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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd


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  On 12/16/2022 at 10:24 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean...I get there are limitations...but the block can't stop storms from cutting, and it can't hold a 50/50 low..the question begs to be asked...

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All kidding aside, we keep getting these massive cold pools too far to our west.   And for whatever reason any confluence zips by to our NE.  Hopefully we can get a SWFE look.

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  On 12/16/2022 at 10:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

All kidding aside, we keep getting these massive cold pools too far to our west.   And for whatever reason any confluence zips by to our NE.  Hopefully we can get a SWFE look.

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Great patterns fail much easier in la nina...which is why it's tough to go for huge seasonal totals in a la nina even in a great seasonal pattern

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  On 12/16/2022 at 10:27 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the more important thing here is that the GFS held serve synoptically and the ICON made a big shift towards it

if the ECMWF makes the same synoptic changes, it bodes much better for a coastal storm. keep in mind that this is still 7 days out

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That lead system will undoubtedly wreak havoc on the models -- not too often you see a follow-up coastal track well west of its predecessor. But the thing is so wound up, I guess it's plausible.

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  On 12/16/2022 at 10:40 PM, Allsnow said:

All guidance is consistently out to sea with the threat after Christmas. You just know that one won’t wavier at all 

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If that actually happens I don’t think we can call the pattern great anymore. How can we possibly get a -nao, -epo, +pna yet keep coming up empty? It makes no sense.

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