"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Modfan2]

  On 12/20/2022 at 10:55 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would watch for 50-65mph gusts.  But I would not expect everyone to get those.   
 

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I would except the worst at the coast or higher elevated locations

[CT Rain]

  On 12/20/2022 at 10:06 PM, UnitedWx said:

Sorry. It's just my personality. The older I get the more the media freaking annoys me. I do appreciate your forecasts and I used to be a weather Watcher for Brad back in the mid 80s. Hell, I still have a Paul Cousins wvit hurricane tracking chart!

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I get it. In 17 years here I've never had anyone tell me or even implicitly pressure me to change the forecast.

In fact more often than not if the forecast changes for the worse (tornadoes, more snow, higher winds) it's met with groans and annoyance by everyone in the newsroom as it means more work, longer days, etc. It's sort of funny but it's actually the opposite of what most people probably think goes on. 

[CT Rain]

These are about as impressive as you'll see. Also... 60 knots at top of the mixed layer out of the NW as the storm passes.

GFS may be too well mixed (and NAM too inverted) - but throw in some convection this definitely is worth watching.

 

[bristolri_wx]

We are 67 pages in for a storm with not much (if any) snow for us but from a purely interesting weather perspective this has been an entertaining one to track and discuss. Maybe we get a Christmas miracle inch on the back side as that hell of a cold front comes through. Not often that Arctic air moves into our area from the southwest so there might still be some surprises at the end of this storm. High gusts still on the table in the coastal plain as well. Stay tuned!!

[moneypitmike]

I checked out for a couple of days.....can't believe this thread is still going.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/21/2022 at 12:19 AM, CT Rain said:

These are about as impressive as you'll see. Also... 60 knots at top of the mixed layer out of the NW as the storm passes.

GFS may be too well mixed (and NAM too inverted) - but throw in some convection this definitely is worth watching.

 

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We wild 

[Baroclinic Zone]

We enjoy, it’s the only weather we got.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/21/2022 at 12:19 AM, CT Rain said:

These are about as impressive as you'll see. Also... 60 knots at top of the mixed layer out of the NW as the storm passes.

GFS may be too well mixed (and NAM too inverted) - but throw in some convection this definitely is worth watching.

 

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Yeah we talked about this on text, but there is some crazy stuff going on with this thing. If we see the same sig tomorrow, it’s time to honk.

[NW_of_GYX]

  On 12/20/2022 at 9:41 PM, dryslot said:

Looking kind of wedged for some areas, Trend on guidance has been ticking this a little east with more CAD over NNE.

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NAM is the Christmas miracle. Weenie hopes and dreams dependent on persistence of the famous CAD. It’s breezy out there tonight and some friends who got power back yesterday just lost again. A rough 10 days in SW Maine when it’s all said and done. 

[NW_of_GYX]

Four inches of modeled Qpf plus winds plus saturated soil is bad bad news 

[ineedsnow]

18Z EURO looked kind of cold to start

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 12/21/2022 at 1:11 AM, ineedsnow said:

18Z EURO looked kind of cold to start

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Colder rain

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 12/21/2022 at 1:09 AM, NW_of_GYX said:

Four inches of modeled Qpf plus winds plus saturated soil is bad bad news 

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Four inches on which model 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/21/2022 at 12:48 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah we talked about this on text, but there is some crazy stuff going on with this thing. If we see the same sig tomorrow, it’s time to honk.

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Pour Nammy . Gonna break hearts up north 

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/21/2022 at 1:28 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Pour Nammy . Gonna break hearts up north 

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The fate of NNE is far from decided…it’s been trending colder and colder.  The next couple days will be telling with this for them…especially far NNE. 

[DavisStraight]

  On 12/21/2022 at 12:36 AM, moneypitmike said:

I checked out for a couple of days.....can't believe this thread is still going.

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Still a decent storm, not snow for us but some folks will cash in for Christmas.

[NW_of_GYX]

  On 12/21/2022 at 1:25 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Four inches on which model 

For mby verbatim 18z nam. This is likely overdone but there’s been a persistent signal for 3+” for my area. Not that anyone cares except for me and the guy who’s lawn sucks


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[CoastalWx]

  On 12/21/2022 at 1:28 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Pour Nammy . Gonna break hearts up north 

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I buy front end snow there.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/21/2022 at 1:41 AM, CoastalWx said:

I buy front end snow there.

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In far NNE sure. Not in Berks to Portsmouth 

[dryslot]

Right now, There isn't one model that doesn't show a thump for the elevations and northern parts of the state.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/21/2022 at 1:56 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

In far NNE sure. Not in Berks to Portsmouth 

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Who said Portsmouth? I could see snow in Berks.

[Torch Tiger]

  On 12/21/2022 at 1:57 AM, dryslot said:

Right now, There isn't one model that doesn't show a thump for the elevations and northern parts of the state.

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Let's lock this pattern in

[tunafish]

  On 12/21/2022 at 1:33 AM, NW_of_GYX said:

For mby verbatim 18z nam. This is likely overdone but there’s been a persistent signal for 3+” for my area. Not that anyone cares except for me and the guy who’s lawn sucks


.

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This coast-dwelling flatlander is on high alert, but for a different reason.

[CT Rain]

Woof.

 

[greenmtnwx]

NAM came in warmer at 0z so the cooling trend for NNE has stopped. 

[dmcginvt]

  On 12/21/2022 at 2:54 AM, greenmtnwx said:

NAM came in warmer at 0z so the cooling trend for NNE has stopped. 

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It apparently had some sense knocked into it, LES and ADK snow gone too

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/21/2022 at 2:44 AM, CT Rain said:

Woof.

 

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Gust to 60 here

[Skivt2]

We just got power back!

[powderfreak]

  On 12/21/2022 at 2:44 AM, CT Rain said:

Woof.

 

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That’s some wind.

[powderfreak]

That’s some serious QPF riding up the coastal plain on Reggie.