"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Sn0waddict]

3 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

Man can’t wait to see how this goes wrong. Perhaps a double barreled low or it ends up chasing convection east? Lol

I think the GFS just did at least one of these things. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Selfishly I like it there. Make’s an easier forecast if it’s the weaker goalpost..

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A little sloppy/disjointed though. Probably won’t climb and hug.

Just outside but in striking distance.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hate Miller As...so much more that can go wrong...that is one.

This is a Miller A now? Oof I’m with you on that, I hate Miller As. I hope the evolution changes and we get a Miller B instead. 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is disorganized 

Cmc goes inland 

A compromise between the gfs and Canadian would be nice

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

This is a Miller A now? Oof I’m with you on that, I hate Miller As. I hope the evolution changes and we get a Miller B instead. 

Love me some A. 

[CarverWX]

Looks like the first low that misses is helping push the more meaningful one little more east.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is disorganized 

Cmc goes inland 

How is a 963 mb disorganized… Lol

[CoastalWx]

Another biggie on the 26th.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Another biggie on the 26th.

Ho, ho, ho kids, dad's sleeping at the office for Christmas.

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Another biggie on the 26th.

Thats been there on a couple previous runs also. Would be fun for sure 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How is a 963 mb disorganized… Lol

It's all relative...maybe the phase is less than 100% proficient?

[George001]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Love me some A. 

Yeah Miller As are better for your area, I don’t like them because they are more prone to the low running inland, leading to rain in eastern areas. 

[dmcginvt]

why do we never hear miller c d and e?  Is It the same reason I hate the weather channel naming snowstorms? fu diaz, it's just a snowstorm

 

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, CarverWX said:

Looks like the first low that misses is helping push the more meaningful one little more east.

First low? Now we have 2 lows? Not this two or dual low BS already? 

[wxsniss]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's all relative...maybe the phase is less than 100% proficient?

Agree. Like you said earlier, we aren't going to see perfect phases on consecutive run after run of OPs

Also, more efficient/earlier phase (like 0z CMC) has greater risk of hugging.

I like where ensembles are at the moment.

 

 

[MJO812]

Very slow moving storm on the gefs

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very slow moving storm on the gefs

That’s not a bad thing.

[CarverWX]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

First low? Now we have 2 lows? Not this two or dual low BS already? 

Per the 0Z GFS at 168 there is a 1006 low just south of new England. Then at 180 it forms a 992 off the Carolina's which is the big storm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very slow moving storm on the gefs

Also nw and sharper from 18z. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Also nw and sharper from 18z. 

In your opinion, better than 18z? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

First low? Now we have 2 lows? Not this two or dual low BS already? 

Don’t sweat op runs but it’s this:

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In your opinion, better than 18z? 

Yes

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes

That’s all I need to know. Thanks for the response, and visual on that H5 Vorticity Luke.   Man that’s a ton of energy digging down deep in the Mississippi valley…holy powder keg. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah Miller As are better for your area, I don’t like them because they are more prone to the low running inland, leading to rain in eastern areas. 

Occlusion, too.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Occlusion, too.

LBSW too.  
 

Boxing Day was an A(yuck); 1996 was an A(awesome storm). 1993 was an A.  Obviously they come in different flavors.  Which one will this be? 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Occlusion, too.

It's occlusion

you will be put in seclusion

to deal with your delusion 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Occlusion, too.

I love Miller As

They're loaded with potential. Boxing day was my top 3 favorite storm

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

LBSW too.  
 

Boxing Day was an A(yuck); 1996 was an A(awesome storm). 1993 was an A.  Obviously they come in different flavors.  Which one will this be? 

So many more and hybrids. We take them all day any day with phased massive height falls.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I love Miller As

They're loaded with potential 

Yup…and many time’s extremely potent.