"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM starting the Berks into VT and NH (likely eventually ME) as snow.

Another run....another tick east and stronger CAD.

 

If this keeps up another 2 or 3 runs, they'll have a net gain up in NNE.

[dryslot]

Its really a shame we didn't have a HP anchored over QUE to pinch this warmth off as it progressed NE.

[dryslot]

 

[wxeyeNH]

My pack is down to 14".   Whatever is left will be a glacier cover.  Tough for deer and animals to dig through.

I had not been down my hill since our 19" the other day.   Much less snow down below.  In  Plymouth today there was even some grass showing.  Looks like some roaring south winds up here.

[dryslot]

Those surface temps and just off the deck are hanging very tough over NNH and WME on the Nam, That would certainly hold as a net gain in those areas verbatim this run.

[Modfan2]

Here’s a thought is this done ticking east? Not saying I am expecting frozen here but but IL and IN we’re expecting heavy snow that is now over PA/NY? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Nam doing silly nam things . Warning.. don’t buy in 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Here’s a thought is this done ticking east? Not saying I am expecting frozen here but but IL and IN we’re expecting heavy snow that is now over PA/NY? 

The thing is we could see models all jump a step back west over the next day.  Best to keep your expectations quite low.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Here’s a thought is this done ticking east? Not saying I am expecting frozen here but but IL and IN we’re expecting heavy snow that is now over PA/NY? 

All globals are hundreds of miles west . Nam is alone and very wrong. There’s no HP anywhere near us 

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The thing is we could see models all jump a step back west over the next day.  Best to keep your expectations quite low.

 

I have none, just expecting rain and breezy conditions 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All globals are hundreds of miles west . Nam is alone and very wrong. There’s no HP anywhere near us 

This is not correct....the same increased high pressure presence is showing up on all guidance and all guidance has been trending eastward with more CAD over the interior and esp NNE as we get closer.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is not correct....the same increased high pressure presence is showing up on all guidance and all guidance has been trending eastward with more CAD over the interior and esp NNE as we get closer.

The only model that had any snow in NW SNE was the Euro 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I have none, just expecting rain and breezy conditions 

Ryan has 50-65mph. If that is your idea of breezy .. well ok 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The only model that had any snow in NW SNE was the Euro 

RGEM and NAM have it too now. I don't expect this to be a snow producer for most of SNE....but it could be for NNE and the increased CAD puts the higher winds at risk for not materializing....esp over the interior and further north you go. South coast and southeast areas prob still get them. The question is how far into the interior can high winds get?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Remember the great event of 1976, which crippled Buffalo.  Only 4" fell, but the hurricane force gusts and plunging temps did the damage (drifting off Lake Erie helped too).  12"-18" will be insane in this case.  But south of the city looks to get more....a lot more.

It actually was in late January of 1977.  BUF snowfall was large but far less than recent LES episodes, but the wind gusted near hurricane force, and some semis were nearly covered in drifts.   Much less dramatic in Fort Kent but a memorable storm anyway, though it brought a comparatively modest 11", 10 of which came 1-9 AM.  At 9 PM on Jan 28 the temp was 12°.  By 6 AM it had popped up to 26 and 3 hours later it was 6°, both the mild and cold in SN+.  Wind gusts to 50 and visibility between 100' and 1/4 mile all of Jan 29.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All globals are hundreds of miles west . Nam is alone and very wrong. There’s no HP anywhere near us 

No wind damage sorry 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan has 50-65mph. If that is your idea of breezy .. well ok 

Euro is 45 to 50 max

[mahk_webstah]

Maybe the models were seeing something for us a few days ago that reflected the setup, but they were just a bit ahead of themselves and we get next week instead

[dryslot]

Looking kind of wedged for some areas, Trend on guidance has been ticking this a little east with more CAD over NNE.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro is 45 to 50 max

Who cares ? Pull up bufkit 

[UnitedWx]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan has 50-65mph. If that is your idea of breezy .. well ok 

Yeah, maybe at the shore and select mountain tops.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

Yeah, maybe at the shore and select mountain tops.

Every location in SNE. Watch pressure fall/ rise couplet pre and post front especially when all hell breaks loose 

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares ? Pull up bufkit 

Come on man. You should know yourself that this is not a sentence stone forecast. Right now. His thoughts are what he's putting up to. Just get us prepared. But to say this is written in stone. It's like saying we're getting a blizzard the day after. You should know better than anyone on here.

[UnitedWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Every location in SNE

I don't buy it for a second, it never happens. This is not meant as a dig against Ryan, but when you work for a media Outlet such as his a little bit of massaging and hyping seems to be a necessity these days

[dryslot]

Good prelim analysis from GYX on this event.

Friday Afternoon and Evening: Sharp cold front knocks on our
western door and crosses most of the forecast area by early
Friday evening. This period will be when the strongest winds
occur. Highest gusts continue to be expected on the coastal
plain of Maine, the Seacoast of NH, and the higher terrain where
gusts of around 60 MPH will be possible. The Midcoast may see a
few gusts around 70 MPH around 00z Sat. For the rest of the
area, we are generally expecting 35-50 MPH gusts, but they
could ratchet upward to around 60 MPH for an hour or two period
right ahead of the front and in any convection. There may be a
fineline with the front that could bring down damaging winds
also as the front crosses the region. Power outages are likely
unfortunately. No wind headlines yet as were are still pretty
far out there temporally. Even though confidence is growing in
wind impacts, southerly LLJ events can be tricky.

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I don't buy it for a second, it never happens. This is not meant as a dig against Ryan, but when you work for a media Outlet such as his a little bit of massaging and hyping seems to be a necessity these days

lol OK

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

lol OK

Sorry. It's just my personality. The older I get the more the media freaking annoys me. I do appreciate your forecasts and I used to be a weather Watcher for Brad back in the mid 80s. Hell, I still have a Paul Cousins wvit hurricane tracking chart!

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would watch for 50-65mph gusts.  But I would not expect everyone to get those.   
 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would watch for 50-65mph gusts.  But I would not expect everyone to get those.   
 

Outages preceding bare ground and Xmas cold would sort of be pure grinch 

does that warm your heart DIT

[Jebman]

20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sorry Jeb

Ginxy - I hope you all very soon get a whole lot of snow, good, deep pow with winds to blow it all around up there. Stay safe too. You live in snow country. You'll see big snows soon, it is inevitable.