"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Congrats D.C.

That's a defect with those. Assumes last 6 hrs is snow. Nope.

[rimetree]

Any chance of decent squalls with this as the cold front pushes through? Even just a dusting on the end would be nice.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a defect with those. Assumes last 6 hrs is snow. Nope.

Of course, that was posted as a joke, no one believes DC is getting 6".  But damn, it would be funny if they did.

[Ginx snewx]

Is Lake Erie frozen at all? Reminds me of 77 when all the snow blew off Lake Erie into Buffalo

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Is Lake Erie frozen at all? Reminds me of 77 when all the snow blew off Lake Erie into Buffalo

Everything is wide open.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is Lake Erie frozen at all? Reminds me of 77 when all the snow blew off Lake Erie into Buffalo

Some areas around Buffalo will be over 100 inches before Jan 1.

Insane

[Whineminster]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thursday Night

Rain, possibly mixed with snow, becoming all rain after 10pm. Low around 34. Breezy, with an east wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Friday

Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 54. Windy, with a southeast wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday Night

Rain and snow likely before 8pm, then a chance of snow between 8pm and 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

That sustained for that long will do some damage for sure, everyone drinking dark and Stormy's.....in the dark. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

That sustained for that long will do some damage for sure, everyone drinking dark and Stormy's.....in the dark. 

Love dark and stormy’s  lol. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Everything is wide open.

That’s what she said?

[WinterWolf]

Looks like it’s safe to say that the “generational storm” calls were premature, and are gonna fall way short for many in the midwwest.  
 

It’s gonna be a good/major storm event for some out there, but generational it’s not gonna be the way it looks now. 

[UnitedWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Looks like it’s safe to say that the “generational storm” calls were premature, and are gonna fall way short for many in the midwwest.  
 

It’s gonna be a good/major storm event for some out there, but generational it’s not gonna be the way it looks now. 

Not even close

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks like it’s safe to say that the “generational storm” calls were premature, and are gonna fall way short for many in the midwwest.  
 

It’s gonna be a good/major storm event for some out there, but generational it’s not gonna be the way it looks now. 

I think it was NWS BUF saying it, and they still are. Looks pretty intense there. I didn't see this for any place else.

 

From a CONUS point of view, this is an impressive storm with some dynamics I have not seen in a long tine. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it was NWS BUF saying it, and they still are. Looks pretty intense there. I didn't see this for any place else.

 

From a CONUS point of view, this is an impressive storm with some dynamics I have not seen in a long tine. 

Ok fair enough.
 

I was referring to the “generational” monicker.  That was premature and hype. Is it Impressive?   Yes it looks to be. 

[SJonesWX]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks like it’s safe to say that the “generational storm” calls were premature, and are gonna fall way short for many in the midwwest.  
 

It’s gonna be a good/major storm event for some out there, but generational it’s not gonna be the way it looks now. 

i think they meant to say generator-ational

[Lava Rock]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it was NWS BUF saying it, and they still are. Looks pretty intense there. I didn't see this for any place else.

 

From a CONUS point of view, this is an impressive storm with some dynamics I have not seen in a long tine. 

If only it were snow. That would be generational would it not?

[Lava Rock]

Just now, SJonesWX said:

i think they meant to say generator-ational

yeah, I think I am going to set mine up outside before I leave for work tomorrow.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok fair enough.
 

I was referring to the “generational” monicker.  That was premature and hype. Is it Impressive?   Yes it looks to be. 

FWIW, I don't know if they'll be enough LES to really justify. It's subjective anyways..but it's going to be nuts there Friday into Saturday. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

yeah, I think I am going to set mine up outside before I leave for work tomorrow.

I have 90lbs of propane jut in case.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

FWIW, I don't know if they'll be enough LES to really justify. It's subjective anyways..but it's going to be nuts there Friday into Saturday. 

Yup I get it.  We’ll see how it plays out for everybody there…and here.  
 

I'm not sold on the winds here yet…they almost always underwhelm for most here inland (unless along the coast, or on a mountain top), but maybe this will be the 1%er this time around. 

[rimetree]

12z NAM seems to have cut back on the QPF here...I'll take it.

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, rimetree said:

12z NAM seems to have cut back on the QPF here...I'll take it.

Dry slot?

[dryslot]

Some of these projected wind gust on the 12z NAM 3k are pretty intense over a very large area at peak.

[rimetree]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

Dry slot?

Yeah, seems like the last few runs have curtailed it and the initial round of rain doesn't seem as robust. Went from like 3+ inches down under 2" now. Hope it holds.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some of these projected wind gust on the 12z NAM 3k are pretty intense over a very large area at peak.

It’s going to be a cold dark Christmas Eve for many.  

[weatherwiz]

I am not totally sold on a higher-end wind event region-wide within the warm sector of this. I think we'll see some gusts in the 40-50 mph range and of course higher within the typically favored higher elevation areas but there is a decent inversion on soundings and low-level lapse rates aren't the greatest. All in all this will be a typical cool season dynamic wind event...nothing over the top impressive. 

But there could be a low topped line that organizes and could enhance wind potential locally.

Winds will probably be more impressive with the CAA.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s going to be a cold dark Christmas Eve for many.  

I'm afraid its going to be unfortunately.

[rimetree]

73kts at Isles of Shoals Friday AM

[dryslot]

The AFD from GYX is a good statement to its potential,

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The forecast for a high impact storm system starting Thursday
night and lasting through Friday night has changed little since
the previous forecast package.

On Thursday night stacked low pressure within a sharply
negative 500 mb trough axis will approach from the Great Lakes
region with a surface warm front lifting northward. This will
result in overrunning precipitation breaking out over the CWA
from southwest to northeast through the overnight hours.
Boundary layer and surface temperatures across southern NH and
coastal ME should be warm enough for this to just fall as plain
rain but across the foothills and points north temperatures are
expected to be cold enough for a period of mixed wintry
precipitation. Later Thursday night temperatures aloft will
continue to warm but ground temperatures will likely remain near
the freezing mark and therefore locally slippery travel will be
possible until temperatures warm to above freezing areawide by
Friday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be
needed should confidence for slippery travel increase as we near
this event.

We will then sit in the warm sector for much of Friday with
temperatures warming into the middle 40s across the north to the
middle 50s in southern NH and coastal ME. Increasing mixing of
a southeasterly 75-100 kt 850 mb LLJ and 50-75 kt 925 mb jet
will result in increasing wind gusts up to 40-55 mph from late
morning onward, especially across the coastal plain, higher
terrain, and downslope of the White Mountains. Across the
foothills, a lingering inversion may limit wind gusts until
later Friday afternoon, with gusts mostly in the 40-50 mph range.
Given the potential high impact of winds of this magnitude and
direction as well as the recent power outages from our last
event, went ahead and hoisted a High Wind Watch for much of the
region in order to provide more lead time to power crews.

Rainfall will also increase through the day with ensemble means
pointing towards PWATs increasing to around 1.00" amongst strong
theta-e advection and dew points climbing well into the 40s.
There is the potential for rainfall rates up to around 1"/hr and
should this occur instances of flash flooding remain possible,
especially where snow cover remains and the ground is frozen. A
Flood Watch was not issued with this forecast package given the
threat for river flooding will mostly be limited to Saturday but
a watch may be needed in the near future.

A potent cold front will then sweep across the forecast area
from west to east on Friday afternoon and evening, bringing
sharply colder temperatures and the potential for a period of
damaging wind gusts. The region of greatest concern is across
the coastal plain of ME, Seacoast of NH, and across the higher
terrain where gusts up to 65 mph are possible. There is some
potential for locally higher gusts across the Mid-Coast as this
front crosses. This front may be accompanied by a fine
line/squall line, which would increase the likelihood for wind
damage.

Once the front crosses the threat for heavy rainfall and
damaging winds will diminish, although it will remain breezy
through Friday night with gusts up to 40 mph. Temperatures will
rapidly fall behind the front, allowing any remaining
precipitation to transition to snow before ending and setting
the stage for a potential flash freeze. This could result in
rapidly deteriorating travel conditions on Friday evening
through the overnight hours, especially since no salt will be
left on area roadways after the heavy rainfall.

Sub-freezing temperatures will then return behind this system
through early next week along with gusty winds, sending wind
chill values down into the single digits either side of zero.
This will unfortunately exasperate the impacts from remaining
power outages.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am not totally sold on a higher-end wind event region-wide within the warm sector of this. I think we'll see some gusts in the 40-50 mph range and of course higher within the typically favored higher elevation areas but there is a decent inversion on soundings and low-level lapse rates aren't the greatest. All in all this will be a typical cool season dynamic wind event...nothing over the top impressive. 

But there could be a low topped line that organizes and could enhance wind potential locally.

Winds will probably be more impressive with the CAA.

There's a 'model error' climate that suggests not being too liberal with wind. 

I admit to being somewhat weary of that and letting it influence my sense of 'urgency' leading this, and recognizing some of those factors you note - it's like given any reason to limit and we bust wind headlines..

However, Ryan's been posting some rather impressive material over the last couple of days - eventually...one of these times, we'll get a break through.  

We did have that over SE zones a couple three years ago.... folks may or may not recall that? I can't re the specific dates - but there was pig wind signal which turned out both true and false.  It was false here in the interior, but simultaneously OVER performed if anything over the SE coastal plain..etc.   I have this event in mind too - though it's not a analytic comparison...  just to point out that break through can take place.

[DomNH]

Looks like things may have at least sped up a hair where this is now a Friday event rather than lingering into Saturday AM. Still have extremely low hopes for my Sat AM flight but maybe there is hope.