"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/17/2022 at 1:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

With Scooter in full on melt mode this morning.. this may have a chance. Whenever he gets like this.. history tells us we have a chance. 

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No melt, it is what it is. At least stein is happy with the qpf.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/17/2022 at 1:38 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s also important to note that even the 3 “best” solutions from those models are not snow events 

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GFS was a lot of snow on the front end…esp interior. Your area was def worse though. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/17/2022 at 1:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW

 

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Improvements 

Euro is going to fold bad

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/17/2022 at 1:38 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s also important to note that even the 3 “best” solutions from those models are not snow events 

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We’ve changed our floor. It’s no longer 18+…it’s now just flakes to save the Christmas spirit.

[JC-CT]

  On 12/17/2022 at 1:46 PM, MJO812 said:

Improvements 

Euro is going to fold bad

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So Cleveland still has a chance?

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/17/2022 at 12:05 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

We still watch.  Could still drop appreciable snow, even if messy.

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  On 12/17/2022 at 1:44 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GFS was a lot of snow on the front end…esp interior. Your area was def worse though. 

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Yet I get a weenie emoji.  It's a messy storm most likely but the antecedent airmass is still legit.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/17/2022 at 1:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW

 

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Gotta love the 944 low off the Delmarva 

[CoastalWx]

Taste the regression @TauntonBlizzard2013

[tim123]

So do 06 euro move east more?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:01 PM, tim123 said:

So do 06 euro move east more?

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Minor amount but it’s like kicking a FG in the 3rd quarter down 20-3. Gonna start needing some touchdowns. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta love the 944 low off the Delmarva 

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Gefs like 

[MJO812]

Maybe the GFS is right with the fast flow . That's what usually happens in La Nina winters , not wrapped up bombs

 

[SnowGoose69]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:04 PM, MJO812 said:

Maybe the GFS is right with the fast flow . That's what usually happens in La Nina winters , not wrapped up bombs

 

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It may be more an issue that initial coastal wave is impacting the entire thing, several people here pointed that out yesterday, if you're in Chicago or Detroit and want snow you'd most definitely be worried about that system because that can wreck this event for them...I still think the best case scenario though is this is a NRN or CNTRL NE event, even BDL/PVD may have a hard time getting this to come back enough for notable snow

[Kitz Craver]

Watch this end up a glorified FROPA. That’d be the tits. 

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Minor amount but it’s like kicking a FG in the 3rd quarter down 20-3. Gonna start needing some touchdowns. 

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Chicago, Cleveland, or Albany--all sounds like rain to me.

[CoastalWx]

At least it’s a Phil approved screaming sou’easter on the euro. If snow can’t accumulate on the ground, hopefully trees will. 

[alex]

  On 12/17/2022 at 1:42 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

FWIW

 

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Random question - I have a subscription to weathermodels.com but where do you find this map??? Can’t find it anywhere

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:14 PM, CoastalWx said:

At least it’s a Phil approved screaming sou’easter on the euro. If snow can’t accumulate on the ground, hopefully trees will. 

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Phil bringing the boat and chainsaw for Christmas after the Grinch does its work  

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:18 PM, alex said:

Random question - I have a subscription to weathermodels.com but where do you find this map??? Can’t find it anywhere

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Animator—>EPS Cyclones—>ENS mean mslp and lows

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Minor amount but it’s like kicking a FG in the 3rd quarter down 20-3. Gonna start needing some touchdowns. 

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Tip's storm needs a correction vector of about 800 miles on the Euro.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let me channel Tauntonblizz13

The 6z gfs at least has a southerly wind and Rainer New Year’s Eve And we will prob lock in a great pattern for SNE in mid April 

[ORH_wxman]

12z NAM is still staying in the GFS at 48h with the western TPV. 
 

Not worth much yet until big boys show something. But the Kotite Jets aren’t folding yet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

Taste the regression @TauntonBlizzard2013

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Can I have a taste of that? More of mother nature's ass, instead?

Cool...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Ray has been relatively skunked for 4 years and I’m going on 13 years since my last white Christmas. Truly a lot of December’s to remember recently

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:32 PM, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM is still staying in the GFS at 48h with the western TPV. 
 

Not worth much yet until big boys show something. But the Kotite Jets aren’t folding yet. 

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[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it's safe to say the epic December train has careened off of the cliff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:35 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ray has been relatively skunked for 4 years and I’m going on 13 years since my last white Christmas. Truly a lot of December’s to remember recently

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You have been anything but skunked lol 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have been anything but skunked lol 

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Yeah he was trying to lump himself in as “unlucky”….lol. I guess for the very narrow scope of white Xmas he has been but overall he’s been about the luckiest spot compared to climo in SNE the past decade. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:35 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ray has been relatively skunked for 4 years and I’m going on 13 years since my last white Christmas. Truly a lot of December’s to remember recently

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The shore there where you are is not a snowy area and certainly not a white Xmas area 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/17/2022 at 2:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he was trying to lump himself in as “unlucky”….lol. I guess for the very narrow scope of white Xmas he has been but overall he’s been about the luckiest spot compared to climo in SNE the past decade. 

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Does that very narrow scope constitute being "skunked "? What does he average, 1-2 white Xmas/decade??