"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[MJO812]

Ukie is a cutter

[SnowGoose69]

UKMET is definitely closer to the CMC if you ask me

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is the in the GEM boat right now....no PV moving east. Americans vs Foreign right now on the 12z suite pending the Euro.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What a kick in the jewels that solution is.

Yeah, I’m a little worried that we’ve seen several of those runs from various models

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is the in the GEM boat right now....no PV moving east. Americans vs Foreign right now on the 12z suite pending the Euro.

Didn’t you say those differences show up pretty early? That’s not good in terms of getting large scale changes on those models 

[Kitz Craver]

USA! USA! USA!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So everything sucks so far except the gfs. What could go wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is the in the GEM boat right now....no PV moving east. Americans vs Foreign right now on the 12z suite pending the Euro.

GEM kind of looks like what happened earlier in December...with the -NAO conjoining with the SE ridge as heights crash out west.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree, was thinking the same. 

I was thinking the opposite, but does the lack of spacing help drag the follow up wave toward the coast?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I was thinking the opposite, but does the lack of spacing help drag the follow up wave toward the coast?

If that baroclinic zone was untapped, I think it would argue for something further west. 

[CoastalWx]

Or like Will said, if it did catch up, it could phase and pull offshore low closer.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Didn’t you say those differences show up pretty early? That’s not good in terms of getting large scale changes on those models 

Well one of the sets of models will be wrong....so by deifnition one of them will change a lot. GFS and NAM are similar while GGEM/Ukie are in the other camp. You can see the PV diving SE on the GFS/NAM....here's a comparison between GFS and GEM at 84 hours....you can cleary see the GFS is already sending that piece of PV off to the east and southeast.

 

 

[MJO812]

-NAO

-AO

+PNA

Wtf 

[brooklynwx99]

the GEFS has actually gotten stronger with the TPV lobe press compared to 00z

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So everything sucks so far except the gfs. What could go wrong.

06z EPS looked like the GEM camp IMO.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, MJO812 said:

-NAO

-AO

+PNA

Wtf 

wtf is right. what does this even mean

[dryslot]

Isn't the GFS schooling the other models?     lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

-NAO

-AO

+PNA

Wtf 

Not a +PNA

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wtf is right. what does this even mean

He means how are we facing a possible midwestern blizzard with east coast weather index bingo.

[Spanks45]

My memory of storms is very foggy, but living in the Mid Atlantic. There was a storm 2011, 2013ish. That the GFS sort of reminded me of down there. There was an initial storm that brought a few I ches of snow. Then a change over to rain and drizzle. Then by the evening there was a second, very strong system that moved it. I remember, thunder and lighting with sleet that eventually changed over to snow. I think there was an additional 6-12 inches by the next morning.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He means how are we facing a possible midwestern blizzard with east coast weather index bingo.

i mean, I know what he meant, but the indices don't mean anything. it's all in the nuances of the flow

weather comes down to luck like 80% of the time. all good patterns do is raise odds, not guarantee anything

[Heisy]

Well one of the sets of models will be wrong....so by deifnition one of them will change a lot. GFS and NAM are similar while GGEM/Ukie are in the other camp. You can see the PV diving SE on the GFS/NAM....here's a comparison between GFS and GEM at 84 hours....you can cleary see the GFS is already sending that piece of PV off to the east and southeast.
 
 

Icon does it as well. We’ve seen model wars before, but this is a big one. Any gut feeling here? Feel like last nights Euro was more of a middle ground with the TPV handling. This is impressive for only 72-84 hours out.


.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well hopefully people can make the distinction between hyperbole over a single model run… Successfully separating that from an actual objective prediction.
 

Because I’d like to express myself here and say that that GFS solution is a wide area multi regional destructive coastal bomb -

wow

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Icon does it as well. We’ve seen model wars before, but this is a big one. Any gut feeling here? Feel like last nights Euro was more of a middle ground with the TPV handling. This is impressive for only 72-84 hours out.


.

Yeah the Euro was kind of a middle ground. My guess is it won't play out like that though....prob more binary. But well see. This pattern has been really screwing with guidance. They are having a lot of trouble handling the extreme blocking...it makes it hard to pinpoint which piece of energy get emphasized.

[MJO812]

Gefs looks great

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not a +PNA

Yeah, exactly why 12/25-12/31 may be where everyone from DCA-BOS sees a snow event if this fails...the PNA does not go positive with a ridge on or just inland of the W Coast until then...the ridge positioning through the next 7 days has screwed us with cutters or inside runners before.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS has a March 93 vibe around here. 

I swear I was just internally musing that… And frankly I thought that yesterday per one or two runs as well GFS was taking a lot of really deep routes through the northern golf interface establishing some very low surface barometric pressure really low in latitude.  Heh

Maybe we could do what 93 failed which is to have that low come another 100 miles east because it doesn’t do a lot of good to get 3 feet of snow along the ridge line of the Appalachian mountains after 12 days of histrionics by the weather channel lol

I’m just being a jerk there in  kidding

[ORH_wxman]

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah, exactly why 12/25-12/31 may be where everyone from DCA-BOS sees a snow event if this fails...the PNA does not go positive with a ridge on or just inland of the W Coast until then...the ridge positioning through the next 7 days has screwed us with cutters or inside runners before.

You know, I have to agree. The storm next week may be the actual one that sets us up for the next one the following week.

If it cuts in, there is so much cold air behind it that will have all that cold air to hit the next one.

I really really would love a white Christmas. But I really don't want it on Christmas Eve. That's a big day for my whole family, and we finally have everybody here this year to get together. It doesn't happen on Christmas Eve itself. I would rather take rain, sorry guys. ( And I'm the biggest snow weenie on here )

[George001]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah, exactly why 12/25-12/31 may be where everyone from DCA-BOS sees a snow event if this fails...the PNA does not go positive with a ridge on or just inland of the W Coast until then...the ridge positioning through the next 7 days has screwed us with cutters or inside runners before.

Yeah even a Canadian solution wouldn’t be horrible (for this threat obviously it is, a full blown cutter with 60 degrees and flooding rains). We sacrifice the first storm, but the trough is so far west that it hangs around longer to set us up for the next storm. Bernie Rayno in his videos talks about how there is often 2 threats with these, one when the trough comes in and one on the back end when the trough leaves.