"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So we feel what the GEM and Icon show today is certainly right  7 days from now?  
 

The GEM and ICON? 
 

ok. 

Not sure they are right running this storm north of Chicago, but more so in just the idea of something west of the Apps. I do think, one of these models will have a good idea of Great lakes, Apps, or coastal by Sunday morning. After that will be fine tuning.....36 to 48 hrs of model flux until then

[cleetussnow]

Everyone's butts are clenched. 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is kind of going hybrid again on the TPV look like 00z....would've liked to see it definitively go more GFS/NAM route.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gfs was fine.  GEM is a pos. Abs so is the icon.
 

 I just don’t know how anybody can say we’re cooked 7 days out. But I guess you can.  

Gfs moved in that direction not debatable. And the other two weren’t even in the stratosphere of being close for here. Trying to be objective. Not dance around the elephant in the room. I know how many days away the storm is, you have to do what you have to do I guess.

repeating how many days the storm is away is just a defense mechanism because the modeled solutions on the whole look like dung right now.

[MuddyWx]

Will not be as east as the GFS

[ORH_wxman]

It looks a bit worse than 00z through 96h up north....I'll be somewhat surprised if this solution ends up cold/snowy.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs moved in that direction not debatable. And the other two weren’t even in the stratosphere of being close for here. Trying to be objective. Not dance around the elephant in the room. I know how many days away the storm is, you have to do what you have to do I guess.

repeating how many days the storm is away is just a defense mechanism because the modeled solutions on the whole look like dung right now.

Defense mechanism? No defense mechanism here pal. What’s your defense mechanism…poo pooping every single threat that comes along?
 

Whatever. Your idea of cooked is laughable at this range. But knock yourself out.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It looks a bit worse than 00z through 96h up north....I'll be somewhat surprised if this solution ends up cold/snowy.

I said earlier that the 06EPS looked more like the GEM, so not suprised.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Whatever. Your idea of cooked is laughable at this range. But knock yourself out.  

It’s a cutter over Cleveland, but it’s 7 days a way!!!!!! Plenty of time to correct everything to get it near the benchmark.

I don’t know dude. You think I’m being a Debbie, but 12z runs have been junk 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s a cutter over Cleveland, but it’s 7 days a way!!!!!! Plenty of time to correct everything to get it near the benchmark.

I don’t know dude. You think I’m being a Debbie, but 12z runs have been junk 

Let’s wipe it clean for your trip to North Conway. 

[dryslot]

Pretty tough to figure where this is going to go when H5 on all the models have different outcomes ea run, Good luck

[MJO812]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s a cutter over Cleveland, but it’s 7 days a way!!!!!! Plenty of time to correct everything to get it near the benchmark.

I don’t know dude. You think I’m being a Debbie, but 12z runs have been junk 

It's still early though

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def more GEM like.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Let’s wipe it clean for your trip to North Conway. 

LOL brutal.....Cranmore shut down.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def more GEM like.

GEM can't buy a coup on a snow event, but it will be the first to sniff out the TPV getting trapped and taking a blizzard away.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I may end up with less snow this December the "RNA from hell" of December 2021.

[MuddyWx]

Yea GFS mostly on its own at 12z. EPS still should tell us more

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

Yea GFS mostly on its own at 12z. EPS still should tell us more

I don't really want to hear anymore.

[qg_omega]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may end up with less snow this December the "RNA from hell" of December 2021.

Nothing wrong with December 21, had a few snow events.

[CoastalWx]

I’ll argue the block may be effing us. That thing has nowhere to go but almost into the Gulf of AK. It’s stuck between two ridge boobs.

[Go Kart Mozart]

WTF is TPV?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

WTF is TPV?

Tropospheric Polar Vortex

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’ll argue the block may be effing us. That thing has nowhere to go but almost into the Gulf of AK. It’s stuck between two ridge boobs.

Like I have been saying....just give me a cold Canada slam a SW into it....that is how we get great months of December.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't really want to hear anymore.

.

 

yeah, I don’t think people should be holding their breathe 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll argue the block may be effing us. That thing has nowhere to go but almost into the Gulf of AK. It’s stuck between to ridge boobs.

You just poured Kevin another beer. 

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said earlier that the 06EPS looked more like the GEM, so not suprised.

next

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This isn’t a melt, but I’m just so sick of whatever this pattern is. Hopefully if this thing cuts to Chicago we can shake things up a bit.

Id roll the dice with a shakeup heading into the new year.

If I have to see another NAO chart, or any other “days 10-15” look amazing, I’m literally going to vomit.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

next

winter? 

[MJO812]

This is why people shouldnt get excited for any runs past 7 days or models shouldn't be running past 7 days.

 

We were all happy yesterday about a huge snowstorm and now look.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

This is why people shouldnt get excited for any runs past 7 days or models shouldn't be running past 7 days.

 

We were all happy yesterday about a huge snowstorm and now look.

That's your fault.