"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[RDRY]

Already full model agreement on a major storm ... somewhere. Probably won't take much longer for them to narrow the goalposts.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, George001 said:

Yeah even a Canadian solution wouldn’t be horrible (for this threat obviously it is, a full blown cutter with 60 degrees and flooding rains). We sacrifice the first storm, but the trough is so far west that it hangs around longer to set us up for the next storm. Bernie Rayno in his videos talks about how there is often 2 threats with these, one when the trough comes in and one on the back end when the trough leaves.

My hunch is even if the UKIE/ICON/CMC idea is right we won't get anything nearly as amped as they showed, it'll probably be a split idea and end up some type of glorified FROPA

[78Blizzard]

In the case of today's system, the GFS was the outlier ots and finally caved to the others on d6.  So if it follows the same pattern, we should expect it to cave soon.

[cleetussnow]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I swear I was just internally musing that… And frankly I thought that yesterday per one or two runs as well GFS was taking a lot of really deep routes through the northern golf interface establishing some very low surface barometric pressure really low in latitude.  Heh

Maybe we could do what 93 failed which is to have that low come another 100 miles east because it doesn’t do a lot of good to get 3 feet of snow along the ridge line of the Appalachian mountains after 12 days of histrionics by the weather channel lol

I’m just being a jerk there in  kidding

Same thought here, but I dare not mention that storm.  What grabbed my attention is that the thing hugs and yet snows at the coast because of the deepening low.

[MuddyWx]

I know there's a long ways to go, but not ideal that the east-biased GFS is closest to what we're looking for

[Ginx snewx]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, if the main shortwave behind that lead wave can catch up just a bit, then you end up with a really high end type system in NE. That's how Feb 2013 happened....there was this little lead wave around the Carolinas and the main shortwave caught it and phased.

Yea yesterday I said it had a 13 vibe setup.

LFG

 

[Heisy]

I know there's a long ways to go, but not ideal that the east-biased GFS is closest to what we're looking for

Hard to have any confidence with GFS handling of TPV when it’s on its own island right now. Stranger things have happened though.


.

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

I know there's a long ways to go, but not ideal that the east-biased GFS is closest to what we're looking for

Any further west than the GFS prolly goes the other side of the Apps since apps runners are hard to pull off.  If we get lucky an apps runner scenario might transfer and that works.  Much modeling to go.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

In the case of today's system, the GFS was the outlier ots and finally caved to the others on d6.  So if it follows the same pattern, we should expect it to cave soon.

Yes, it was a clear not to the cutter solution, I’m not sure that is overly debatable.

[George001]

12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

In the case of today's system, the GFS was the outlier ots and finally caved to the others on d6.  So if it follows the same pattern, we should expect it to cave soon.

Honestly, I was somewhat concerned when I saw Bernie Raynos video where he insisted that the pattern supported a cutter last evening (even before the awful 0z runs). He has his busts, but I’ve been watching his videos for years and the guy knows his shit. When he stuck to his guns and said it was going to cut despite the guidance showing a more favorable solution I saw that as a red flag. That said although it makes sense to lean toward an inland solution right now it’s still worth keeping an eye on. It’s very possible both Bernie and the models are wrong and the entire pattern is shifted 200 miles east. Hopefully the GFS is on to something here.

[weathafella]

Euro will cut.  That’s my early model call for 12z today.

[weathafella]

Uncle is 1000 miles west of gfs.

[Hazey]

Hopefully if it cuts, it drags a CF through quickly and maybe get a little wave action on the front is it sits off shore. If not, things might get ugly.  

[MuddyWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Uncle is 1000 miles west of gfs.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle is 1000 miles west of gfs.

Yeah, I think we’re cooked, but that’s just my opinion.

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro will cut.  That’s my early model call for 12z today.

It's going to cut to Buffalo, 975ish....that wave out in front, hanging around the OBX is playing games too. I bet if it isn't there on the EURO, the storm cuts right up the Apps.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, I think we’re cooked, but that’s just my opinion.

SHOCKING! 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

Honestly, I was somewhat concerned when I saw Bernie Raynos video where he insisted that the pattern supported a cutter last evening (even before the awful 0z runs). He has his busts, but I’ve been watching his videos for years and the guy knows his shit. When he stuck to his guns and said it was going to cut despite the guidance showing a more favorable solution I saw that as a red flag. That said although it makes sense to lean toward an inland solution right now it’s still worth keeping an eye on. It’s very possible both Bernie and the models are wrong and the entire pattern is shifted 200 miles east. Hopefully the GFS is on to something here.

You need about a 1500 mile shift on most guidance, not 200

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

SHOCKING! 

You feel warm and fuzzy about the 00z runs so far wolfie?

[Typhoon Tip]

No the clear difference with the GGEM is that it’s keeping the heights flat in the west over the relay from the Pacific Ocean over North America.

… so there’s a ton of short wave mechanics delivered there but it’s just not “waiting” to break. It wraps up early over Chicago and so forth. 

I think it’s pretty clear almost to the point of cut and dry that the GGEM has to be correct about that orientation of the flow west of approximately 110 W. There doesn’t seem to be any factor controlling why it’s doing that at least from what I’m looking at    …otherwise it solutions gonna be way too far west. Which it might be right to keep less ridging until the west….I don’t know. My first impulse is to say it’s wrong though because that ridge is rooted in the rise in the PNA.    It’s also a continuity break in fact it’s last three cycles it’s been all over the map with trough handling  

Fwiw, that’s really kind of true for the last several cycles of that icon from what I’m saying.  

I don’t ever look at the UK met

[Sey-Mour Snow]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No the clear difference with the GGEM is that it’s keeping the heights flat in the west over the relay from the Pacific Ocean over North America.

… so there’s a ton of short wave mechanics delivered there but it’s just not “waiting” to break. It wraps up early over Chicago and so forth. 

I think it’s pretty clear almost to the point of cut and dry that the GGEM has to be correct about that orientation of the flow west of approximately 110 W. There doesn’t seem to be any factor controlling why it’s doing that at least from what I’m looking at    …otherwise it solutions gonna be way too far west. Which it might be right to keep less ridging until the west….I don’t know. My first impulse is to say it’s wrong though because that ridge is rooted in the rise in the PNA.    It’s also a continuity break in fact it’s last three cycles it’s been all over the map with trough handling  

Fwiw, that’s really kind of true for the last several cycles of that icon from what I’m saying.  

I don’t ever look at the UK met

You must have no interest in the RH over Antartica...its cleans up on that.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Great read about the splitting of the energy to our north being what we need for the favorable solutions. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You feel warm and fuzzy about the 00z runs so far wolfie?

Gfs was fine.  GEM is a pos. Abs so is the icon.
 

 I just don’t know how anybody can say we’re cooked 7 days out. But I guess you can.  

[tim123]

Gfs was close to what euro was showing last night.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gfs was fine.  GEM is a pos. Abs so is the icon.
 

 I just don’t know how anybody can say we’re cooked 7 days out. But I guess you can.  

I mean it's Tblizz....never saw a threat that wasn't already cooked at D7. Call it the "Reverse JB" model.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gfs was fine.  GEM is a pos. Abs so is the icon.
 

 I just don’t know how anybody can say we’re cooked 7 days out. But I guess you can.  

I think because there is no real compromise ground...if the CMC/UKIE idea is right this probably is done completely...it won't matter if its a cutter to Green Bay or a glorified FROPA...there really is no physical way to make this work once that whole W Canada evolution fails...some events we can change a thing or two and still get something but with this I think that evolution decides the entire fate as far as snow or rain/nothing 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean it's Tblizz....never saw a threat that wasn't already cooked at D7. Call it the "Reverse JB" model.

It’s Pathetic. 

[Snowcrazed71]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You feel warm and fuzzy about the 00z runs so far wolfie?

I have a question for you. Can you honestly say that what the models are showing last night and early today are the final outcome for next Thursday, Friday?

Did you just join this thread? Lol 

In all seriousness, things are bound to change from what they're showing today. From all of the model runs. Maybe you enjoy getting a rise out of people, but if you were smart, you would take these runs with a grain of salt and see where we fall as we get towards Sunday Monday. There are lots of things changing in the atmosphere. And we have the coldest air that we've seen so far coming down to the US heading towards the east the end of next week. Give it some time to get all of these things ingested into the computers to see where it's going to fall

 

 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think because there is no real compromise ground...if the CMC/UKIE idea is right this probably is done completely...it won't matter if its a cutter to Green Bay or a glorified FROPA...there really is no physical way to make this work once that whole W Canada evolution fails...some events we can change a thing or two and still get something but with this I think that evolution decides the entire fate as far as snow or rain/nothing 

So we feel what the GEM and Icon show today is certainly right  7 days from now?  
 

The GEM and ICON? 
 

ok.