"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[wxeyeNH]

GFS has the storm.  Going to be further west.  Hour 174 at Cape Hatteras

[MuddyWx]

Canadian is a blizzard for green bay lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe because today's setup isn't a lakes cutter and there's no PV in western Canada today? Other than that, they look exactly the same.

It looks to me like the PV injects energy sooner and further west on the GEM...like Montana.

[wxeyeNH]

965 at the Jersey Shore, looks to go over/around BOS

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Lumbers up the eastern seaboard.

I'd guess that jacks VA to maybe DC.

[ariof]

The GFS, on one of the busiest travel days of the year, would slam:

ATL, CLT, IAD, DCA, BWI, PHL, EWR, JFK, LGA, BOS

Probably shut down the NEC too, and driving? Ha.

Good luck to anyone trying to get home for Christmas if it verifies.

(the Canadian glances MSP and ORD, I guess?)

[wxeyeNH]

962mb right over BOS

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd guess that jacks VA to maybe DC.

DC to NYC then up the berks into the resorts.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It looks to me like the PV injects energy sooner and further west on the GEM...like Montana.

PV never makes it eastward on the GEM....the whole thing happens pretty early in the run....like look at 84h at H5 on GEM vs GFS....GFS already diving the PV lobe ESE with some ridging on the west coast while GEM has no ridging there and the PV is just going to park in W Canada with nothing to pin it under the NAO block.

 

FWIW, the NAM at 84h looks like the GFS and not the GEM.

[CT Rain]

The GFS has a March 93 vibe around here. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CT Rain said:

The GFS has a March 93 vibe around here. 

Ya same thought. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS has a March 93 vibe around here. 

I would have to imagine I would get some CF love on that depiction....may do like a BD with two areas of enhancement....one out west, and one just inland with lower level fronto.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lots of ice/sleet on that run.   Not that it matters

[CoastalWx]

What a beast on the GFS. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

The GFS has a March 93 vibe around here. 

Obv things will change, but just talking GFS, it would be nice if that whole thing came in about 200 miles shallower (further N)....I don't like seeing these stemwinder systems from the gulf....they typically don't end up that great here. They will often be snowy in an absolute sense but usually we get dryslot and/or some mixing issues.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, ariof said:

The GFS, on one of the busiest travel days of the year, would slam:

ATL, CLT, IAD, DCA, BWI, PHL, EWR, JFK, LGA, BOS

Probably shut down the NEC too, and driving? Ha.

Good luck to anyone trying to get home for Christmas if it verifies.

(the Canadian glances MSP and ORD, I guess?)

Even the CMC is a disaster for the airports...NYC airports getting those FROPA events usually have LIFR vis/cigs, major low-level shear and 16025G45KTs....no matter what it'll suck for the airports, just a question on the roads and the GFS is worse for that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Obv things will change, but just talking GFS, it would be nice if that whole thing came in about 200 miles shallower (further N)....I don't like seeing these stemwinder systems from the gulf....they typically don't end up that great here. They will often be snowy in an absolute sense but usually we get dryslot and/or some mixing issues.

This is why I hate Miller A.

Exactly....like I said, take high end off of the table, albeit still major.

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Obv things will change, but just talking GFS, it would be nice if that whole thing came in about 200 miles shallower (further N)....I don't like seeing these stemwinder systems from the gulf....they typically don't end up that great here. They will often be snowy in an absolute sense but usually we get dryslot and/or some mixing issues.

Yeah you don't want the thing closing off near ORF. Never too great here locally. 

[radarman]

might not be a bad thing if that lead surface wave that forms off the carolinas gets going a little

[Hazey]

ICON and GEM look similar in their depictions. Looks frigid afterwards

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Honestly, I’d take my chances with something like the gfs.

 

CMC ain’t even close.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Yeah you don't want the thing closing off near ORF. Never too great here locally. 

I doubt it will close that far south...especially in a la nina. I see it pulling a March 2001 trend in the future.

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS has a March 93 vibe around here. 

I'd take that in a heartbeat 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, radarman said:

might not be a bad thing if that lead surface wave that forms off the carolinas gets going a little

Agree, was thinking the same. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

might not be a bad thing if that lead surface wave that forms off the carolinas gets going a little

I said in the NYC forum that if that idea the GFS shows happens the storm would not track as far west as shown, that lead wave would probably drag the zone SE for sure 

[CoastalWx]

The Davis Strait block needs to keep that piece of the PV north of us too. Some of those warmer solutions have it flying out to the northeast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

ICON and GEM look similar in their depictions. Looks frigid afterwards

What a kick in the jewels that solution is.

[J Paul Gordon]

Gonna be interesting in my new location. Lower elevation further north and east of Worcester just west of 495 (Bolton exit). If it goes over Boston it seems it will go over to rain or freezing rain for a bit here if not to all rain--maybe dryslot? Even so, if that scenario pans out the ground should be white on Christmas. Goes further west, well Welcome Grinchie lol.

Still so early in the game. Could be a big hit, could be another attack of impotent rage for the weenies.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

might not be a bad thing if that lead surface wave that forms off the carolinas gets going a little

Yeah, if the main shortwave behind that lead wave can catch up just a bit, then you end up with a really high end type system in NE. That's how Feb 2013 happened....there was this little lead wave around the Carolinas and the main shortwave caught it and phased.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Gonna be interesting in my new location. Lower elevation further north and east of Worcester just west of 495 (Bolton exit). If it goes over Boston it seems it will go over to rain or freezing rain for a bit here if not to all rain--maybe dryslot? Even so, if that scenario pans out the ground should be white on Christmas. Goes further west, well Welcome Grinchie lol.

Still so early in the game. Could be a big hit, could be another attack of impotent rage for the weenies.

Depends on antecedent. I never rained in March 1993 superstorm. The 15" of snow, sleet-slot. Inside of 128 rained.