"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

This.  Wind forecasts almost always underperform.  March 2010 being an exception.

There is a huge discriminator between events which produce and events which don't and it puzzles me how every time we go into these highly dynamic events whistles and alarms go off for wind, only for these to be retracted a bit. Unless there is a strong signal that low-level lapse rates are going to be steep or you're not going to get the high end potential. Of course higher elevations and coastal plain are different where you have a better chance too. A 50-60 mph wind gusts event in the winter is not uncommon. Will there be power outages, yes. Will there be widespread power outages, no. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

I would defer to the hi-res models to see if a snow squall line actually makes it through.  Earlier this morning, only the RGEM showed it, all the US hi-res models (NAM 3K, HRRR, FV3) showed a squall line that was rain-only except for the highest elevations up north.

The squall line with the fropa isn't going to be snow

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is a huge discriminator between events which produce and events which don't and it puzzles me how every time we go into these highly dynamic events whistles and alarms go off for wind, only for these to be retracted a bit. Unless there is a strong signal that low-level lapse rates are going to be steep or you're not going to get the high end potential. Of course higher elevations and coastal plain are different where you have a better chance too. A 50-60 mph wind gusts event in the winter is not uncommon. Will there be power outages, yes. Will there be widespread power outages, no. 

50MPH through bare trees is yawn worthy....need 65-70 to see anything widespread...

[dryslot]

The hope although as slim as it usually is some anafront snow once the front moves thru if there is still qpf left, Temps will fall on there face post fropa.

[tamarack]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

This.  Wind forecasts almost always underperform.  March 2010 being an exception.

Also October 2017 in Maine.  CMP had about 500k customers w/o power, 10% more than the during the 1998 ice storm, though that earlier event caused far more infrastructure damage and thus much greater delays in turning on the lights.  Probably serving 50-100k more customers in '17 than 19 years earlier, too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is a huge discriminator between events which produce and events which don't and it puzzles me how every time we go into these highly dynamic events whistles and alarms go off for wind, only for these to be retracted a bit. Unless there is a strong signal that low-level lapse rates are going to be steep or you're not going to get the high end potential. Of course higher elevations and coastal plain are different where you have a better chance too. A 50-60 mph wind gusts event in the winter is not uncommon. Will there be power outages, yes. Will there be widespread power outages, no. 

A driver in a pickup truck in Tolland was just spotted in an uncontrollable road rage. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A driver in a pickup truck in Tolland was just spotted in an uncontrollable road rage. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A driver in a pickup truck in Tolland was just spotted in an uncontrollable road rage. 

He may need some professional help if this flops. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

50MPH through bare trees is yawn worthy....need 65-70 to see anything widespread...

This is far from true in SE and SW screamer wind events like this.We’re gonna be ripping 50-60+ gusts for many hours out of directions trees are not accustomed to.  NW wind events I’ll give you This is going to cause huge problems 

[CT Rain]

I don't get the "wind forecasts always underperform" thing. I feel like most of our forecasts verify fairly well at the ASOS stations. If you're looking at the HRRR/Euro or whatever raw model output though and taking that as a forecast you're going to be disappointed.

[Brian5671]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This is far from true in SE and SW screamer wind events like this. NW wind events I’ll give you 

That is true-SE winds are worse.   We'll have to break the inversion though....certainly iffy on that but HRRR does the trick...

[kdxken]

Loosened up a few sketchy ones. Wind should do the rest.

 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He may need some professional help if this flops. 

Not much else to hang one's hat on...the long range looks terrible so this is all we got for awhile most likely

[Whineminster]

BOX really doesn't seem to be hitting this thing that hard in their AFD, kinda poo pooing it. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Is that different than any other event there?

Any event that has "widespread outages" you can bet that my location will be joining in on it. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Eversource probably doesn't have much a choice to say that in CT lol. 

Nope.  There has been a push to trim back trees since one of the tropical storms did damage about 10 years ago, but I don't think it has made much of a difference.  Power lines and their close proximity to trees never mix well during wind events...and heavy snow events.

[Cold Miser]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is far from true in SE and SW screamer wind events like this.We’re gonna be ripping 50-60+ gusts for many hours out of directions trees are not accustomed to.  NW wind events I’ll give you This is going to cause huge problems 

What about the trees that have lived, and survived for decades, even centuries through storms of yore?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Any event that has "widespread outages" you can bet that my location will be joining in on it. 

Nope.  There has been a push to trim back trees since one of the tropical storms did damage about 10 years ago, but I don't think it has made much of a difference.  Power lines and their close proximity to trees never mix well during wind events...and heavy snow events.

They’ve been trimming back trees from lines around here, sporadically, the past couple years but the impact is practically negligible.

[SouthCoastMA]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not much else to hang one's hat on...the long range looks terrible so this is all we got for awhile most likely

I guess..

I'll take having electricity on Christmas Eve/Christmas with a crappy upcoming two weeks of winter 

vs

no electricity on Christmas Eve/Christmas with a crappy upcoming two weeks of winter

[Cold Miser]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They’ve been trimming back trees from lines around here, sporadically, the past couple years but the impact is practically negligible.

Indeed.  What I have noticed is this push to trim back trees along the highway, probably the place that needs it least.  Barren land off of 395 in may spots well into the woods.  Odd since there are zero power lines there, but I think it has to do with the sun getting to the snow or some sh.it like that.  I don't entirely get the thinking there. 

[Patrick-02540]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Eversource probably doesn't have much a choice to say that in CT lol. 

With 4-mph winds, Eversource just lost a line here in Woodbury, forcing a two-hour closure of Route 6 around the Southbury border.   
God help us later tonight and tomorrow.  

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

With 4-mph winds, Eversource just lost a line here in Woodbury, forcing a two-hour closure of Route 6 around the Southbury border.   
God help us later tonight and tomorrow.  

Sounds about right.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I guess..

I'll take having electricity on Christmas Eve/Christmas with a crappy upcoming two weeks of winter 

vs

no electricity on Christmas Eve/Christmas with a crappy upcoming two weeks of winter

Have to say that would suck-especially with bitter cold....

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They’ve been trimming back trees from lines around here, sporadically, the past couple years but the impact is practically negligible.

Same here-it's like pushing the tide back with a broom given how wooded parts of the area are....

[moneypitmike]

p/c in Westborough is 48mph.  

PIT2 does it right

Friday

Rain. High near 50. Very windy, with a southeast wind around 40 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Friday Night

Rain and snow showers likely before 11pm, then a chance of snow showers between 11pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Very windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[Whineminster]

8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Indeed.  What I have noticed is this push to trim back trees along the highway, probably the place that needs it least.  Barren land off of 395 in may spots well into the woods.  Odd since there are zero power lines there, but I think it has to do with the sun getting to the snow or some sh.it like that.  I don't entirely get the thinking there. 

Road side safety, more clearance in case someone flys off the road, more space before they hit a tree 

[CT Rain]

Could see 1-2" of Sound Effect Snow SE CT and South County RI

[bristolri_wx]

26 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

BOX really doesn't seem to be hitting this thing that hard in their AFD, kinda poo pooing it. 

Quote

The main concern tonight into Friday will be the wind. These low
pressures are continuing to strengthen, generating a low level
jet of 60-80 kt at 925 mb. The core of this jet is focused
mainly across the eastern half of southern New England, where
High Wind Warnings continue. Farther west, Wind Advisories are
in effect, including Worcester and NW MIddlesex counties, which
were previously in a watch. Just not confident these areas will
be able to tap into the stronger jet, despite the higher
elevation.

 

[UnitedWx]

Showers have started in Simsbury. 36 degrees and moooovin' on up

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Could see 1-2" of Sound Effect Snow SE CT and South County RI

Would be a nice consolation prize for some:

HRRR

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Could see 1-2" of Sound Effect Snow SE CT and South County RI

what a rare event that is...although I bet it was more common in colder days of yore