"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Of course it's real...has been for millions of years 

Should have said “anthropogenic” climate change. 

But that’s not my point, and I didn’t come here for the politics ok? 

[weathafella]

And here I am watching the day after tomorrow on syfy.

[JC-CT]

If it finished as snow I think most people would appreciate it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

While climate change is real, I don’t think it is to blame for this debacle. 

We never really locked in a +pna in this pattern despite the strong -nao. It looked good on the model runs, but it hasn’t played out as predicted. 

Yes, I'm not disputing  anthropogenic climate change.  The damn ridge was too far west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And here I am watching the day after tomorrow on syfy.

Twilight zone NY marathon on Syfy every year for me

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Twilight zone NY marathon on Syfy every year for me

Me too!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Enjoy the Bills Phins game. It’s the closest we’ll get to experience warning snows for the rest of the year.

Even that’s a bust ha.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

28 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

If it finished as snow I think most people would appreciate it.

We would. We should at least…

[Cold Miser]

John needs to change the title of this thread.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, rimetree said:

Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Is a singal a meteorological term for massive torching cutter? Nailed it.   Oh well, two week vacation has commenced...time to douse the disappointment in some beer.

Yeah, it does 

The discussion point is/was the signal? 

How a direct threat emerges within that signal was never guarantee?

I mean I’m not insensitive to it… People obviously are going to be inclined. However,  I also pointed out that I was above confidence for an impact in our area; I never explicitly said it would be a blizzard or the snow storm or anything like that.  meteorologically, … seeing as this is a Weather board, the thread is on point but obviously we collectively want a result different than Detroit Michigan lol 

I cautioned folks that it’s still 132 hours before this thing is committed to a Great Lakes cut. It’s 5 1/2 days from now …there’s time for this to wiggle back east and in fact the 18 Z went east about 500 miles from what I’m seeing. The other thing I also noticed is that there’s a 1042 mbar high park just north of Maine and these models all have pressure in that area above 1036 anyway. Yet they’re just taking the storm straight through it without any hesitation in the body layer and I find that hard to believe so this is going to be correctable at the mesoscale as well as we get closer. Assuming it is a big dramatic storm (which I’m not even sure it doesn’t start to normalize and become more moderate in scope anyway as we get closer but that’s weak speculation ) 

I don’t post threads to placate people’s d-drip. At least that’s the furthest thing from my mind. When I see a signal that large that powerful I’m going to want to discuss it anybody would. The fact of the matter is a Great Lakes cutter, or an East Coast event, would fit in the signal people just need to deal with that

[George001]

 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, it does 

The discussion point is/was the signal? 

How a direct threat emerges within that signal was never guarantee?

I mean I’m not insensitive to it… People obviously are going to be inclined. However,  I also pointed out that I was above confidence for an impact in our area; I never explicitly said it would be a blizzard or the snow storm or anything like that.  meteorologically, … seeing as this is a Weather board, the thread is on point but obviously we collectively want a result different than Detroit Michigan lol 

I cautioned folks that it’s still 132 hours before this thing is committed to a great lake Scott that is you know 5 1/2 days from now there’s time for this to wiggle back east and in fact the 18 Z went east about 500 miles from what I’m seeing. The other thing I also noticed is that there’s a 1042 mbar high park just north of Maine and these models all have pressure in that area above 1036 anyway. Yet they’re just taking the storm straight through it without any hesitation in the body layer and I find that hard to believe so this is going to be correctable at the mesoscale as well as we get closer. Assuming it is a big dramatic storm (which I’m not even sure it doesn’t start to normalize and become more moderate in scope anyway as we get closer but that’s weak speculation ) 

I don’t post threads to placate people’s the d-drip. At least that’s the furthest thing from my mind. When I see a signal that large that powerful I’m going to want to discuss it anybody would. The fact of the matter is a Great Lakes cutter, or an East Coast event, would fit in the signal people just need to deal with that

Yeah just because we’re on the warm side of the storm doesn’t mean the storm isn’t impressive. It has the potential to develop into a historic blizzard, just not for us. It’s still going to be one hell of a storm for us with huge winds, coastal flooding, and heavy rain. That’s something that is worth tracking. It’s a weather board after all not just a snow board. We track rainstorms too on this forum, hell some of us even enjoy tracking rainstorms. Torch Tiger and Snowman19 for example probably threw a damn party when they saw the Euro cut the low into Michigan last night. They like warmer weather and massive rainstorms. They get a lot of shit for it, but all they are doing is celebrating the weather they enjoy. That’s no different than what snow weenies like myself do. I’m happy for them, we will get our blizzards later in the winter most likely, they will get their cutter for Christmas week. That’s why I love New England weather, there is something for everyone. If it just snowed all year long we wouldn’t have cool shit like bass fishing, golfing, etc.

[George001]

22 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

John needs to change the title of this thread.  

Yeah it should be we need a bigger boat not a bigger plow haha

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah it should be we need a bigger boat not a bigger plow haha

It was originally ‘boat’ But people didn’t like it …so I changed it to the other one out of diplomacy and mild social stigma lol

[Whineminster]

So 0 chance of snow?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

So 0 chance of snow?

Nah. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, it does 

The discussion point is/was the signal? 

How a direct threat emerges within that signal was never guarantee?

I mean I’m not insensitive to it… People obviously are going to be inclined. However,  I also pointed out that I was above confidence for an impact in our area; I never explicitly said it would be a blizzard or the snow storm or anything like that.  meteorologically, … seeing as this is a Weather board, the thread is on point but obviously we collectively want a result different than Detroit Michigan lol 

I cautioned folks that it’s still 132 hours before this thing is committed to a Great Lakes cut. It’s 5 1/2 days from now …there’s time for this to wiggle back east and in fact the 18 Z went east about 500 miles from what I’m seeing. The other thing I also noticed is that there’s a 1042 mbar high park just north of Maine and these models all have pressure in that area above 1036 anyway. Yet they’re just taking the storm straight through it without any hesitation in the body layer and I find that hard to believe so this is going to be correctable at the mesoscale as well as we get closer. Assuming it is a big dramatic storm (which I’m not even sure it doesn’t start to normalize and become more moderate in scope anyway as we get closer but that’s weak speculation ) 

I don’t post threads to placate people’s d-drip. At least that’s the furthest thing from my mind. When I see a signal that large that powerful I’m going to want to discuss it anybody would. The fact of the matter is a Great Lakes cutter, or an East Coast event, would fit in the signal people just need to deal with that

Yes, there are a lot of posters on this board who don't seem to have an interest in meteorology....they just want to know about snow in their back yard.  I might suggest they buy a snow making nozzle for their garden hose.  I find it fascinating that we have goal posts from Scranton to Des Moines.  We might get to 60f with hurricane force gusts....the Midwest might have a super-bomb, who knows.   Would I like to have a 2' blizzard?  Sure, but regardless, it's fun trying to solve the riddle.  

[TalcottWx]

Checking in. Heard I'm gonna see a foot plus 

[Whineminster]

Do they sell plows for rain?

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

Euro has one hell of a storm, a 979mb low in Michigan. It looks like the models are starting to come to a consensus, the low isn’t quite going to get to Minnesota, but it’s not going to go over SNE like the gfs was saying either. It sucks that this won’t be snow for us, I jumped the gun for sure when I looked at negative NAO analogs in the past and assumed it would translate to multiple blizzards. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. The temperature of the earth has increased, patterns that used to do one thing in the past may not do the same now.  Is winter over? Hell no it isn’t, but this epic pattern that was hyped up didn’t really pan out. Oh well, I’m going to continue to track this storm. Yeah it’s going to rain, but still it’s one hell of a storm and will be exciting to track. Although most of us like snow here, there’s nothing wrong with getting excited about rainstorms too if they are a powerhouse like this one.

We should see a few inches of rain, epstein will be thrilled. #drought 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

Checking in. Heard I'm gonna see a foot plus 

Maybe at electric blue 

[MJO812]

Gfs looks interesting 

[WeatherWilly]

It takes a lot to kill a potential white xmas storm thread, but 60 degrees and rain did the job. 

[Snowcrazed71]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs looks interesting 

For when.... Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

For when.... Lol

Next winter

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM trying to go SWFE too. 

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Next winter

Next week

[Thunderblizzard]

That was a rather large shift on the CMC... much more confluence up top. A lot snowier in NNE.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM trying to go SWFE too. 

I know only about 20% care but gfs is prolly a net gain for NNE 

[MJO812]

Just now, Thunderblizzard said:

That was a rather large shift on the CMC... much more confluence up top. A lot snowier in NNE.

Big changes 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM trying to go SWFE too. 

The GFS can’t really adjust any more east with the deep layer or that low is going to start committing more to a coastal scenario. 

It’s already kind of trying.

 I’m also pretty certain that the boundary layer is being eroded too quickly New England with a high-pressure up there