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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

Just for fun…  

WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

Gather 'round weenies. I don't do this often, but it’s story time with Cousin Donnie.  I knew Winter way back when I was a kid. Winter was kind. Winter always seemed to go above and beyond. Winte

Kitz Craver
Kitz Craver

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted 
Strong low-pressure with potentially high winds & heavy precip
  late Thu & Fri,
Regarding wind
potential...both ensembles and deterministic guidance have a strong
wind signal, with low level (925 mb) southerly jet 65-75 kt late Thu
ngt into Fri. Both ensembles have high probs of 2m temps 50+F.
Deterministic has 2m temps in the mid 50s, thus enhancing wind
threat.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 12:23 PM, Ginx snewx said:

This explains a lot.

 

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Weve talked a lot about the younger generation being spoiled utterly rotten with snow. I don’t think anyone gets overly swayed by the argument though because it’s hard to force someone to understand experiences  they weren’t a part of in-person. 
 

But if we keep up the general crappy flavor of winters that has plagued us the last few seasons for another 5-10 years then maybe they will understand a little more. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Fwiw, the 06z euro looks like it would go east a bit from 00z. It’s pressing the PV a bit further east and the trough axis a bit east as well. 
 

I still think we would need another solid tick in that direction today to make this more interesting. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 12:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Fwiw, the 06z euro looks like it would go east a bit from 00z. It’s pressing the PV a bit further east and the trough axis a bit east as well. 
 

I still think we would need another solid tick in that direction today to make this more interesting. 

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Things have trended positive for NNE and ski areas. Both GFS and EURO are now SWFE up there. Thump snow to drizzle warm sector to flash freeze.

download (6).png

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 12:34 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Weve talked a lot about the younger generation being spoiled utterly rotten with snow. I don’t think anyone gets overly swayed by the argument though because it’s hard to force someone to understand experiences  they weren’t a part of in-person. 
 

But if we keep up the general crappy flavor of winters that has plagued us the last few seasons for another 5-10 years then maybe they will understand a little more. 

Expand  

Exactly.  Me,  having the blizzard of '78 as the experience that started my interest in weather... and then living through the next decade really does color my opinion.  Certainly more so than someone who's say 30 years old 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 12:44 PM, UnitedWx said:

Exactly.  Me,  having the blizzard of '78 as the experience that started my interest in weather... and then living through the next decade really does color my opinion.  Certainly more so than someone who's say 30 years old 

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Another thing to consider is that back then there were far more snowfall totals reported after the snow has ended.  Now it is more of a running total during a storm with updates every 2-3 hours.  That leads to more accurate snow totals than back then.

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 12:50 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

Another thing to consider is that back then there were far more snowfall totals reported after the snow has ended.  Now it is more of a running total during a storm with updates every 2-3 hours.  That leads to more accurate snow totals than back then.

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True but I don't think it really makes a huge difference in seasonal totals most years. Although I have always believed that the old method was more indicative of what we really see on the ground. I think this method of measuring on a snowboard every few hours is kind of fake if you ask me.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 1:14 PM, UnitedWx said:

True but I don't think it really makes a huge difference in seasonal totals most years. Although I have always believed that the old method was more indicative of what we really see on the ground. I think this method of measuring on a snowboard every few hours is kind of fake if you ask me.

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It doesn’t make a big difference. It maybe makes a difference on the seasonal total of a couple inches here and there. The reason is because it really only matters a lot in the big double digit storms which don’t happen that frequently. Compaction rate is sort of an exponential function. So some of those big dog totals may have been higher if measured every 6 hours. 
 

However, most first order sites were already doing 6 hourly measurements even in the 1960s/1970s. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The 6 hr method around here doesn’t make a huge difference. A lot of the storms involve wind and helps to compact. I haven’t noticed a huge difference doing both methods. 

I could see differences appear in the softly fallen fluff though. Like when Jspin measures a dendrite and calls it 0.4”  But, I also think it makes for more true measuring because when it’s snowing an inch an hour all day and you have 6” to snow for it, that’s not really truthful either. That’s when the 6hr method comes in handy and more truthful imo.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 1:31 PM, CoastalWx said:

The 6 hr method around here doesn’t make a huge difference. A lot of the storms involve wind and helps to compact. I haven’t noticed a huge difference doing both methods. 

I could see differences appear in the softly fallen fluff though. Like when Jspin measures a dendrite and calls it 0.4”  But, I also think it makes for more true measuring because when it’s snowing an inch an hour all day and you have 6” to snow for it, that’s not really truthful either. That’s when the 6hr method comes in handy and more truthful imo.

Expand  

Biggest issue is when stations measure only at 12z and you had a snow to rain situation the day prior. 

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