"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Same here.  BOX hitting the wind aspect pretty hard.   I despise wind events...  ah well. 

As mentioned as this low pressure system goes under rapid
intensification to potentially a sub 970 mb low pressure system as
it lifts into Quebec. A powerful SSE low level jet at 850 mb is
depicted to be 4-5 standard deviations above normal along with
indications of it falling outside the model climatology on our
situational awareness table. The GFS/ECMWF are showing the potential
for the 850 mb jet to max out over 80-90 knots...which is quite
impressive for the global models. The big question is how much of
this wind will be able to be tapped given a south to southeast
direction; which is often the hardest to mix down. However...some of
it often does find its way down in these highly anomalous patterns
given rapid pressure changes and potential fine lines etc. We are
thinking that a period of 50 to 60 mph wind gusts appears reasonable
for much of the region. We could end up on the lower end of those
numbers if winds underperforms, but a low risk for wind gusts to
exceed 60-65 mph in a situation where more mixes down. All we can
say at this point is the potential exists for a period of damaging
wind gusts and power outages.

I’ll take the under at this point. If on Thursday night it’s still looking impressive…might take it a bit more seriously.  Winds almost always way under perform.  Maybe this will be the one of the few times it doesn’t? But as of now, I’m not buying in. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Winds will disappoint here, no doubt. But will gas up the generator just in case 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll take the under at this point. If on Thursday night it’s still looking impressive…might take it a bit more seriously.  Winds almost always way under perform.  Maybe this will be the one of the few times it doesn’t? But as of now, I’m not buying in. 

It is pretty location specific.  Some exposed areas do well.

  My backyard is typically on the lower end, if that.  Hope that streak continues.  My bathtub will be filled just in case (no power = no well = no toilet flushing)

[Baroclinic Zone]

Gonna need break out some classic shit for this storm.

 

[TalcottWx]

3 hours ago, Cuteirishgirl25 said:

Only Jesus knows exactly what is going to happen, I have seen so many forecasts blown one day before a predicted a big blizzard and they got nothing. One example was when they canceled all the classes in New York City because they were supposed to get 12 to 24 or 24 -36 inches of snow And the day of the storm was supposed to hit they didn’t get a flake.

Friend of cpickles? 

[Snowcrazed71]

I just have to vent lol. Freaking Seattle is under a winter storm warning tonight and tomorrow. SEATTLE!!!

It's like a big kick in the ass for us up here in the Northeast.

[eduggs]

It's going to be an interesting and historical moment on Friday when it's 20F and snowing in DCA while it's raining on the summits of Mt. Washington, Mansfield, and Marcy. I think it's happened before, but still rare.

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I just have to vent lol. Freaking Seattle is under a winter storm warning tonight and tomorrow. SEATTLE!!!

It's like a big kick in the ass for us up here in the Northeast.

A classic sign that we are not in a favorable pattern at this moment in time

[CoastalWx]

PAC NW was baking for years while we undressed. Just their turn now.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's going to be an interesting and historical moment on Friday when it's 20F and snowing in DCA while it's raining on the summits of Mt. Washington, Mansfield, and Marcy. I think it's happened before, but still rare.

I’ll sell backside snow there. Maybe a few flurries to end. 

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I just have to vent lol. Freaking Seattle is under a winter storm warning tonight and tomorrow. SEATTLE!!!

It's like a big kick in the ass for us up here in the Northeast.

4-8 expected wow 

[Ginx snewx]

This is totally insane. Never seen such a vast area of 850 winds.

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

A classic sign that we are not in a favorable pattern at this moment in time

The only thing that we could look at is a positive is that the pattern is likely to change. Once they go negative and we go positive for the PNA that's when we should see some action. 

[rimetree]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is totally insane. Never seen such a vast area of 850 winds.

Reminds me of this book that's been sitting on my shelf, unread, for several years. Got to pick it up some time just for giggles...

[eduggs]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll sell backside snow there. Maybe a few flurries to end. 

I'm with you. It's just funny to look at the raw hourly GFS output and see that unusual weather reversal.

[Ginx snewx]

@CoastalWx Fri mid morning 

2022/12/23

Fri

10:27 AM

11.64

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Reminds me of this book that's been sitting on my shelf, unread, for several years. Got to pick it up some time just for giggles...

Lol I read that

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

@CoastalWx Fri mid morning 

2022/12/23

Fri

10:27 AM

11.64

For east facing coastline, we are lucky winds more SE. Still gonna be an issue. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Reminds me of this book that's been sitting on my shelf, unread, for several years. Got to pick it up some time just for giggles...

That book was the base story for “the day after tomorrow”. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

I don’t care if it rains or freezes

’long as I got my plastic Jesus

riding on the dashboard of my car

 

 

 

 

I can go 100 mph long as I got that plastic power

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For east facing coastline, we are lucky winds more SE. Still gonna be an issue. 

3 to 4 feet surge South South East facing beaches ACK should get smoked 

[TalcottWx]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

PAC NW was baking for years while we undressed. Just their turn now.

Some articles out there tonight suggest it may never snow again, just go on social media. Not naming any names

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3 to 4 feet surge South South East facing beaches ACK should get smoked 

I’ll grab my boogie board 

[UnitedWx]

52 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

The only thing that we could look at is a positive is that the pattern is likely to change. Once they go negative and we go positive for the PNA that's when we should see some action. 

Absolutely.  I'm just curious to see what the guidance does after this next one ends up in Canada. Could the large storm reshuffle the deck?

[radiator]

So, what, if anything, does this portend for possible thunderstorm activity on Friday?
 

It seems that earlier it was hinted at as a strong possibility, but now, not so much.

 

[UnitedWx]

23 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Some articles out there tonight suggest it may never snow again, just go on social media. Not naming any names

Mmmmmm, well the word media in any context is tainted beyond belief these days (choice disparaging word omitted) so it could be anyone lol

[subdude]

Blowup lawn ornaments airborn on Friday. 

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is totally insane. Never seen such a vast area of 850 winds.

That's a big storm. Its gonna freeze up south central Texas something horrible, with that north flow on the backside. It is getting to the point, that we CAN'T grow citrus down here any more. This will be the THIRD year in a row that my citrus trees will DIE. Gonna lose all my herbs yet again. I get to start from scratch in 2023. Pipes will burst. There will be no water for days, and I'll be carrying water like an indentured servant in the original Colonies yet again. Not really sure what is going on with all these crazy Brobdingnagian storms. This is not anything like living in Washington, DC. Texas is NEVER ready for unusual winter weather, that is fast becoming expected every year and we STILL arent ready. Its politics as usual, with the small poor people like myself paying the price and suffering horribly. Every time it freezes down here, I have an extremely hard time. Just like back in Feb 2021.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, Jebman said:

That's a big storm. Its gonna freeze up south central Texas something horrible, with that north flow on the backside. It is getting to the point, that we CAN'T grow citrus down here any more. This will be the THIRD year in a row that my citrus trees will DIE. Gonna lose all my herbs yet again. I get to start from scratch in 2023. Pipes will burst. There will be no water for days, and I'll be carrying water like an indentured servant in the original Colonies yet again. Not really sure what is going on with all these crazy Brobdingnagian storms. This is not anything like living in Washington, DC. Texas is NEVER ready for unusual winter weather, that is fast becoming expected every year and we STILL arent ready. Its politics as usual, with the small poor people like myself paying the price and suffering horribly. Every time it freezes down here, I have an extremely hard time. Just like back in Feb 2021.

Sorry Jeb

[Whineminster]

14 minutes ago, Jebman said:

That's a big storm. Its gonna freeze up south central Texas something horrible, with that north flow on the backside. It is getting to the point, that we CAN'T grow citrus down here any more. This will be the THIRD year in a row that my citrus trees will DIE. Gonna lose all my herbs yet again. I get to start from scratch in 2023. Pipes will burst. There will be no water for days, and I'll be carrying water like an indentured servant in the original Colonies yet again. Not really sure what is going on with all these crazy Brobdingnagian storms. This is not anything like living in Washington, DC. Texas is NEVER ready for unusual winter weather, that is fast becoming expected every year and we STILL arent ready. Its politics as usual, with the small poor people like myself paying the price and suffering horribly. Every time it freezes down here, I have an extremely hard time. Just like back in Feb 2021.

Was down in Austin this time last year. I can see why.  The trees were having their way with the power lines - no trimming in years, poles shaved off from accidents so there's only half the thickness left, looked like Mexico's grid in the older neighborhoods.