"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah guidance kicked up a bit. Nasty winds along front and just after fropa.

A few opportunities too. Convection along the warm front, better low level lapse rates after the warm fropa with a bit of warming, and then possible violence on the cold front. Pretty interesting setup. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Max gust of 43 here is my guess 

[apm]

 

Wow!!

 

[ma blizzard]

27 minutes ago, apm said:

 

Wow!!

 

crazy .. s+ at -9 and 0.12 in the bucket last hour 

[weathafella]

And that Denver reading is at the airport already in the high plains.  

[Damage In Tolland]

5 hours ago, CT Rain said:

A few opportunities too. Convection along the warm front, better low level lapse rates after the warm fropa with a bit of warming, and then possible violence on the cold front. Pretty interesting setup. 

This seems like a special one .

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This seems like a special one .

For CT, I've hit the predawn (2 to 5 am) period pretty hard and then again the late afternoon early evening period.

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully the potential is realized with lots of damage and long-lasting outages!

[Modfan2]

Latest wind gust from BOX

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, FXWX said:

For CT, I've hit the predawn (2 to 5 am) period pretty hard and then again the late afternoon early evening period.

It seems like right near and then after the front with SW winds is when it goes wild. SE and SW wind direction always do most damage to trees since they are used to the NW winds . Isaias great example of that 

[CoastalWx]

6z runs toned it down a bit. We’ll see what 12z does. Seems like models are fluctuating a bit on the LLJ near and behind front.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It seems like right near and then after the front with SW winds is when it goes wild. SE and SW wind direction always do most damage to trees since they are used to the NW winds . Isaias great example of that 

There won’t be much ahead of warm front where you are. It’s more just ahead and behind cold front.

[CoastalWx]

I guess maybe if convection is involved there could be right before we slot. But you’ll need that because it’s a bit inverted.

[FXWX]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It seems like right near and then after the front with SW winds is when it goes wild. SE and SW wind direction always do most damage to trees since they are used to the NW winds . Isaias great example of that 

Probably need to revisit 2nd highlighted wind potential period; window probably opens up for that by very late morning into early / mid afternoon period.  Models will waffle a bit with each run but overall signal has been pretty steady.  In these setups a degree or two change in the vertical profile can make all the difference between a pretty run of the mill event and a widespread issue.

[MJO812]

What this could have been for our area if this was a coastal 

[dryslot]

We're prepared

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gray ME
327 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

MEZ007>009-018>028-NHZ001>003-010-013-014-222030-
/O.UPG.KGYX.HW.A.0004.221223T1200Z-221224T0700Z/
/O.NEW.KGYX.HW.W.0004.221223T0600Z-221224T0700Z/
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Interior York-
Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal
Waldo-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Strafford-
Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-
Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron, Middle
Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, Rangeley,
Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, Long Pond,
Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman, Hollis,
Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington,
Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Greene,
Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls,
Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo,
Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo,
Winterport, Unity, Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery,
Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth,
Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin,
Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle,
Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland,
Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport,
Searsmont, Lincolnville, Errol, Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin,
Dummer, Milan, York Pond, Lancaster, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton,
Sugar Hill, Thornton, Waterville Valley, Woodstock, Barrington,
Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Salem,
Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter,
Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton,
and Seabrook
327 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, west central, and
  western Maine. Portions of central, northern, and southern New
  Hampshire.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 2 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution
if you must drive. Also secure outdoor holiday decorations.

&&

$$

[Ginx snewx]

Normally Synoptically a 1053 high to our north moving nne into Eastern Canada locking in would produce here however we are looking at an extremely rare event.  Have to admire this one. 

[dryslot]

Higher elevations should minimize their losses

[Ginx snewx]

9 hours ago, dendrite said:

huge standardized anomalies up there

What was IVT again?

[Modfan2]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Normally Synoptically a 1053 high to our north moving nne into Eastern Canada locking in would produce here however we are looking at an extremely rare event.  Have to admire this one. 

Seems highest winds east of us unless…..we get any convection to bring winds down. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Higher elevations should minimize their losses

Glacier that snow ice will last until late March April.

[Chris12WX]

11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

#yore

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Seems highest winds east of us unless…..we get any convection to bring winds down. 

Definitely.  HRRR gone wild with the convective elements bringing the winds and the dry slot mixing. Crazy if true.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

Latest wind gust from BOX

 

 

Not too impressive right there. Kevin gonna not like that map lol. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Not too impressive right there. Kevin gonna not like that map lol. 

Looks reasonable.  The rural hills will get those rogue mixing of convective gusts in the 60s. Pretty much what Kevin really thinks.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Not too impressive right there. Kevin gonna not like that map lol. 

What makes me anxious though is the long duration winds. You get 25mph sustained with gusts to even 40mph over 6+ hours around here and there will be power outages. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Looks reasonable.  The rural hills will get those rogue mixing of convective gusts in the 60s. Pretty much what Kevin really thinks.

Cool. He’s really pimping this event…hope he gets the goods. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What makes me anxious though is the long duration winds. You get 25mph sustained with gusts to even 40mph over 6+ hours around here and there will be power outages. 

True.  Hopefully we keep power. 

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Definitely.  HRRR gone wild with the convective elements bringing the winds and the dry slot mixing. Crazy if true.

Wow, bullseye right there for Ekonk Hill….just wondering how much a difference elevation makes with this if anything; me sitting at 275’ vs you at 600’ish?   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Cool. He’s really pimping this event…hope he gets the goods. 

Hope he gets the dark and cold Christmas he desires.