"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Spanks45]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at all the members running this up into CNY. I worry 

A 957 in upstate NY...I would assume at least some damage down here. It just seems like it makes sense to let our current storm develop and move out. Models are going to struggle, as they did with our current storm.. but there is a real worry that most have frozen dirt come Christmas morning...

[Kitz Craver]

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sup where ya been

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This place provides that for sure. Good to be back.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not good op and ensemble runs overnight 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This place provides that for sure. Good to be back.

I’m so sorry. Lost my dad last December. I hope you and your family are doing as well as could be.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This place provides that for sure. Good to be back.

Damn, my condolences. Stay upright and keep on as best as you can. 

[Kitz Craver]

She loved a white XMAS, so LFG!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at all the members running this up into CNY. I worry 

Lot of cutters there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well huggers certainly a risk if there is no confluence. 

See, this is why people get aggravated about the people handing out pamphlets of hour 268 patterns like Jehovah witness disciples.  It just doesn't matter....in the end, there is always some nuance that can f8&k it up......then you come in and say that.

Its like Groundhog day.....(Alarm) Goooood morning, pattern looks great....BIG PNA ridge, NAO block, blah, blah. Merry Chr- EURO goes through Albany-Well, those are the risks....

.(Alarm) Goooood morning, pattern looks great....BIG PNA ridge, NAO block, blah, blah. Marry Chr- Well, those are the risks....

.(Alarm) Goooood morning, pattern looks great....BIG PNA ridge, NAO block, blah, blah. Marry Chr-EURO goes through Albany- Well, those are the risks....

.(Alarm) Goooood morning, pattern looks great....BIG PNA ridge, NAO block, blah, blah. Marry Chr-Euro goes through Albany- Well, those are the risks....

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, this is why people get aggravated about the people handing out pamphlets of hour 268 patterns like Jehovah witness disciples.  It just doesn't matter....in the end, there is always some nuance that can f8&k it up......then you come in and say that.

Its like Groundhog day.....(Alarm) Goooood morning, pattern looks great....BIG PNA ridge, NAO block, blah, blah. Merry Chr- EURO goes through Albany-Well, those are the risks....

.(Alarm) Goooood morning, pattern looks great....BIG PNA ridge, NAO block, blah, blah. Marry Chr- Well, those are the risks....

.(Alarm) Goooood morning, pattern looks great....BIG PNA ridge, NAO block, blah, blah. Marry Chr-EURO goes through Albany- Well, those are the risks....

.(Alarm) Goooood morning, pattern looks great....BIG PNA ridge, NAO block, blah, blah. Marry Chr-Euro goes through Albany- Well, those are the risks....

H5 is having a great season so far.

 

The op and ensemble runs immediately went to shit after Brooklyn spiked the football at day 9 yesterday 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

H5 is having a great season so far.

 

The op and ensemble runs immediately went to shit after Brooklyn spiked the football at day 9 yesterday 

If this ended up cutting, then I would legit take a mental health break.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If this ended up cutting, then I would legit take a break.

Same goes for me man. Until we actually have a legitimate snowstorm to follow. Funny thing is, if we get something 2 days later that becomes a major snowstorm you know will be on here like nothing ever happened lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Same goes for me man. Until we actually have a legitimate snowstorm to follow. Funny thing is, if we get something 2 days later that becomes a major snowstorm you know will be on here like nothing ever happened lol

If its imminent...otherwise, I would just hit and run blog posts.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If this ended up cutting, then I would legit take a mental health break.

Same here

Nothing is going right despite the good pattern 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If this ended up cutting, then I would legit take a mental health break.

Ultimately it is what it is. I am getting kind of sick of being porked right around the holidays though.

I woke up this morning to almost no posts, and then look to see the entire evolution has basically changed and the majority of individual ensembles are cutting this through Buffalo.

[NorEastermass128]

If it cuts, well, we do need the rain. 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same here

Nothing is going right despite the good pattern 

You have to look at it from the other side.  Things could be going perfect,  and you just don't know it yet.  Also remember we've had many great pattern periods over the years that just never produced.  Wait and see...tracking is most of the fun

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well huggers certainly a risk if there is no confluence. 

I'd like to add more to his ^ idea .  

(Try to stay lucid and objective, even if the reality of this is a bit abject )

West oriented/biased PNAP responses to rising +PNA signals,

                are not good. 

He's right about the confluence as well ... (that's also directly or indirectly related to mode/modality within western limb of the NAO), but crucial to the evolution/emergence of what this signal will ultimately become over eastern N/A, is very related to the behavior of the Pacific relay into western N/A. As was the case last night's 00z Euro ... a ridge axis collocating with the WC is skewed from climatology (anyway), but you can see that mechanically playing out in that as the big ejection into the flow of the powerful wave takes place  ... it is slicing SE earlier than is pleasing to the eye, consequently the wave starts to break too soon ...  

The natural question becomes whether that is correctable.   From this range, the auto response is yes... I'm sort of wondering if the signal is so big that the moving parts might be more stable than usual.  On the other hand we can mull around with ideas over whether this is just anomalous - as all systems have their own eye-color that deviates a little from the tribe somewhat.  We can certainly/plausibly send a bomb S of LI on a west-biased PNAP surge... just as much as we've seen systems cut to ALB with -NAOs...  It's certainly not etched in stone for a system that's D6..7.  

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This place provides that for sure. Good to be back.

Oh man sorry. Yeah good place for divergence 

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If this ended up cutting, then I would legit take a mental health break.

No reason for this not to cut

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

If it cuts, well, we do need the rain. 

Do we though? 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same here

Nothing is going right despite the good pattern 

Not to be heavy handed or holier than thou or anything condescending ... (really) but just an observation...

Saying 'nothing is going right' regarding a system that is still a week away is kind of amusing.  Maybe we could all benefit from resetting expectations for starters ? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My gut on how this plays out based upon what I expected from the month of December when I did my write up last month....I think most of the region gets a significant snowfall, but it may not be pretty and it probably won't be a blizzard. White Xmas for most, save for maybe the immediate shore.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ultimately it is what it is. I am getting kind of sick of being porked right around the holidays though.

I woke up this morning to almost no posts, and then look to see the entire evolution has basically changed and the majority of individual ensembles are cutting this through Buffalo.

Maybe Tip should rename the thread to “….boat” instead of “…Plow”, today, to change our fortunes?

[brooklynwx99]

all that matters at this range is that there’s a large system that’s likely to develop. could run along the coast. could go out to sea. could hit the benchmark

if people would like to assign unhealthy expectations and emotionally agonize over something 7 days away, then so be it, but it’s best to just sit tight and see what happens at this range

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be heavy handed or holier than thou or anything condescending ... (really) but just an observation...

Saying 'nothing is going right' regarding a system that is still a week away is kind of amusing.  Maybe we could all benefit from resetting expectations for starters ? 

He means the tenor of the season...and now this particular episode of model consternation exacerbates it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to be heavy handed or holier than thou or anything condescending ... (really) but just an observation...

Saying 'nothing is going right' regarding a system that is still a week away is kind of amusing.  Maybe we could all benefit from resetting expectations for starters ? 

Well yea but the title of the thread certainly doesn’t help reduce expectations lol. I’m not saying it is your fault either but if this craps the bed, we may need to re-think who should start these threads, jk.

[WeatherWilly]

Not the changes I was hoping for. But the changes I expected. 

[WxFreak11]

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This place provides that for sure. Good to be back.

I’m so sorry. Lost my Mom recently so this forum is at least a distraction even though I mostly lurk because I’m not as knowledgeable as most on here.


.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Maybe Tip should rename the thread to “….boat” instead of “…Plow”, today, to change our fortunes?

It’s heading in that direction.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

all that matters at this range is that there’s a large system that’s likely to develop. could run along the coast. could go out to sea. could hit the benchmark

if people would like to assign unhealthy expectations and emotionally agonize over something 7 days away, then so be it, but it’s best to just sit tight and see what happens at this range

I think that’s kind of burying the lead. There were some larger wholesale changes overnight that led to worse outcomes.