"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[snowman21]

This might be the coldest air mass we see all winter especially for the northeast where we really only get one true arctic blast that lasts for a couple of days each season.

[jbenedet]

This looks like sustained tropical storm force out to Rte 1 in NH seacoast. Expensive real estate, and lots of people included in that area. That's gonna cause problems.

[Cyclone-68]

Seems like it’s been a while since a system affected as wide an area of the country simultaneously as this one is?

[512high]

Just now, jbenedet said:

This looks like sustained tropical storm force out to Rte 1 in NH seacoast. Expensive real estate, and lots of people included in that area. That's gonna cause problems.

There go all the irrigation systems I service in that area.....(Job security 2023)

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

Seems like it’s been a while since a system affected as wide an area of the country simultaneously as this one is?

Not really...it's happened each of the past few winters. The big difference is this one is occurring during one of, if not, the busiest travel week, shipping week, etc. of the year. 

[moneypitmike]

48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cloudy and 39

Feels and smells like a snowstorm is coming 

Don't worry  One isn't

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This looks like sustained tropical storm force out to Rte 1 in NH seacoast. Expensive real estate, and lots of people included in that area. That's gonna cause problems.

I'm honestly more worried about the flooding into Great Bay and places like the Hampton River getting stuck and freezing in place. Even the flip to WSW winds is going to tend to slosh the water into the backside of Route 1. 

[dendrite]

3k NAM has some 75kt gusts to the sfc in W VT. 100kt at H85 over Lake Champlain

[moneypitmike]

Methinks the GFS qpf output is broken.

[WinterWolf]

Still sunny here…lol. 

[weatherwiz]

This 12z NAM bufkit for BUF is ridiculous 

The momentum transfer is toggled to 10 so that could be overstating the winds 

 

THIS IS THE BEST PART THOUGH...HOLY SMOKES

 

[WinterWolf]

Unfortunately for us non METS, what does that mean/show? 

[moneypitmike]

It really does suck to be on the warm side of this.  Oh well.  Maybe we'll win in 2122. 

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Unfortunately for us non METS, what does that mean/show? 

the focus on the top was the winds...potentially sustained 30-40 mph there with gusts upwards of 70 mph. The bottom is showing substantial upward vertical motion in the DGZ which is essentially several feet above the ground. That's advertising 2-3'' per hour rates for a prolonged period. 

[KTBFFH1905]

Yesterday in Cheyenne, WY between 1:05pm - 1:35pm the temp fell from 43 to 3 degrees! 

[jbenedet]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm honestly more worried about the flooding into Great Bay and places like the Hampton River getting stuck and freezing in place. Even the flip to WSW winds is going to tend to slosh the water into the backside of Route 1. 

Yea. Agreed. Lots of vulnerable spots in these areas. But if I had to pick most at risk it would be Portsmouth/Kittery at the mouth of the Piscataqua. I've seen the winds rip in this area with much weaker setups, but the severe conditions usually confined to right on the coast - inside rte 1A. This situation is obviously much different.

Are there any good historical analogs?

[512high]

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. Agreed. Lots of vulnerable spots in these areas. But if I had to pick most at risk it would be Portsmouth/Kittery at the mouth of the Piscataqua. I've seen the winds rip in this area with much weaker setups, but the severe conditions usually confined to right on the coast - inside rte 1A. This situation is obviously much different.

Are there any good historical analogs?

Blizzard 78 and I think some in the 1990s,meaning severe tidal route 1 area

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, KTBFFH1905 said:

Yesterday in Cheyenne, WY between 1:05pm - 1:35pm the temp fell from 43 to 3 degrees! 

 

[Lava Rock]

Be sad to see a decent snowcover go bye bye

 

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

Be sad to see a decent snowcover go bye bye

http://weather911.net/capture2.jpg

Snow cover?  What a concept.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. Agreed. Lots of vulnerable spots in these areas. But if I had to pick most at risk it would be Portsmouth/Kittery at the mouth of the Piscataqua. I've seen the winds rip in this area with much weaker setups, but the severe conditions usually confined to right on the coast - inside rte 1A. This situation is obviously much different.

Are there any good historical analogs?

Cleveland Super Bomb.

[OceanStWx]

13 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. Agreed. Lots of vulnerable spots in these areas. But if I had to pick most at risk it would be Portsmouth/Kittery at the mouth of the Piscataqua. I've seen the winds rip in this area with much weaker setups, but the severe conditions usually confined to right on the coast - inside rte 1A. This situation is obviously much different.

Are there any good historical analogs?

Locally I think we're rivaling October 2017 for the LLJ, but it's a very different boundary layer environment. Obviously there wasn't any snowcover in 2017, and I think that will reduce the wind threat from max potential for the interior. 

[Ginx snewx]

Damn @WxWatcher007you chasing? 75 mph winds 3 feet of snow right where you were last month

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cleveland Super Bomb.

That had an effect on the SNH/ME coast?  

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That had an effect on the SNH/ME coast?  

It did a couple weeks later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

What impact does that have on winds?

It will cause me to feel every bit as indifferent about them as always.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That had an effect on the SNH/ME coast?  

I’m not sure but the overall looks similar. 

[Cold Miser]

49 minutes ago, KTBFFH1905 said:

Yesterday in Cheyenne, WY between 1:05pm - 1:35pm the temp fell from 43 to 3 degrees! 

Actual footage of it happening.

 

[OceanStWx]

I've been pouring over my local wind research for any insights on this one, and it's interesting to note the depth of the 925 layer at PWM. Current forecasts are ~ 620-630 m. That's not the lowest I've seen, but it's in the bottom half. The lower the height the more likely you find good wind gusts as long as your lapse rates aren't negative. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Lava rock losing power?