"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[JC-CT]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

It is still blowing 50+. 

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Good, an active personal life is healthy at any age

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

I'm still blowing at 50+. 

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Wow...you must keep in good shape. How is the gag reflex?

[ORH_wxman]

Almost dead calm here now. Sun trying to poke out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:16 PM, JC-CT said:

Good, an active personal life is healthy at any age

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Low hanging fruit

[TalcottWx]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Almost dead calm here now. Sun trying to poke out. 

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Kicking back up here again.

[CoastalWx]

Pervs.

[OceanStWx]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:21 PM, CoastalWx said:

Pervs.

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Jacqui Jeras just left the board. 

[weatherwiz]

Even though obs aren't terribly impressive to the southwest in terms of wind, you have to winder if that changes here. Looking at mesoanalysis, RAP, and HRRR it seems the ingredients are all there for some big winds here. RAP has about 100 J/KG of SBCAPE and MLCAPE, with 50-75+ J of 3KM CAPE and low-level lapse rates steepen to around 7 C/KM with even steeper 2-6km lapse rates.

And look at these pressure changes which should continue to see an increasing delta

[Lava Rock]

2.42". Pack still holding on. 47.5F

[SJonesWX]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Almost dead calm here now. Sun trying to poke out. 

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be careful, you’re in the eye. per a movie I once saw, if you go outside you will instantly freeze

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We haven’t gusted over 35mph here yet. Some limbs down on the east side of town but we’ve been spared so far. Women and children are packed though, ready to flee if round 2 rips our home off its foundation. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Flash freeze threat really increasing.  With rain changing to snow squalls as temps drop quickly. Already 44 here. Won’t have to drop much when the front comes. 

[ariof]

52˚ temperature differential in New York State right now.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:27 PM, weatherwiz said:

Even though obs aren't terribly impressive to the southwest in terms of wind, you have to winder if that changes here. Looking at mesoanalysis, RAP, and HRRR it seems the ingredients are all there for some big winds here. RAP has about 100 J/KG of SBCAPE and MLCAPE, with 50-75+ J of 3KM CAPE and low-level lapse rates steepen to around 7 C/KM with even steeper 2-6km lapse rates.

And look at these pressure changes which should continue to see an increasing delta

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Get loose , get naked, get footloose and fancy free!

[ORH_wxman]

Man obs (that’s -2F for those at home)

KCLE 231509Z 23028G37KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV014 M19/M23 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 21037/1508 TWR VIS 1 P0000 T11891233

[TalcottWx]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:27 PM, weatherwiz said:

Even though obs aren't terribly impressive to the southwest in terms of wind, you have to winder if that changes here. Looking at mesoanalysis, RAP, and HRRR it seems the ingredients are all there for some big winds here. RAP has about 100 J/KG of SBCAPE and MLCAPE, with 50-75+ J of 3KM CAPE and low-level lapse rates steepen to around 7 C/KM with even steeper 2-6km lapse rates.

And look at these pressure changes which should continue to see an increasing delta

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Radar really blew up over NJ.

[powderfreak]

BTV gust to 70mph.

2nd highest wind gust all-time.

[ineedsnow]

Car showing the temp is 56 at the walmart in Gardner temp crash will be fun later  still hanging onto snow otg here 

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:29 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Flash freeze threat really increasing.  With rain changing to snow squalls as temps drop quickly. Already 44 here. Won’t have to drop much when the front comes. 

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Yeah, I'm sensing a 1/2" blizzard and flash freeze that causes a mega clusterF on the roads.

[tamarack]

Still lower 30s as CAD hangs tough.  Probably howling winds at 925 overhead but unless/until the RA+ blows away these 30s temps, wind will remain modest.

[weatherwiz]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:31 PM, TalcottWx said:

Radar really blew up over NJ.

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Nearly a 150 knot ULJ streak providing substantial upper-level divergence in our region. Based on the ingredients I listed above, combined with this jet support, I think we are going to see a significant line move through. I guess we have the wind advisories out, but I am also shocked there isn't discussion for a severe thunderstorm watch, especially since there is some lightning generation.

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:33 PM, ineedsnow said:

Car showing the temp is 56 at the walmart in Gardner temp crash will be fun later  still hanging onto snow otg here 

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We toss that due to the Walmart Effect.

[OceanStWx]

HIE gusted to 51 kt making the 55 and 51 kt gusts today the #1 and #2 gusts there since the ASOS was installed in 1996. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

56F

Still blowing outside but not nearly as ferocious as a few hours ago.

[alex]

  On 12/23/2022 at 2:50 PM, OceanStWx said:

This is the reason our flood threat is pretty low. It's still snowing in the headwaters and whatever changeover comes will be brief and easily absorbed by the snow.

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It’s interesting how localized my flood threat is. The Ammo starts just a few miles from my house (it comes out of Lakes of the Clouds), so what it does is really dependent on just the few miles between my house and the top of Mt Washington. So far so good, but keeping an eye on it. 44F, pack down to 7”. Would be nice to keep a few just for looks lol

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/23/2022 at 3:29 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Man obs (that’s -2F for those at home)

KCLE 231509Z 23028G37KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV014 M19/M23 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 21037/1508 TWR VIS 1 P0000 T11891233

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We pray for something similar here someday but know those prayers will go unanswered. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This event shushed the doubters very quickly 

[Roger Smith]

Some estimates of timing for the front ... in EST

NYC _ 1130

central LI w CT 1200

central CT and Springfield MA 1300

ORH-PVD 1340

BOS 1420

Cape Cod 1530

Expect about a one-hour lag for sharp temp drops after the fropa

I would expect it to be a discontinuous squall line with isolated gusts to 70 mph possible but 50-55 more general, lasting about a half hour, then 35-45 during the CAA. 

 

[WeatherWilly]

Not really that impressive down here as far as wind or rain. Most power outages are scattered in Rhode Island and almost none at all in the south/southwest part of the state.

[WinterWolf]

Doesn’t want to stop raining here..