"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all that matters at this range is that there’s a large system that’s likely to develop. could run along the coast. could go out to sea. could hit the benchmark

if people would like to assign unhealthy expectations and emotionally agonize over something 7 days away, then so be it, but it’s best to just sit tight and see what happens at this range

I've got news for you....99% of the people that frequent this place do so because they have a proclivity to do just this...myself included. Of the other 1%, .5% are Will and are robots, and the other .5% are Tip and lie about not doing it and/or project their tendency to do so onto others. lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all that matters at this range is that there’s a large system that’s likely to develop. could run along the coast. could go out to sea. could hit the benchmark

if people would like to assign unhealthy expectations and emotionally agonize over something 7 days away, then so be it, but it’s best to just sit tight and see what happens at this range

Edit option 4: could cut to Buffalo.  
 

Right now after last nights guidance most likely. 
 

1. Hugger or track over SNE

2. bench mark track 

3. Track over Buffalo 

4. ots 

I’m sure the order of this will change at least a few more times in the next 2-3 days. 

[WxWatcher007]

You know it’s not where we need it to be when we’re arguing over our feelings rather than clown maps.

[Damage In Tolland]

I honestly thought there was not any chance of a Grinch storm this year. And in an instant it is happening all over again. There wont be any snow to melt here anyway .. but I cannot believe this is happening again 

[Great Snow 1717]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all that matters at this range is that there’s a large system that’s likely to develop. could run along the coast. could go out to sea. could hit the benchmark

if people would like to assign unhealthy expectations and emotionally agonize over something 7 days away, then so be it, but it’s best to just sit tight and see what happens at this range

Agree!

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I honestly thought there was not any chance of a Grinch storm this year. And in an instant it is happening all over again. There wont be any snow to melt here anyway .. but I cannot believe this is happening again 

You are in a dark place after this morning's fail. Take a step away and come back at 12z 

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This place provides that for sure. Good to be back.

I'm so sorry to hear this. Nearly a decade ago now I lost my dad as I was careering towards rock-bottom during my struggle with alcoholism. This place really is a paradox because as much as it can tend to foster unhealthy and neurotic tendencies, it was also one of the very few constants at a time in my life when I struggled to conjure up so much as a modicum of interest in anyone or anything. And it also represented one of the outlets that were so instrumental in my ability to rebuild my life, and channel my addiction into somewhat healthier channels.

Happy holidays...hang in there, and think snow-

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I honestly thought there was not any chance of a Grinch storm this year. And in an instant it is happening all over again. There wont be any snow to melt here anyway .. but I cannot believe this is happening again 

Beers start early today and just keep flowing until Christmas?

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think that’s kind of burying the lead. There were some larger wholesale changes overnight that led to worse outcomes.

i understand that. we just have to see if those changes are legitimate or if there are other changes in store that’ll help the eventual outcome

all I’m personally looking for is a strong system to be consistently modeled somewhere near the coast. the GFS has the thing nearly OTS and the ECMWF cuts it to Buffalo

that is the range of outcomes right now, which is pretty common for this time frame

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If it cuts, well, we do need the rain. 

No we don't 

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Edit option 4: could cut to Buffalo.  
 

Right now after last nights guidance most likely. 
 

1. Hugger or track over SNE

2. bench mark track 

3. Track over Buffalo 

4. ots 

I’m sure the order of this will change at least a few more times in the next 2-3 days. 

I agree with that.  This is typical, and I imagine this will be a coastal but might be a hugger.  A lot times the models lose a storm but then come back to the original idea, at least when it was an idea shown strongly on all guidance.  Probably a interior storm like today.

[WinterWolf]

One thing to say…..7 DAYS AWAY.  That’s all we need to know. 
 

Did anybody really think…honestly, did anybody really think this was gonna stay a blockbuster coastal for 8 f’n Days, and in the same exact places as well? 
 

Yes, the runs weren’t super good for SNE overnight. But we know this is how the movie goes..all the dam time. 
 

Trolls will troll. Downers will down. Worriers will worry…but we knew this was coming, because it always does. 

 

2015 was GONE…GONE!  UNTIL the Euro brought it back from the dead Saturday morning in 1/15, two days before go time. As James said it might…god rest his soul. 
 

Nothing wrong with discussing, but as others have said, please let’s keep it objective.  This is gonna waiver from bad to worse and back again most likely. There will be more nuances that aren’t seen yet coming.  Just hang tight and let’s be objective. And that goes for me too. 

[MJO812]

I hate LA Nina

Bring on El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i understand that. we just have to see if those changes are legitimate or if there are other changes in store that’ll help the eventual outcome

all I’m personally looking for is a strong system to be consistently modeled somewhere near the coast. the GFS has the thing nearly OTS and the ECMWF cuts it to Buffalo

that is the range of outcomes right now, which is pretty common for this time frame

If I had to choose which rusty dildo to have crammed into my rear at the speed of light...it would be the GFS'.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I hate LA Nina

Bring on El Nino

I hate both...how about a span of several years without a La Nina or El Nino??

[MJO812]

I have an idea

Lets  all throw ice cubes  into the Atlantic Ocean to cool it off.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I hate LA Nina

Bring on El Nino

You’ll love La Niña if this delivers…so stop complaining, and go arrest some idiots in the city. 

[MJO812]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

You’ll love La Niña if this delivers…so stop complaining, and go arrest some idiots in the city. 

I'm off

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have an idea

Lets  all throw ice cubes  into the Atlantic Ocean to cool it off.

Time for you to get a side gig!!

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm off

Nice!  
 

Now relax…and be objective.  You know how this whole story works. 

[KTBFFH1905]

59 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

She loved a white XMAS, so LFG!

Beaming you all the mojo for a White Christmas for Mom ! LFG 

[George001]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have an idea

Lets  all throw ice cubes  into the Atlantic Ocean to cool it off.

I agree! The goddamn Atlantic Ocean being a furnace is a big reason why I’m raining right now despite a decent storm track. I also propose building a wall near the Atlantic Ocean to stop the east or southeast winds from getting in. If we do that, it opens up the possibility of snowing on the east side of a strong low when the airmass is cold enough. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't see much difference between the 12z and 00z EPS:

[HinghamBoss]

Really tiring of the two week winters with 1 or 2 storms.  The older I get, the more I am starting to favor summer over winter.  Winter feels infinitely longer when you toggle between cold/dry/bare trees and warm rainers.

[George001]

In all seriousness, I’m feeling pretty good about this upcoming pattern. Next weeks threat there is still a lot of uncertainty about the low location, but the guidance does have a very strong low with loads of QPF. The question is, how much of it will be snow? Even if the low takes a bad track, due to the airmass in place we might be able to get some snow on the front end before the change to rain as the low goes west of us (March 2017 could be a decent analog). A blizzard would be better, but at least we will have more chances afterwards even if this threat doesn’t work out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't see much difference between the 12z and 00z EPS:

TBH, if I had to pick one, I would take 00z......PNA and cross polar flow look a bit more robust. Maybe in this case a more robust PNA is worse because its west based?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

In all seriousness, I’m feeling pretty good about this upcoming pattern. Next weeks threat there is still a lot of uncertainty about the low location, but the guidance does have a very strong low with loads of QPF. The question is, how much of it will be snow? Even if the low takes a bad track, due to the airmass in place we might be able to get some snow on the front end before the change to rain as the low goes west of us. A blizzard would be better, but at least we will have more chances afterwards even if this threat doesn’t work out.

In the end, it’s just weather.  Hopefully it treats us well. If not, no big deal really. When I was alot younger it use to drive me crazy if we missed out. Now I realize there will always be another shot.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

In the end, it’s just weather.  Hopefully it treats us well. If not, no big deal really. When I was alot younger it use to drive me crazy if we missed out. Now I realize there will always be another shot.  

This would drive me crazy because its on Xmas eve and I have been porked so much already.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, if I had to pick one, I would take 00z......PNA and cross polar flow look a bit more robust. Maybe in this case a more robust PNA is worse because it’s west based?

And even that can change some being out at 180. As you/we said…it’s the nuances. More will be coming over the next week. 
 

Glad we have something significant to track… details to be determined. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This would drive me crazy because its on Xmas eve and I have been porked so much already.

Ya, I used to be that way…but I kind of don’t let it bother me nowhere near as much anymore.  

Luke and I have been porked a lot out west here over the last 8 years too…while out east has really cleaned up. So I know the feeling well.