"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[powderfreak]

From BTV:

The low level jet will peak during the
morning hours, most likely between 4 AM and 9 AM, which will likely
be so strong that it will break through the mountain barrier
regardless of stability. As a result, dangerous wind gusts will
occur well away from the higher terrain. Looking at model data
reveals very strong 925 east-southeast winds increasing into the 70
to perhaps 90 knot range along the corridor from Essex Junction to
Middlebury, supporting peak winds in excess of 65 MPH. Multiple long-
time forecasters have not seen winds at this pressure level at this
magnitude in our region.

[Damage In Tolland]

It really is amazing how bad computer modeling screw shit up in Nina’s. Can you imagine living in Chicago thinking you’d have 1-2 feet and a region crippling blizzard not 2 days ago and are now looking at nothing. At least with us when it showed the blizzard it was 7-10 days out . And it was only 1 day. You almost just have to forecast off of knowledge 

[ORH_wxman]

Man that’s crazy on the front range

 

 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

From BTV:

The low level jet will peak during the
morning hours, most likely between 4 AM and 9 AM, which will likely
be so strong that it will break through the mountain barrier
regardless of stability. As a result, dangerous wind gusts will
occur well away from the higher terrain. Looking at model data
reveals very strong 925 east-southeast winds increasing into the 70
to perhaps 90 knot range along the corridor from Essex Junction to
Middlebury, supporting peak winds in excess of 65 MPH. Multiple long-
time forecasters have not seen winds at this pressure level at this
magnitude in our region.

I noticed that up there. The western slope downslope favored areas are going to roar. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It really is amazing how bad computer modeling screw shit up in Nina’s. Can you imagine living in Chicago thinking you’d have 1-2 feet and a region crippling blizzard not 2 days ago and are now looking at nothing. At least with us when it showed the blizzard it was 7-10 days out . And it was only 1 day. You almost just have to forecast off of knowledge 

I guess the “It’s Meteorology, not Modelology” saying is poignant now.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It really is amazing how bad computer modeling screw shit up in Nina’s. Can you imagine living in Chicago thinking you’d have 1-2 feet and a region crippling blizzard not 2 days ago and are now looking at nothing. At least with us when it showed the blizzard it was 7-10 days out . And it was only 1 day. You almost just have to forecast off of knowledge 

It’s been pretty bad the last few winters. Could be recency bias but they seem more prone to mid range errors and 11th hour hiccups. 

[wxeyeNH]

With this storm it is the wind I am worried about.  Our house has an unlimited horizon view to the southwest and west south west.  Being at 1100 feet the wind may really roar if it mixes down.  Our power source comes over our mountain so I am preparing for a long power loss.  We can heat by wood but people that rely on electric to run their furnace might be in trouble with temperatures dropping to below 10F and staying in the teens for a couple of days.

Our snowcover is down to 12".  We might get a quick inch or two at the begining but it will be interesting to see if we lose all of it.   Whatever is left will be like a glacier like.  All and all it will be interesting storm for sure up here.  More interesting to me than a run of a mill all snow event.

 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I noticed that up there. The western slope downslope favored areas are going to roar. 

Yeah, hoping for the best as that’s essentially BTV suburb area it gets into.  Never want to go into Christmas without power… or a roof.

[FXWX]

57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok, thanks John for the info. Good stuff. We’ll see how it plays out. 
 

I think more my point was..the winds don’t verify as forecast most times inland. Maybe they do this time. 

Always a crap shoot with southerly or southeasterly potential high wind events; many don't verify but as a forecaster you have layout the risks, but without hyping.  Give me a gradient driven northwest flow event anytime.  I wouldn't be shocked if the southwest / west strong wind later Friday ends up stealing the thunder from the south/southeast wind threat period.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man that’s crazy on the front range

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been pretty bad the last few winters. Could be recency bias but they seem more prone to mid range errors and 11th hour hiccups. 

It really is Ninas and tropical forcing. They just can’t resolve it. There is zero skill on MR and LR forecasting . You just have to toss all of it, analogs etc.. and just go off pattern recognition. Ninos are much better 

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

From BTV:

The low level jet will peak during the
morning hours, most likely between 4 AM and 9 AM, which will likely
be so strong that it will break through the mountain barrier
regardless of stability. As a result, dangerous wind gusts will
occur well away from the higher terrain. Looking at model data
reveals very strong 925 east-southeast winds increasing into the 70
to perhaps 90 knot range along the corridor from Essex Junction to
Middlebury, supporting peak winds in excess of 65 MPH. Multiple long-
time forecasters have not seen winds at this pressure level at this
magnitude in our region.

What level will 3K be at?

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

I think lots of folks have a miss understanding of what wind gust level causes damage and power issues across SNE.  No one is suggesting we are looking at 55 mph sustained winds.  But if any particular location hits 50 to 55 mph gust, damage will occur.  It may not be widespread but there will be damage to trees in the 50-55 mph gust area.  The question is how widespread will 55 mph gusts be.  Obviously, if an area sees multiple 50 to 55 gusts, the amount of tree damage will increase.  Also, 50-55 mph gusts occurring at tree top level is all you need.  That wind speed is rarely verified at ground level.  The point is 50 to 55 mph wind gust at tree top level is not meh in this region.  Even one 55 mph gusts is going to produce at least some damage in the area of occurrence.  The question is how frequent are 50+ mph gusts and is the coverage of the 50-55 gusts isolated, scattered or widespread.

A year ago last July we had a very short span of quick gusts...Under 15 minutes.  It only took one 50mph gust to break the right tree branches on to the right power lines for us to lose power for almost one week. 

[Cold Miser]

55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Was thinking the same thing…States gonna get a shafting. Canada gets the goods. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What level will 3K be at?

We wild 

[Ginx snewx]

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Cool and  shit

[TalcottWx]

Mets here have previously discussed how clueless we would be without historical analogs.

 BTV: "Multiple long-time forecasters have not seen winds at this pressure level at this magnitude in our region." 

Suggests an anomalous event to high end is certainly in the cards.

Certainly an ingredient in the forecast that can't be ignored. 

 

 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Mets here have previously discussed how clueless we would be without historical analogs.

 BTV: "Multiple long-time forecasters have not seen winds at this pressure level at this magnitude in our region." 

Suggests an anomalous event to high end is certainly in the cards.

Certainly an ingredient in the forecast that can't be ignored. 

 

 

 

Well that’s up in the mountains of Vermont…that’s not for us here. 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Always a crap shoot with southerly or southeasterly potential high wind events; many don't verify but as a forecaster you have layout the risks, but without hyping.  Give me a gradient driven northwest flow event anytime.  I wouldn't be shocked if the southwest / west strong wind later Friday ends up stealing the thunder from the south/southeast wind threat period.

Thats what I've been thinking all along.  Except for the usual suspect areas that have large exposure 

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, hoping for the best as that’s essentially BTV suburb area it gets into.  Never want to go into Christmas without power… or a roof.

huge standardized anomalies up there

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

A year ago last July we had a very short span of quick gusts...Under 15 minutes.  It only took one 50mph gust to break the right tree branches on to the right power lines for us to lose power for almost one week. 

Yep...

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Cool and  shit

that's nuts, we should see some pretty sharp temp drops but not like that... I have people in North ID, and they say it's basically been snowing, near blizzard conditions and wind chills well below zero for over a week now, just getting pummeled there.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

that's nuts, we should see some pretty sharp temp drops but not like that... I have people in North ID, and they say it's basically been snowing, near blizzard conditions and wind chills well below zero for over a week now, just getting pummeled there.

Yea it will be like that in western CT, Berks and Greens. There will be SE/SSE winds funneling relatively very warm moist air from the Atlantic, right up until UL heights crash. You’re looking at temps from 45-50 to 5-10. The deltas will be pretty damn close.
 

 

[CoastalWx]

@OceanStWxmentioned MOS has 50kts for BTV. For that product, that's unheard of. 

[CoastalWx]

May have some bodies blown into @backedgeapproachingyard. 

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It really is amazing how bad computer modeling screw shit up in Nina’s. Can you imagine living in Chicago thinking you’d have 1-2 feet and a region crippling blizzard not 2 days ago and are now looking at nothing. At least with us when it showed the blizzard it was 7-10 days out . And it was only 1 day. You almost just have to forecast off of knowledge 

ORD will still probably get 5-9 with subzero temps.

[CT Rain]

NAM/HRRR definitely have trended toward a more impressive wind event in SNE. It may rock in some towns tomorrow AM.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

NAM/HRRR definitely have trended toward a more impressive wind event in SNE. It may rock in some towns tomorrow AM.

I thought that winds weren't going to start up until tomorrow afternoon or night, with another round on Friday afternoon. Some strong ones tomorrow morning? Also, I'm bit surprised that there's just a wind advisory if we're expecting winds 50 to 65 mph? Do you think they'll upgrade the wind advisor to a high wind warning?

[CoastalWx]

Yeah guidance kicked up a bit. Nasty winds along front and just after fropa.