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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd


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  On 12/18/2022 at 11:02 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Any chance that we could get a bit of a change over at the end of the storm on Friday night? I'm starting to feel a touch of optimism that we could maybe get that. Even a coding would be nice. It would stay on the ground for Christmas with the cold temperatures

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People wait 9 months out Of the year for snow , and our climo is such that we are begging for a torch Rainer to end as some flakes That leave a little snow dust  .
 

This is nothing to do with the poster and more just about me and why I need to chase snows or I would jump off a bridge accepting my climo as a snow lover Or I would need to delude myself consistently into thinking things will be Looking good around every corner .

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  On 12/18/2022 at 11:11 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

People wait 9 months out Of the year for snow , and our climo is such that we are begging for a torch Rainer to end as some flakes That peace a little snow dust  . This is nothing to do with the poster and more just about me and why I need to chase snows or I would jump off a bridge accepting my climo as a snow lover Or delude myself consistently into thinking things will be Looking good around every corner . 

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Your expectations are higher than reality. 

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  On 12/18/2022 at 11:13 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Your expectations are higher than reality. 

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It’s not expectations thou , it’s not worth my time if I can’t get any satisfaction for something I really look forward to , so in Order to enjoy the winter , I travel and have found if I experience 100” + between my home location and travels than its worth it to be a weenie . Now I don’t have wife and kids so I got more time on my hands and less real life worries which Trump weather . 

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  On 12/18/2022 at 11:16 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s not expectations thou , it’s not worth my time if I can’t get any satisfaction for something I really look forward to , so in Order to enjoy the winter , I travel and have found if I experience 100” + between my home location and travels than its worth it to be a weenie . Now I don’t have wife and kids so I got more time on my hands and less real life worries which Trump weather . 

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Part of the enjoyment is going through rough times makes the good times that much better.  I get it though you need a constant fix.

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  On 12/18/2022 at 11:18 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Part of the enjoyment is going through rough times makes the good times that much better.  I get it though you need a constant fix.

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Yes , otherwise i start shaking and that’s a bad look for me lol  . I’ve had years when I can’t Chase and the trade off was not favorable . It’s more enjoyable to simply enjoy more big snows . 

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  On 12/18/2022 at 11:10 PM, WarrenCtyWx said:

Could warmer winters from those days be used as analogs?

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The warmer winters from those years had really crappy patterns for the most part just like our warmest winters now have crappy patterns for the most part. Analogs are very useful.  Just don’t take the temps verbatim…which you shouldn’t do anyway in analog forecasting. 
 

The anti-analog crowd has never explained how they know what a good or crappy pattern looks like…and if they cannot explain that, then they have zero ability to give an informed opinion. 

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Oz NAM has a significantly different orientation to the SPV....now extending an arm well into Quebec.  I know it's the end range of a NAM run etc. etc., but I am getting a feeling the final chapter has not been written here.  Am I expecting an EC blizzard?  No, but I am sensing some weird twists and turns are coming.  Maybe ski country breaks even?

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  On 12/19/2022 at 2:57 AM, Go Kart Mozart said:

Oz NAM has a significantly different orientation to the SPV....now extending an arm well into Quebec.  I know it's the end range of a NAM run etc. etc., but I am getting a feeling the final chapter has not been written here.  Am I expecting an EC blizzard?  No, but I am sensing some weird twists and turns are coming.  Maybe ski country breaks even?

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The final chapter ends with all of us getting a knife driven into our back, and Mother Nature twisting.

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  On 12/18/2022 at 10:19 PM, weathafella said:

In March?  That’s insane.  Some of the best snow months in my memory were March.

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March 2018 was amazing. It can snow in December, but climo is really unfavorable for anything big. March is more prone to massive blizzards. People can say im exaggerating, but that’s what March 13th 2018 was. I got so much snow it caused a gigantic tree in my backyard to collapse under the weight of the snow. It was also extremely windy, that was no ordinary nor’easter, that was 12+ hours of blizzard conditions.

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  On 12/19/2022 at 2:57 AM, Go Kart Mozart said:

Oz NAM has a significantly different orientation to the SPV....now extending an arm well into Quebec.  I know it's the end range of a NAM run etc. etc., but I am getting a feeling the final chapter has not been written here.  Am I expecting an EC blizzard?  No, but I am sensing some weird twists and turns are coming.  Maybe ski country breaks even?

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It's over

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  On 12/19/2022 at 4:11 AM, MJO812 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21 (1).png

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Look at the temps at the same frame.  10 degrees in Nashville while it's 60 in Providence. Still not to far away from a solution where we might get an inch or two as the front comes through.  Just need that squall line to hold up.  Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look COLD.

gfs_T2m_neus_22.png

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  On 12/19/2022 at 10:48 AM, moneypitmike said:

At least we won't have frozen ground so the torrents an soak in.

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I still have 60npercent cover, but it surely won't make it til Thursday. And the ground sure isn't frozen. We must have a different plow operator this year, he gave our lawn quite a scalping

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  On 12/19/2022 at 3:28 AM, George001 said:

March 2018 was amazing. It can snow in December, but climo is really unfavorable for anything big. March is more prone to massive blizzards. People can say im exaggerating, but that’s what March 13th 2018 was. I got so much snow it caused a gigantic tree in my backyard to collapse under the weight of the snow. It was also extremely windy, that was no ordinary nor’easter, that was 12+ hours of blizzard conditions.

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Cheer up, chaim bloom signed the 38 year old justin turner to a 2 year contract...

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