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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb
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Just for fun…  

WxWatcher007
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George001

George001

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Euro has one hell of a storm, a 979mb low in Michigan. It looks like the models are starting to come to a consensus, the low isn’t quite going to get to Minnesota, but it’s not going to go over SNE like the gfs was saying either. It sucks that this won’t be snow for us, I jumped the gun for sure when I looked at negative NAO analogs in the past and assumed it would translate to multiple blizzards. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. The temperature of the earth has increased, patterns that used to do one thing in the past may not do the same now.  Is winter over? Hell no it isn’t, but this epic pattern that was hyped up didn’t really pan out. Oh well, I’m going to continue to track this storm. Yeah it’s going to rain, but still it’s one hell of a storm and will be exciting to track. Although most of us like snow here, there’s nothing wrong with getting excited about rainstorms too if they are a powerhouse like this one.image.thumb.png.b38b77248fa741b0ec3946bcf9a1eb1b.png

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George001

George001

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  On 12/18/2022 at 12:22 AM, Brian5671 said:

the warning signs were there from the get go....when things get continually delayed it's a big red flag it's not coming....

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The pattern did come (-nao, -epo, +pna), but the analogs didn’t work because the earth is warmer than it used to be. Yes I’m blaming climate change for this, I know I’ll get a lot of shit for it but this type of pattern used to be good until the damn ocean furnaced. Hell, the Atlantic is so warm I’m considering going to the cape and trolling for stripers right now in mid December. I bet I’d catch a massive bass. Oh well, on to January. After this cutter it looks like we will get a thaw for a bit on the long range models. I say bring it on, we need a pattern reset and reload. 

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wokeupthisam

wokeupthisam

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  On 12/18/2022 at 12:42 AM, George001 said:

 

The pattern did come (-nao, -epo, +pna), but the analogs didn’t work because the earth is warmer than it used to be. Yes I’m blaming climate change for this, I know I’ll get a lot of shit for it but this type of pattern used to be good until the damn ocean furnaced. Hell, the Atlantic is so warm I’m considering going to the cape and trolling for stripers right now in mid December. I bet I’d catch a massive bass. Oh well, on to January. After this cutter it looks like we will get a thaw for a bit on the long range models. I say bring it on, we need a pattern reset and reload. 

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One thing I've learned from reading what the mets on here have said over the years (among many learnings I might add) is this:  The Atlantic may be a big ocean, but it's no Pacific.  It was said well earlier:  Want to avoid cutters?  Get a ridge over the Pac coast/Rockies.  We didn't have the +pna where and when it was needed.  The Pacific is a force.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 12/18/2022 at 12:42 AM, George001 said:

 

The pattern did come (-nao, -epo, +pna), but the analogs didn’t work because the earth is warmer than it used to be. Yes I’m blaming climate change for this, I know I’ll get a lot of shit for it but this type of pattern used to be good until the damn ocean furnaced. Hell, the Atlantic is so warm I’m considering going to the cape and trolling for stripers right now in mid December. I bet I’d catch a massive bass. Oh well, on to January. After this cutter it looks like we will get a thaw for a bit on the long range models. I say bring it on, we need a pattern reset and reload. 

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It's not climate change...enough with that toxic vomit. Sometimes things don't work out in a good pattern.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

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  On 12/18/2022 at 12:55 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not climate change...enough with that toxic vomit. Sometimes things don't work out in a good pattern.

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While climate change is real, I don’t think it is to blame for this debacle. 

We never really locked in a +pna in this pattern despite the strong -nao. It looked good on the model runs, but it hasn’t played out as predicted. 

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

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Posted
  On 12/18/2022 at 12:58 AM, Terpeast said:

While climate change is real, I don’t think it is to blame for this debacle. 

We never really locked in a +pna in this pattern despite the strong -nao. It looked good on the model runs, but it hasn’t played out as predicted. 

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Of course it's real...has been for millions of years 

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