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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

Just for fun…  

WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

Gather 'round weenies. I don't do this often, but it’s story time with Cousin Donnie.  I knew Winter way back when I was a kid. Winter was kind. Winter always seemed to go above and beyond. Winte

Kitz Craver
Kitz Craver

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 4:36 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS is a pretty epic solution for the Great Lakes.  A truly severe Blizzard that stalls.

15-30" over a 300-600 mile wide area -  with 60-70 mph gusts - Wind chills 20 to 40 below zero the last half of the blizzard.. 

A truly life threatening dangerous Blizzard.

image.thumb.png.0ab2d837f6bd323e51f64aa31f02e27b.png

image.thumb.png.21c35bdd2b8031610feb15c5ff2de61d.png

image.thumb.png.792cf4b98cd670464afee5889d22a50f.png

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At least we get our damage on 60-75mph SE winds 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

Too much of a good thing: the arctic oscillation.

With it so deeply negative any shortwave out west is “amp” happy. Deep cold is immediately tappable and synoptic wave development accelerates. Available cold is dumped west. We get the stale cold. Rinse repeat.

Also explains why the best event for SNE ytd (sans the Berks) was that late blooming “crap” wave that  barely registered 1000mb SE of the BM.

 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 4:35 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is a curious statement that I'm often encountering in the denier narrative(s).   Because it is true, yet ... at the same time, it says nothing about whether the climate is changing because of the actions of humanity, now.  Using its truth to imply humans don't cause CC now, is a falsity.  

The comprehension of what I wrote:  clearly discusses how the climate change is oversold - but it muses further that it has to be, because of human limitation of perceived causality when in the absence of a direct experience.  

It says nothing in support or against whether human's are a factor in climate change.

Which they are

There is, however, in attempting to attribute CC ...that's being done too liberally.  Humanity is causing a lot of CC, because of the 500 years of recent advancing combustion power generation ...etc..etc... But the amount that has changed doesn't cancel the usefulness of analogs.  

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Kool-Aid Orange Liquid Drink Mix, Caffeine Free, 1.62 fl oz Bottle ...

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 2:41 PM, Brian5671 said:

And using analogs from colder times-say pre 1990-are largely worthless these days...

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How difficult is it to realize that an analog from the 1960's will not yield as cold of a result at the surface? Its not rocket science and it's pretty easy to account for.

I use them liberally and have had 2 awful seasonal calls in 8 years. That is at least as good?as any other method.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 5:44 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We’re gonna need a bigger toastah 

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It's so frustrating how brutal December has been. Kev is right that snowfall is more enjoyable this month for a variety of reasons, but unfortunately it's just not a snowy month where we live. March is better.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 6:05 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Someone just mentioned that Larry Cosgrove said the storm was going to reform in North Carolina. I asked to see or for them to post an article with that, but nothing was given. They said they did see it. I just think it's pulling its straws at this point

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yep grasping at straws....we're torched with the strong primary going to the lakes regardless

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 6:05 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Someone just mentioned that Larry Cosgrove said the storm was going to reform in North Carolina. I asked to see or for them to post an article with that, but nothing was given. They said they did see it. I just think it's pulling its straws at this point

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No. Delmarva and up along I95

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 5:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's so frustrating how brutal December has been. Kev is right that snowfall is more enjoyable this month for a variety of reasons, but unfortunately it's just not a snowy month where we live. March is better.

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Well actually Dec and March are very close in snow amounts. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 5:07 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

I believe Tip and I are the only New England board members who experienced the Cleveland Super Bomb.  If it weren't the Xmas holiday, I would really consider a trip to "my old school" (my apologies to Steely Dan).  This shoulda been our storm!

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Was thinking about that, of course 2 weeks later...

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 6:10 PM, TalcottWx said:

54 pages and the system doesn't take shape until Wednesday. Yall crazy. 

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Thanks. 

I vote for moderators deleting any storm threads that are more than 3 days out--let alone 8 (!!!).  That's what the discussion thread is for.  Otherwise the two threads become conflated.

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 6:30 PM, moneypitmike said:

Thanks. 

I vote for moderators deleting any storm threads that are more than 3 days out--let alone 8 (!!!).  That's what the discussion thread is for.  Otherwise the two threads become conflated.

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I dunno, not sure what the problem is. We are still going to be getting impactful weather from a powerful storm during the timeframe mentioned. Just not a big snow storm for most. This thread served a purpose, discussion of one developing storm.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 7:18 PM, bristolri_wx said:

I dunno, not sure what the problem is. We are still going to be getting impactful weather from a powerful storm during the timeframe mentioned. Just not a big snow storm for most. This thread served a purpose, discussion of one developing storm.

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It's not an issue of type of storm--at that time range it's all part of the general discussion.  

 

Anyway, I won't belabor the point any more--I know many feel the same.

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