"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

FWIW, the EF Scale suggests the lower bound threshold for cell tower collapse is about 115 mph. 

Plausawa Hill is 1000 ft, plus the 190 ft tower gets you almost to 1200 ft. Model forecasts around 1200 ft for CON were around 70 kt sustained, so I don't think winds were quite that high.

Seems like some kind of failure near the base considering “it was ripped out of the ground foundation and all”. Most of the 190’ self-supporting towers I’ve seen are rated to 90mph. I’d assume they didn’t exceed the load limits, but who knows?

Did you ever get an official peak gust from CON for the day after the outage? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

RIP to that transmitter.

Sounds like our stuff may have been on that one.

Alex Jones doing cell tower work now?

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

[bobbutts]

16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

FWIW, the EF Scale suggests the lower bound threshold for cell tower collapse is about 115 mph. 

Plausawa Hill is 1000 ft, plus the 190 ft tower gets you almost to 1200 ft. Model forecasts around 1200 ft for CON were around 70 kt sustained, so I don't think winds were quite that high.

Freezing the ground solid and then putting several inches of rain into it with a rapid thaw def decreases the amount of force it takes to knock things over. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Seems like some kind of failure near the base considering “it was ripped out of the ground foundation and all”. Most of the 190’ self-supporting towers I’ve seen are rated to 90mph. I’d assume they didn’t exceed the load limits, but who knows?

Did you ever get an official peak gust from CON for the day after the outage? 

As far as I know, the data is gone during the outage, but we had a 51 mph before the ASOS went down.

[Modfan2]

12 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Freezing the ground solid and then putting several inches of rain into it with a rapid thaw def decreases the amount of force it takes to knock things over. 

But a lattice tower like that should have had guide wires. Plenty equipment I worked on FL were on similar towers; only one I saw over was from Hurricane Michael.

[bobbutts]

9 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

But a lattice tower like that should have had guide wires. Plenty equipment I worked on FL were on similar towers; only one I saw over was from Hurricane Michael.

The page here https://nediv.arrl.org/2022/12/23/tower-collapse-concord-nh/ said it was free standing which I took to mean without guide wires. 

[tamarack]

At noon, NYC was 12° and the coldest hourly reporting station in Maine was IZG at 15.  Not often one sees that temp regime.

Significant ice jam on the Sandy River, from the Farmington Falls bridge down 2-3 miles into New Sharon.  2nd smaller (~1 mi) jam in NS, above the quick water one sees from the Route 2 bridge and up to where Muddy Brook enters the river.  Would be nice if those ran before the flow calmed down.  Those jams are probably 3-4' thick and would remain, and increase, until the spring run.

[Zeppy]

Stole this from Facebook, guy says the window was open less than 1/4". In the Buffalo area.

[OceanStWx]

27 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

The page here https://nediv.arrl.org/2022/12/23/tower-collapse-concord-nh/ said it was free standing which I took to mean without guide wires. 

No, it was on 8 ft concrete pads sunk into the ground. But it managed to pull one up completely.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

No, it was on 8 ft concrete pads sunk into the ground. But it managed to pull one up completely.

Was there precip at the time? Maybe there was a very quick brief spin up TOR and it landed on the tower then went back up. It’s like Independence Day when the UFO went over the White House and boom 

[SouthCoastMA]

mod snow..starting to accumulate. 

[Hoth]

Fishers getting blasted with ocean effect. My house isn't winterized, but maybe if I throw a space heater in the car I can still get my white Christmas...Tempting.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

mod snow..starting to accumulate. 

Nice streamer right into your hood

 

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like it’s clipping S RI beaches too

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago they had almost 7” at Edgartown. Man I’m jelly, but that is just awesome. 

[CoastalWx]

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

There are probably no records for this, but what is the biggest purely OES event ever for the Cape and Islands?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

There are probably no records for this, but what is the biggest purely OES event ever for the Cape and Islands?

Yeah there’s really no way to tell without doing a deep analysis and unfortunately the coop data from the Cape isn’t that great. 
 

My guess is somewhere has gotten a foot before at some point but it probably wasn’t recorded at an official site. Hard to get much more than that unless everything was ridiculously perfect for days. 

We know there been 24”+ events when you include NORLUN events there that were enhanced by OES…but pure OES is a much tougher thing. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

There are probably no records for this, but what is the biggest purely OES event ever for the Cape and Islands?

I have no idea. To be honest, they do best on N or NNW flow and that’s usually for the outer cape. NE winds more favor PYM county. They have had plenty of ocean enhanced stuff, but pure OES? I’m not sure. 

 

9 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

There are probably no records for this, but what is the biggest purely OES event ever for the Cape and Islands

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there’s really no way to tell without doing a deep analysis and unfortunately the coop data from the Cape isn’t that great. 
 

My guess is somewhere has gotten a foot before at some point but it probably wasn’t recorded at an official site. Hard to get much more than that unless everything was ridiculously perfect for days. 

We know there been 24”+ events when you include NORLUN events there that were enhanced by OES…but pure OES is a much tougher thing. 

It's tough too because the ocean is pretty vast, good ocean/lake effect needs land nearby to focus the lift within one or two dominant bands. That's why this is performing so well. LI/CT shores are confining the band to its current location and it just waffles with the wind direction. 

But in big arctic outbreaks you see the streamers from cold air pouring off the continent but they rarely organize into single dominant bands, they organize into smaller convective rolls. You can get some that are more dominant, but usually because they originate from a water feature bounded by land (Penobscot Bay, NY Bight, Narragansett Bay, etc). 

There's a reason the LES from Lake Michigan is more potent on a north wind vs. a west wind, and it's not just the longer fetch. The band parallel to the land features is just more focused.

[SouthCoastMA]

On 12/19/2022 at 11:55 AM, SouthCoastMA said:

The GFS still has a signal for 1-2" OES on the Cape Christmas Eve day, from the wsw flow. None of the other models are as bullish

GFS had this first, surprisingly. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's tough too because the ocean is pretty vast, good ocean/lake effect needs land nearby to focus the lift within one or two dominant bands. That's why this is performing so well. LI/CT shores are confining the band to its current location and it just waffles with the wind direction. 

But in big arctic outbreaks you see the streamers from cold air pouring off the continent but they rarely organize into single dominant bands, they organize into smaller convective rolls. You can get some that are more dominant, but usually because they originate from a water feature bounded by land (Penobscot Bay, NY Bight, Narragansett Bay, etc). 

There's a reason the LES from Lake Michigan is more potent on a north wind vs. a west wind, and it's not just the longer fetch. The band parallel to the land features is just more focused.

Yep. That’s why NNE winds aren’t bad either…they can use the shoreline as a bit of a way to converge bands toward the PYM area. Or even NNW can sometimes sort of converge on the outer Cape using the bay side shoreline as a way to organize them a bit more. But neither are as efficient as LI sound where you have shoreline on both sides…like in LES. 
 

Pretty cool seeing it today. 

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

RIP to that transmitter.

Sounds like our stuff may have been on that one.

Dude standing there with the short sleeves. Almost looks photoshoped in.

[ORH_wxman]

Northern part of Falmouth up to Bourne and Sandwich getting it pretty good. 
 

 

[CarverWX]

Man now I know how @Coastalwx felt when I was enjoying my rt44 snow storm. So close but so far for a white Christmas.

[SouthCoastMA]

The best is just south of here but the ground is white so can't complain. maybe 1/2" of fluff. I could see there being 1-2" in Falmouth and along 130S down through Forestdale

[moneypitmike]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Northern part of Falmouth up to Bourne and Sandwich getting it pretty good. 
 

 

Looks like it's just tickling Marion where my daughter had gone to school.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

At noon, NYC was 12° and the coldest hourly reporting station in Maine was IZG at 15.  Not often one sees that temp regime.

Significant ice jam on the Sandy River, from the Farmington Falls bridge down 2-3 miles into New Sharon.  2nd smaller (~1 mi) jam in NS, above the quick water one sees from the Route 2 bridge and up to where Muddy Brook enters the river.  Would be nice if those ran before the flow calmed down.  Those jams are probably 3-4' thick and would remain, and increase, until the spring run.

Bigger and more damaging dam on the Androscoggin at the top of Rumford Falls.  Route 2 is closed, looks like 3+ feet on the road (with a few large ice cubes) based on an abandoned vehicle and some of the flooded buildings.