"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

If that actually happens I don’t think we can call the pattern great anymore. How can we possibly get a -nao, -epo, +pna yet keep coming up empty? It makes no sense.

I feel like the universe wants to give you disappointment until your youthful spirit is quashed. 

[brooklynwx99]

we will absolutely take at 7 days out

[Damage In Tolland]

So the GEFS with their severe SE bias are already that close in . That tells you all you need to know where this is likely going 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So the GEFS with their severe SE bias are already that close in . That tells you all you need to know where this is likely going 

How much is the bias?  Do we have a link on that?

[MuddyWx]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we will absolutely take at 7 days out

Still west of 12z and 0z will be west of 18z.. GFS playing catch up with the other globals

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, weathafella said:

How much is the bias?  Do we have a link on that?

I am quite sure there’s data that someone here can provide. The event is at day 5.5-6.. so there’s plenty of time to correct to all other guidance 

[Typhoon Tip]

Again ... and nothing's forcing me to see this otherwise -

The amount and position of the western N/A ridge is > 50% of this... 

The TPV ...SPV whatever we wanna call it, is not driving how this thing behaves over the continent.  That feature is there because of the non-linear wave forcing from Rossby dispersion down stream of the Pacific, too. 

Anyway...those guidance' that were Michigan bound clearly demo the flatter ridge and early wave break over the midriff of the continent, resulting.

The GFS has been different in the relay construct from the Pac over western N/A ...

Frankly, I don't know which is correct.  But... the wave it's self is very real - how the large scale pattern delivers it, that's what's really in contention among the guidance.  I will also be the first to admit, ...I thought the western ridge would trend more robustly -

As I've advertised, there is a whopper mode change in the PNA ... it really should deliver a +PNAP response down stream... Unfortunately, if that ridge pops as a west biased variant, that would be less useful for local winter weather enthusiasts to put it nicely...  Remains to be seen. 

[Hoth]

I’m not biting on any solution, blizzard or grinch, until Monday. See you all then. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I’m not biting on any solution, blizzard or grinch, until Monday. See you all then. 

See you at 0z

[brooklynwx99]

18z GEFS improved snowfall for most

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Again ... and nothing's forcing me to see this otherwise -

The amount and position of the western N/A ridge is > 50% of this... 

The TPV ...SPV whatever we wanna call it, is not driving how this thing behaves over the continent.  That feature is there because of the non-linear wave forcing from Rossby dispersion down stream of the Pacific, too. 

Anyway...those guidance' that were Michigan bound clearly demo the flatter ridge and early wave break over the midriff of the continent, resulting.

The GFS has been different in the relay construct from the Pac over western N/A ...

Frankly, I don't know which is correct.  But... the wave it's self is very real - how the large scale pattern delivers it, that's what's really in contention among the guidance. 

The TPV is still important imho. I agree the longitude of the western ridge poses issues for a further west track but the TPV getting pinned over SE Canada allows more wiggle room for winter wx in the sensible sense. Like if this tries to cut into PIT/CLE but then it gets forced out underneath us on a secondary reflection….that’s a big winter storm for us versus maybe a quick front-ender to mild rain. 

[Hoth]

14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

See you at 0z

I’m back. What I miss?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I’m not biting on any solution, blizzard or grinch, until Monday. See you all then. 

See you at 18z eps.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The TPV is still important imho. I agree the longitude of the western ridge poses issues for a further west track but the TPV getting pinned over SE Canada allows more wiggle room for winter wx in the sensible sense. Like if this tries to cut into PIT/CLE but then it gets forced out underneath us on a secondary reflection….that’s a big winter storm for us versus maybe a quick front-ender to mild rain. 

It's important in the sensible weather... it's just not a driver... 

I mean duh...if it pins over N Ontario, and say this thing stem winds early ... this becomes a 'Minnesota squeeze'.  

Yeah...all being unfair in this p.o.s. world ... it would be better to get a squeezer over a 1994 southerly gale, sure. What you describe is the squeeze under idea

But, the ridge is what determines that S/W's trajectory in the 'dive' ...It's going to ride the ridge - that's just it. 

There's a complex aspect to this that I'm leaving out ...because I'm not sure other want it... But, a steep L/W over the Conus does delay the internal S/W break timing, because the curvature of the large scale offsets the PV of the trough, so it remains more open until it hits the bottom - ... blah blah.  The foreign models are interestingly less PNA mode change --> +PNAP

[snowiscomingdown]

I never post, but…been around since eastern. You guys are the best. No need to write this one off at D7.  This one’s coming and it’s gonna be fantastic. 

[cleetussnow]

7 minutes ago, snowiscomingdown said:

I never post, but…been around since eastern. You guys are the best. No need to write this one off at D7.  This one’s coming and it’s gonna be fantastic. 

I am going to start a lurker thread for guys like you.  I am a closet lurker.

[Snowcrazed71]

39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

18z GEFS improved snowfall for most

You heard these guys, the masters have spoken. This is not going to be a snow event. This is an inland runner and we're all going to get rain. It is set in stone.

Any who think otherwise are idiots or dreamers ( jk ).

Lolol

 

[H2Otown_WX]

Well. Gotta give credit where credit is due...THE POPE REIGNS!

[JC-CT]

18 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I am going to start a lurker thread for guys like you.  I am a closet lurker.

Sounds uneventful lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Well. Gotta give credit where credit is due...THE POPE REIGNS!

He was only off by 15 degrees. 

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

He was only off by 15 degrees. 

You mean for what you guys had today? I thought he was saying the pattern sucked and this thing around Xmas wouldn't pan out. Maybe he says that about everything though lol.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

You mean for what you guys had today? I thought he was saying the pattern sucked and this thing around Xmas wouldn't pan out. Maybe he says that about everything though lol.

He posts once every two weeks when things look like poop. When things actually look favorable it’s crickets. Strategic timing. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, snowiscomingdown said:

I never post, but…been around since eastern. You guys are the best. No need to write this one off at D7.  This one’s coming and it’s gonna be fantastic. 

Welcome, Let me be the first to initiate you............

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He posts once every two weeks when things look like poop. When things actually look favorable it’s crickets. Strategic timing. 

He also vanishes when he’s wrong and comes back several weeks later with a drive by post praying with his rosary that everyone forgot. 

[DavisStraight]

Patience grasshoppers, this pattern will get us eventually, not when we want it to, when it wants to.

[MJO812]

0z runs starting soon !

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

0z runs starting soon !

Make sure your toasters plugged in and fully charged

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Make sure your toasters plugged in and fully charged

Oh we're ready.

[MuddyWx]

18z euro handled the TPV similarly to 12z through 90h, end result probably would have been similar. and still way different than the GFS

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I am quite sure there’s data that someone here can provide. The event is at day 5.5-6.. so there’s plenty of time to correct to all other guidance 

So you don't actually have the information?