattern is completely different on the GFS and ECMWF. laughable at this range

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This isn’t a melt, but I’m just so sick of whatever this pattern is. Hopefully if this thing cuts to Chicago we can shake things up a bit.

Id roll the dice with a shakeup heading into the new year.

If I have to see another NAO chart, or any other “days 10-15” look amazing, I’m literally going to vomit.

a phrase that should be banned lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

@brooklynwx99, please show me an image of the PV at hour 345...I need reassurance lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I assume it cuts and then we get deep cold and dry behind it? 

[Damage In Tolland]

That would melt more snow than the Grinch storm 2 years ago. For those that have some. 
 

I knew this morning when I saw all those members of EPS into NY state this was in deep trouble 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the entire longwave pattern is completely different on the GFS and ECMWF. laughable at this range

I'd be surprised if this ended well at this point, but the EURO has done shit like this in error before.

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the entire longwave pattern is completely different on the GFS and ECMWF. laughable at this range

It really isn’t, it’s either the PV goes into BC or it’s ejected.  Pattern supports the PV into BC.  Check my posts from over a month ago on this very idea.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd be surprised if this ended well at that point, but the EURO has done shit like this in error before.

I’m on board with you in terms of we will give this about another 36 hours to correct.

[brooklynwx99]

this is the difference between the two outcomes. everything after this is gravy

the GFS has a much more amplified vort diving out of AK... this means that it travels slower and allows the TPV to get out ahead of it, leading to the two-piece solution

the ECMWF has it much flatter, which allows it to catch up and mingle with the TPV, leading to the farther W solution with very little confluence

which one is right? there really isn't a way to tell at this point, but we will know in the next 48 hours. I'm sure that we will see some EPS members that amp this up like the GFS and some that flatten it like the ECMWF, leading to considerable spread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m on board with you in terms of we will give this about another 36 hours to correct.

I'll give it 24....if we are like this at 12z tomorrow, then I am out.

Keep in mind...CMC and ICON blow, UK is nuts and EURO likes to bury energy west at least excuse imaginable....so we have a consensus, but its kind of a handicapped consensus.

Not dead, but in some trouble...give it a day.

[millpondwx]

I mean, the Euro went from Chatham to Champaign in 24hrs.  That may be one of the biggest 24hrs corrections I've seen from the Euro.  What a disaster for the ski resorts if this is turns out to be a close depiction.

[wxsniss]

Even folks in Chicago will be disappointed this is cutting too much on this run

Only a ~700 mile shift in track since 12z yesterday. Horrendous model continuity at surface and aloft. This is completely out of range of even the 0z ensembles tracks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What the hell's wrong with this forum. You got some people who like to taunt, and push people's buttons. Maybe you get off on that but have a little consideration.

On the other hand, you have people who live and die by each model run.

If you really think about it, we're all on here for the same reasons. We all want to see that epic pattern, we all want to have that huge snowstorm. It's just not always in the cards. More often than not, it's not in the cards.

I would love to have had a real good snowstorm before Christmas. And there still is a chance that can happen. But it might not. There's so much more s*** in this world. Going on that so much worse. But we got to take something that we all love and push each other's buttons. 

Let's try something new, let's try treating each other with respect and learn how to have different opinions without attacking each other.

 

 

 

If you can't take some ball-busting, then this may not be the best forum for you.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@brooklynwx99, please show me an image of the PV at hour 345...I need reassurance lol

Seriously

These models shouldn't even go out past 7 days anymore

Horrible performance

I'm going to go insane if we don't all score from this pattern.

[ORH_wxman]

Nice squall line from CAR to Havana.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Seriously

These models shouldn't even go out past 7 days anymore

Horrible performance

I'm going to go insane if we don't all score from this pattern.

That was total light-hearted ribbing....obviously he knows his stuff.

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was total light-hearted ribbing....obviously he knows his stuff.

Of course

I know him from other forums

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll give it 24....if we are like this at 12z tomorrow, then I am out.

Keep in mind...CMC and ICON blow, UK is nuts and EURO likes to bury energy west at least excuse imaginable....so we have a consensus, but its kind of a handicapped consensus.

Not dead, but in some trouble...give it a day.

It’s just frustrating because we all know that great patterns don’t necessarily produce great outcomes still it’s nice to have something to look forward to.

Other than the folks in the hills around Gardener today, the general stingy snow pattern for the RT 2 area over to your hood continues. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll give it 24....if we are like this at 12z tomorrow, then I am out.

Keep in mind...CMC and ICON blow, UK is nuts and EURO likes to bury energy west at least excuse imaginable....so we have a consensus, but its kind of a handicapped consensus.

Not dead, but in some trouble...give it a day.

And the GFS has a severe SE bias 

[CoastalWx]

Lets get a high shear/low CAPE event for @CT Rain

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, Hazey said:

A Christmas Torch. A time honored Maritime and New England tradition. Lol we just can't shake this. 

 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll give it 24....if we are like this at 12z tomorrow, then I am out.

Keep in mind...CMC and ICON blow, UK is nuts and EURO likes to bury energy west at least excuse imaginable....so we have a consensus, but its kind of a handicapped consensus.

Not dead, but in some trouble...give it a day.

I’d give it to Sunday, but if this went to hell it’d be worse than what I thought couldn’t be topped in 2020 with King Grinch. 

Doesn’t look good, but I’m holding for now…