"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Those geese never stopped grazing in Portsmouth. 

But models!
 

 

Good work with the pattern when everyone doubted you. 

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS is a pretty epic solution for the Great Lakes.  A truly severe Blizzard that stalls.

15-30" over a 300-600 mile wide area -  with 60-70 mph gusts - Wind chills 20 to 40 below zero the last half of the blizzard.. 

A truly life threatening dangerous Blizzard.

At least we get our damage on 60-75mph SE winds 

[jbenedet]

Sparrows hoppin’ about like it’s early November. 
 

I believe if snow is your hope, you look to the Berks and greens on the backside of this monster. But that also means the rest of us “easterners” are gonna have a prolonged torch on the front side. 
 

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

I believe Tip and I are the only New England board members who experienced the Cleveland Super Bomb.  If it weren't the Xmas holiday, I would really consider a trip to "my old school" (my apologies to Steely Dan).  This shoulda been our storm!

[jbenedet]

Too much of a good thing: the arctic oscillation.

With it so deeply negative any shortwave out west is “amp” happy. Deep cold is immediately tappable and synoptic wave development accelerates. Available cold is dumped west. We get the stale cold. Rinse repeat.

Also explains why the best event for SNE ytd (sans the Berks) was that late blooming “crap” wave that  barely registered 1000mb SE of the BM.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is actually a decent front ender…esp for CNE/NNE

[moneypitmike]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is a curious statement that I'm often encountering in the denier narrative(s).   Because it is true, yet ... at the same time, it says nothing about whether the climate is changing because of the actions of humanity, now.  Using its truth to imply humans don't cause CC now, is a falsity.  

The comprehension of what I wrote:  clearly discusses how the climate change is oversold - but it muses further that it has to be, because of human limitation of perceived causality when in the absence of a direct experience.  

It says nothing in support or against whether human's are a factor in climate change.

Which they are

There is, however, in attempting to attribute CC ...that's being done too liberally.  Humanity is causing a lot of CC, because of the 500 years of recent advancing combustion power generation ...etc..etc... But the amount that has changed doesn't cancel the usefulness of analogs.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Almost all drinks are spiked w kool aid these days.  Just pick wether your flavor is approved .

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

And using analogs from colder times-say pre 1990-are largely worthless these days...

How difficult is it to realize that an analog from the 1960's will not yield as cold of a result at the surface? Its not rocket science and it's pretty easy to account for.

I use them liberally and have had 2 awful seasonal calls in 8 years. That is at least as good?as any other method.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We’re gonna need a bigger toastah 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We’re gonna need a bigger toastah 

It's so frustrating how brutal December has been. Kev is right that snowfall is more enjoyable this month for a variety of reasons, but unfortunately it's just not a snowy month where we live. March is better.

[NorEastermass128]

Smells of spring here this morning. Sun felt warm. Birds chirping. Felt like mid March. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Smells of spring here this morning. Sun felt warm. Birds chirping. Felt like mid March. 

Tip’s waiting to post some exotic statements about warm tushies.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Well Messi is even more of a legend now 

[Snowcrazed71]

Someone just mentioned that Larry Cosgrove said the storm was going to reform in North Carolina. I asked to see or for them to post an article with that, but nothing was given. They said they did see it. I just think it's pulling its straws at this point

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

He’s trying too hard even for his low-bar standards.
 

Unless he’s just exponentially more ignorant than I gave him credit for back when he was nor’easter27. 

Bring back my old name  love you too Will

[TalcottWx]

54 pages and the system doesn't take shape until Wednesday. Yall crazy. 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Someone just mentioned that Larry Cosgrove said the storm was going to reform in North Carolina. I asked to see or for them to post an article with that, but nothing was given. They said they did see it. I just think it's pulling its straws at this point

yep grasping at straws....we're torched with the strong primary going to the lakes regardless

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Someone just mentioned that Larry Cosgrove said the storm was going to reform in North Carolina. I asked to see or for them to post an article with that, but nothing was given. They said they did see it. I just think it's pulling its straws at this point

No. Delmarva and up along I95

[weathafella]

Unpinned mercifully.  Move your interest to other areas.  Perhaps there will be a quick hitting inch or 2 in a lot of places getting pure rain after fropa in time for a white Christmas.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Those geese never stopped grazing in Portsmouth. 

But models!
 

 

Lol geese year round since I was a kid 60 years ago. So so foolish. 

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's so frustrating how brutal December has been. Kev is right that snowfall is more enjoyable this month for a variety of reasons, but unfortunately it's just not a snowy month where we live. March is better.

Well actually Dec and March are very close in snow amounts. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I believe Tip and I are the only New England board members who experienced the Cleveland Super Bomb.  If it weren't the Xmas holiday, I would really consider a trip to "my old school" (my apologies to Steely Dan).  This shoulda been our storm!

Was thinking about that, of course 2 weeks later...

[moneypitmike]

17 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

54 pages and the system doesn't take shape until Wednesday. Yall crazy. 

Thanks. 

I vote for moderators deleting any storm threads that are more than 3 days out--let alone 8 (!!!).  That's what the discussion thread is for.  Otherwise the two threads become conflated.

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Those geese never stopped grazing in Portsmouth. 

But models!
 

 

Looks like they will end up back in canada on those southerly winds Friday night.

[weathafella]

Damn....we have lodging and lots of family in Chicago.  If I didn't have covid I'd be on my way.

[bristolri_wx]

46 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Thanks. 

I vote for moderators deleting any storm threads that are more than 3 days out--let alone 8 (!!!).  That's what the discussion thread is for.  Otherwise the two threads become conflated.

I dunno, not sure what the problem is. We are still going to be getting impactful weather from a powerful storm during the timeframe mentioned. Just not a big snow storm for most. This thread served a purpose, discussion of one developing storm.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Your Welcome

 

 

[moneypitmike]

31 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I dunno, not sure what the problem is. We are still going to be getting impactful weather from a powerful storm during the timeframe mentioned. Just not a big snow storm for most. This thread served a purpose, discussion of one developing storm.

It's not an issue of type of storm--at that time range it's all part of the general discussion.  

 

Anyway, I won't belabor the point any more--I know many feel the same.

[moneypitmike]

33 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Your Welcome

 

 

 

Unfortunately, you also need to have cold.