"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:20 AM, MJO812 said:

Next week

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I'm sorry. I don't want to be " one of those guys ". But... Are you not ready to let this go yet? Let me know if you need to talk..... I'm a good listener.. hehe

[SnoSki14]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:21 AM, MJO812 said:

Big changes 

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I'll give it til Monday. 

[Thunderblizzard]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:20 AM, Thunderblizzard said:

That was a rather large shift on the CMC... much more confluence up top. A lot snowier in NNE.

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Handling of the TPV was much more favorable than 12z... need to see that show up in other models.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Canadian says I’m heading back to Pinkham notch Friday for a 20 spot. Just wanna see that lead wave run into a high and not wipe out ski country . I gave up on areas not up and in 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:30 AM, Thunderblizzard said:

Handling of the TPV was much more favorable than 12z... need to see that show up in other models.

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The ridge or western North America is also bulging east more aggressively on some of these guidances. That’s probably more important in where this thing ultimately locates in the west east aspect. 

but the sp Vortx stuff going on north is very important for how our boundary layer conditions will be as well and if it gets strong enough it will ultimately stop this thing from going up in Ontario altogether and we end up with a whole different scenario anyway

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:20 AM, MJO812 said:

Next week

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I was just messing. I still see at least SWFE potential 

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS has the 26 to 29th system back again as a really aggressive northern string digger… Better fire up a thread 

LOL

[MJOatleast7]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:32 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

The ridge or western North America is also bulging east more aggressively on some of these guidances. That’s probably more important in where this thing ultimately locates in the west east aspect. 
but the sp Vortx stuff going on north is very important for how our boundary layer conditions will be as well and if it gets strong enough it will ultimately stop this thing from going up in Ontario altogether and we end up with a whole different scenario anyway

Yeah’ hopefully it’s enough to prevent a 955 low from curling up onto Hudson’d Bay and spinning there for 3 days…mixing out/eating up all the cold reservoir up there…setting up our post-12/28 thaw…


.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:36 AM, MJOatleast7 said:

Yeah’ hopefully it’s enough to prevent a 955 low from curling up onto Hudson’d Bay and spinning there for 3 days…mixing out/eating up all the cold reservoir up there…setting up our post-12/28 thaw…


.

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I’m not sure I buy that thaw just yet.  Hmm. 

[Cuteirishgirl25]

 

[Thunderblizzard]

UKMET looks significantly east of 12z. Over eastern upstate NY at 144 as opposed to MI.

[MJO812]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:42 AM, Thunderblizzard said:

UKMET looks significantly east of 12z. Over eastern upstate NY at 144 as opposed to MI.

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Congrats buffalo

[cleetussnow]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:35 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS has the 26 to 29th system back again as a really aggressive northern string digger… Better fire up a thread 

LOL

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So help me….

[STILL N OF PIKE]

If UKIE had the high better oriented like CMC it maybe more interesting . 

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:42 AM, Thunderblizzard said:

UKMET looks significantly east of 12z. Over eastern upstate NY at 144 as opposed to MI.

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[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:36 AM, MJOatleast7 said:

Yeah’ hopefully it’s enough to prevent a 955 low from curling up onto Hudson’d Bay and spinning there for 3 days…mixing out/eating up all the cold reservoir up there…setting up our post-12/28 thaw…


.

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Who said post 12/28 thaw?

[RDRY]

All those monster highs pressing down, I don't buy the tracks of the two lows. I also don't buy that there will be two lows.

But I know zilch. So there's that to consider.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:51 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who said post 12/28 thaw?

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They probably looking at gfs post 12/28 torches today not sure about EPS

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:52 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

They probably looking at gfs post 12/28 torches today not sure about EPS

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I would be pretty suprised if the first week of January is warm, regardless of what guidance is currently doing. 

[Typhoon Tip]

These run peregrinations indicate the situation is still pretty fluid -  and I don’t mean that as an unfortunate pun.  Heh.

I mean in 120 hrs The mid-level is down near Kentucky …that’s still a  ways enough off. And we’ve been having problems with the Pacific relay into North America all season long with timing and structure of short waves …it’s been a spacial-temporal nightmare for determinism so its a red flag imho to put a stop on presumption

[MJO812]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:49 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If UKIE had the high better oriented like CMC it maybe more interesting . 

 

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H5 is drastically different on the ukie

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/18/2022 at 5:09 AM, MJO812 said:

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Drastically different ass.

[MJO812]

  On 12/18/2022 at 5:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Drastically different ass.

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Congrats buffalo on all the models tonight 

[George001]

  On 12/18/2022 at 5:09 AM, MJO812 said:

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Ukie showing a foot+ well east of the low? Either it’s on to something unprecedented happening, or Uncle has been drinking again. That foot+ in south Jersey has me convinced Uncle is back on the hard liquor! 

[Snowcrazed71]

Anything with the Euro?

[weathafella]

  On 12/18/2022 at 6:35 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Anything with the Euro?

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 Not a relevant change.  It seems like next week may be better but we've heard and said that before.

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 12/18/2022 at 6:38 AM, weathafella said:

 Not a relevant change.  It seems like next week may be better but we've heard and said that before.

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You mean the week after this storm next Thursday/ Friday, right? 

One of these model runs are bound to stick ( just like all the Snow we are getting ) lol

[Chris12WX]

  On 12/18/2022 at 4:42 AM, Thunderblizzard said:

UKMET looks significantly east of 12z. Over eastern upstate NY at 144 as opposed to MI.

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Damaging winds back on!

[The 4 Seasons]

Merry Christmas ya'll

Trends remain that the low will be an inside runner with the
predominantly rain across the region, with a mix or areas of light
snow inland at the onset, quickly going over to all rain. A deep
moisture feed from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will precede the
low with the potential for a moderate rainfall. With increased
confidence in a precipitation event probabilities have been
increased to likely and categorical Thursday night into Friday
across the area. Followed the NBM guidance.

[Torch Tiger]

  On 12/18/2022 at 11:18 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

Merry Christmas ya'll

Trends remain that the low will be an inside runner with the
predominantly rain across the region, with a mix or areas of light
snow inland at the onset, quickly going over to all rain. A deep
moisture feed from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will precede the
low with the potential for a moderate rainfall. With increased
confidence in a precipitation event probabilities have been
increased to likely and categorical Thursday night into Friday
across the area. Followed the NBM guidance.

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awt