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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 5:27 PM, OceanStWx said:

FWIW, the EF Scale suggests the lower bound threshold for cell tower collapse is about 115 mph. 

Plausawa Hill is 1000 ft, plus the 190 ft tower gets you almost to 1200 ft. Model forecasts around 1200 ft for CON were around 70 kt sustained, so I don't think winds were quite that high.

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Seems like some kind of failure near the base considering “it was ripped out of the ground foundation and all”. Most of the 190’ self-supporting towers I’ve seen are rated to 90mph. I’d assume they didn’t exceed the load limits, but who knows?

Did you ever get an official peak gust from CON for the day after the outage? 

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 5:27 PM, OceanStWx said:

FWIW, the EF Scale suggests the lower bound threshold for cell tower collapse is about 115 mph. 

Plausawa Hill is 1000 ft, plus the 190 ft tower gets you almost to 1200 ft. Model forecasts around 1200 ft for CON were around 70 kt sustained, so I don't think winds were quite that high.

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Freezing the ground solid and then putting several inches of rain into it with a rapid thaw def decreases the amount of force it takes to knock things over. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 5:44 PM, dendrite said:

Seems like some kind of failure near the base considering “it was ripped out of the ground foundation and all”. Most of the 190’ self-supporting towers I’ve seen are rated to 90mph. I’d assume they didn’t exceed the load limits, but who knows?

Did you ever get an official peak gust from CON for the day after the outage? 

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As far as I know, the data is gone during the outage, but we had a 51 mph before the ASOS went down.

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Modfan2

Modfan2

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 5:46 PM, bobbutts said:

Freezing the ground solid and then putting several inches of rain into it with a rapid thaw def decreases the amount of force it takes to knock things over. 

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But a lattice tower like that should have had guide wires. Plenty equipment I worked on FL were on similar towers; only one I saw over was from Hurricane Michael.

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 6:00 PM, Modfan2 said:

But a lattice tower like that should have had guide wires. Plenty equipment I worked on FL were on similar towers; only one I saw over was from Hurricane Michael.

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The page here https://nediv.arrl.org/2022/12/23/tower-collapse-concord-nh/ said it was free standing which I took to mean without guide wires. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

At noon, NYC was 12° and the coldest hourly reporting station in Maine was IZG at 15.  Not often one sees that temp regime.

Significant ice jam on the Sandy River, from the Farmington Falls bridge down 2-3 miles into New Sharon.  2nd smaller (~1 mi) jam in NS, above the quick water one sees from the Route 2 bridge and up to where Muddy Brook enters the river.  Would be nice if those ran before the flow calmed down.  Those jams are probably 3-4' thick and would remain, and increase, until the spring run.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 6:40 PM, OceanStWx said:

2022-12-24_13-38-54.png?width=590&height

No, it was on 8 ft concrete pads sunk into the ground. But it managed to pull one up completely.

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Was there precip at the time? Maybe there was a very quick brief spin up TOR and it landed on the tower then went back up. It’s like Independence Day when the UFO went over the White House and boom 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 7:10 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

There are probably no records for this, but what is the biggest purely OES event ever for the Cape and Islands?

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Yeah there’s really no way to tell without doing a deep analysis and unfortunately the coop data from the Cape isn’t that great. 
 

My guess is somewhere has gotten a foot before at some point but it probably wasn’t recorded at an official site. Hard to get much more than that unless everything was ridiculously perfect for days. 

We know there been 24”+ events when you include NORLUN events there that were enhanced by OES…but pure OES is a much tougher thing. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 7:10 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

There are probably no records for this, but what is the biggest purely OES event ever for the Cape and Islands?

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I have no idea. To be honest, they do best on N or NNW flow and that’s usually for the outer cape. NE winds more favor PYM county. They have had plenty of ocean enhanced stuff, but pure OES? I’m not sure. 

 

  On 12/24/2022 at 7:10 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

There are probably no records for this, but what is the biggest purely OES event ever for the Cape and Islands

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 7:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there’s really no way to tell without doing a deep analysis and unfortunately the coop data from the Cape isn’t that great. 
 

My guess is somewhere has gotten a foot before at some point but it probably wasn’t recorded at an official site. Hard to get much more than that unless everything was ridiculously perfect for days. 

We know there been 24”+ events when you include NORLUN events there that were enhanced by OES…but pure OES is a much tougher thing. 

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It's tough too because the ocean is pretty vast, good ocean/lake effect needs land nearby to focus the lift within one or two dominant bands. That's why this is performing so well. LI/CT shores are confining the band to its current location and it just waffles with the wind direction. 

But in big arctic outbreaks you see the streamers from cold air pouring off the continent but they rarely organize into single dominant bands, they organize into smaller convective rolls. You can get some that are more dominant, but usually because they originate from a water feature bounded by land (Penobscot Bay, NY Bight, Narragansett Bay, etc). 

There's a reason the LES from Lake Michigan is more potent on a north wind vs. a west wind, and it's not just the longer fetch. The band parallel to the land features is just more focused.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 7:25 PM, OceanStWx said:

It's tough too because the ocean is pretty vast, good ocean/lake effect needs land nearby to focus the lift within one or two dominant bands. That's why this is performing so well. LI/CT shores are confining the band to its current location and it just waffles with the wind direction. 

But in big arctic outbreaks you see the streamers from cold air pouring off the continent but they rarely organize into single dominant bands, they organize into smaller convective rolls. You can get some that are more dominant, but usually because they originate from a water feature bounded by land (Penobscot Bay, NY Bight, Narragansett Bay, etc). 

There's a reason the LES from Lake Michigan is more potent on a north wind vs. a west wind, and it's not just the longer fetch. The band parallel to the land features is just more focused.

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Yep. That’s why NNE winds aren’t bad either…they can use the shoreline as a bit of a way to converge bands toward the PYM area. Or even NNW can sometimes sort of converge on the outer Cape using the bay side shoreline as a way to organize them a bit more. But neither are as efficient as LI sound where you have shoreline on both sides…like in LES. 
 

Pretty cool seeing it today. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 12/24/2022 at 6:17 PM, tamarack said:

At noon, NYC was 12° and the coldest hourly reporting station in Maine was IZG at 15.  Not often one sees that temp regime.

Significant ice jam on the Sandy River, from the Farmington Falls bridge down 2-3 miles into New Sharon.  2nd smaller (~1 mi) jam in NS, above the quick water one sees from the Route 2 bridge and up to where Muddy Brook enters the river.  Would be nice if those ran before the flow calmed down.  Those jams are probably 3-4' thick and would remain, and increase, until the spring run.

Expand  

Bigger and more damaging dam on the Androscoggin at the top of Rumford Falls.  Route 2 is closed, looks like 3+ feet on the road (with a few large ice cubes) based on an abandoned vehicle and some of the flooded buildings.

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