"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[moneypitmike]

chilly event on the rock pile.

Today

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Wind chill values as low as -3. Breezy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Tonight

Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 24 by 5am. Wind chill values as low as -4. Very windy, with a southeast wind 30 to 40 mph increasing to 50 to 60 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Friday

Rain, snow, and freezing rain before 3pm, then snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 3pm and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 37. Very windy, with a southeast wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow before 8pm, then snow showers likely between 8pm and 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 0. Wind chill values as low as -34. Very windy, with a southwest wind 70 to 75 mph decreasing to 60 to 65 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday

Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 3. Very windy, with a southwest wind around 50 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph.

Saturday Night

[jbenedet]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lucky

That's too much of a good thing, as a snow lover.

Coupled with the high winds and severe cold, power outage threat, definitely another state of emergency in the making.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That's too much of a good thing, as a snow lover.

Coupled with the high winds and severe cold, power outage threat, definitely another state of emergency in the making.

Yeah the impact this time will be significantly worse than their previous lake effect storm.

It's much colder, winds will be ferocious and there's even lake flooding expected. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Quite the snow burst for portions of central and eastern PA for the past few hours...

Ya I noticed that.  I don’t remember that being forecast like that? Surprise number 1 from this system. 
 

And I wasn’t expecting bright sunny skies this morning here…was forecast to be overcast. 

[jbenedet]

Subtle shifts, but the EPS has been trending towards an earlier/further south vertically stacked solution. 

It's shifted ~250 miles further south and east since 12z 12/20 runs. 

May not mean much in terms of the clown maps, but the current H5 depiction looks a lot more severe for Upstate NY, VT and western MA than 12/20 runs.

[MJO812]

Cloudy and 39

Feels and smells like a snowstorm is coming 

[rimetree]

12z reggie brings the low basically overhead and then due north. Probably doesn't matter but not sure it's been depicted that far e/se.

[tamarack]

Will be windy at Isle Au Haut

Today

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight

Rain, mainly after 1am. Low around 39. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 35 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday

Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 51. Very windy, with an east wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Friday Night

Rain showers likely, possibly mixing with snow after midnight, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph decreasing to 35 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Windy, with a southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow showers between 7pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Christmas Day

Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Windy.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Subtle shifts, but the EPS has been trending towards an earlier/further south vertically stacked solution. 

It's shifted ~250 miles further south and east since 12z 12/20 runs. 

May not mean much in terms of the clown maps, but the current H5 depiction looks a lot more severe for Upstate NY, and western MA than 12/20 runs.

Makes sense....have a last second miracle trend so that its close enough for me to make out the fingerprint of old man winter as he flips me the byrd.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cloudy and 39

Feels and smells like a another do doo is coming 

Messy cruiser?

[weatherwiz]

Hi-res showing a decent amount of 3km CAPE traversing CT, RI, and SE MA just ahead of that low topped line early afternoon...right along the leading edge of the Arctic air. Lightning products even suggesting lighting. Wouldn't e surprised to see several SVR's tomorrow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

A yes.. I’m looking for a Mr. Dobolina.. Mr. Bob Dobolina 

[jbenedet]

Gonna be pretty damn awesome to see the Northern Mid Atlantic with highs in the single digits and some 10-20 degrees colder than Eastern NH and Maine on Saturday.

[Ginx snewx]

29/25 freezing rain sleet to start tonight?

[jbenedet]

Highest temperature 18z saturday, down to Virginia/North Carolina border will be in Eastport Maine. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

29/25 freezing rain sleet to start tonight?

31.5 here.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

31.5 here.

Winds east already. Should warm up outside interior zones and SNH. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A yes.. I’m looking for a Mr. Dobolina.. Mr. Bob Dobolina 

I thought it could precipitate, the models always fool me

[jbenedet]

33/24 in PSM already. East winds didn't even start yet. Looking like a 45 by midnight type day at PSM.

[Modfan2]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Makes sense....have a last second miracle trend so that its close enough for me to make out the fingerprint of old man winter as he flips me the byrd.

What impact does that have on winds?

[MJO812]

This is going around social media lol

[jbenedet]

ESE winds are rocking on the NH coast by 6z Friday. Not sure how that doesn't spike dews up to Winne, so that its just white rain by that time.. My guess is ~half of this is in NH and MA (south of the whites) is of the white rain variety. The southern greens, best chance it's "real".

 

[dendrite]

There's a new all-time December record low temp for Casper....they hit -42F before midnight local time. Ironically their only other -40s in December were 12/21 as well in 1990. They'll beat today's record with another -41 or -42 in the books. So it'll go into the records with 2 days with -40s when their previous record history, going back to 1939, had only 1 day total.

Bozeman is down to -44F. That's their 2nd coldest Dec temp on record.

edit...looks like the CPR reading is an all-time record low...not just for Dec.

[MJO812]

My friend in St Paul Minnesota is down to -9 right now

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

What impact does that have on winds?

Even stronger and they were already strong 

[KTBFFH1905]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cloudy and 39

Feels and smells like a snowstorm is coming 

I said the exact thing to my daughters this morning at the bus stop. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There's a new all-time December record low temp for Casper....they hit -42F before midnight local time. Ironically their only other -40s in December were 12/21 as well in 1990. They'll beat today's record with another -41 or -42 in the books. So it'll go into the records with 2 days with -40s when their previous record history, going back to 1939, had only 1 day total.

Bozeman is down to -44F. That's their 2nd coldest Dec temp on record.

edit...looks like the CPR reading is an all-time record low...not just for Dec.

This just makes me want to jump into a giant pit of lava

[KTBFFH1905]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My friend in St Paul Minnesota is down to -9 right now

My buddy in Prairie Village, KS showing -6 feels like -25

[Lava Rock]

There's a new all-time December record low temp for Casper....they hit -42F before midnight local time. Ironically their only other -40s in December were 12/21 as well in 1990. They'll beat today's record with another -41 or -42 in the books. So it'll go into the records with 2 days with -40s when their previous record history, going back to 1939, had only 1 day total.
Bozeman is down to -44F. That's their 2nd coldest Dec temp on record.
edit...looks like the CPR reading is an all-time record low...not just for Dec.

My godmother lives in Norris, down the road a but from Bozeman. Must be freezing her ass off.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My friend in St Paul Minnesota is down to -9 right now

That's not bad for them.