"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[weathafella]

I'd like to say that the interest is much greater and reactions matching that interest given the date but I think this situation in late January wouldn't elicit a muted response....lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/16/2022 at 9:52 PM, weathafella said:

I'd like to say that the interest is much greater and reactions matching that interest given the date but I think this situation in late January wouldn't elicit a muted response....lol

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I disagree...I think going from a blizzard to Grinch on Xmas eve is absolutely, positively brutal.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hammer offers his thoughts 

[weathafella]

GFS will not be a big cutter this run.  In fact-too early to say-but it may be a great run.  I'm told ICON got better.  Let's see where EPS is in 3 hours.

[klw]

[Hoth]

Did anyone notice that 1064 mb high dropping into Montana on the Euro? That's gotta be close to a record. Beer can crushing pressure.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/16/2022 at 9:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree...I think going from a blizzard to Grinch on Xmas eve is absolutely, positively brutal.

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There wouldn’t be nearly the same amount of tracking and expectations too if not for the time of year…and recent history imho. I really do hope it works out.

[weathafella]

  On 12/16/2022 at 9:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree...I think going from a blizzard to Grinch on Xmas eve is absolutely, positively brutal.

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It's brutal every day it happens but with that said,  most of the world would rather dry sunny and mild wx for Christmas to make visitations easier.  With that also said, and I'm not one who celebrates Christmas, I'm happy to have it white and it actually means something to me.  Growing up my dad had a pharmacy.  Home from college it was a snowy morning 12/25/65 or 66 and I was tasked to shovel the front of the store which needed to be open a half day to deliver medicines.  This was obviously before the big chain pharmacies took hold to the extent they are today.  Every one in my family was giddy.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/16/2022 at 9:54 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Hammer offers his thoughts 

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#tvratings 

 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is not even on the same planet as the ECMWF with the handling of the TPV. not even close

look at the separation in BC. two distinct pieces instead of one congealed pile of crap

[40/70 Benchmark]

DT favors GFS

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/16/2022 at 9:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DT favors GFS

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I feel it's been handling the Pacific better IMO

[78Blizzard]

  On 12/16/2022 at 9:56 PM, Hoth said:

Did anyone notice that 1064 mb high dropping into Montana on the Euro? That's gotta be close to a record. Beer can crushing pressure.

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We need it dropping into Minnesota or the upper lakes.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/16/2022 at 9:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DT favors GFS

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Who cares lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/16/2022 at 10:00 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I feel it's been handling the Pacific better IMO

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Agree

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro kept trying to give us a great PAC, while GFS sniffed out lingering RNA.

[weathafella]

  On 12/16/2022 at 10:01 PM, 78Blizzard said:

We need it dropping into Minnesota or the upper lakes.

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Manitoba as your namesake storm happened.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like I said, blizzard still possible...give it until 12z tomorrow.

[brooklynwx99]

not even close. if the ECMWF ticks towards the GFS it's game on. the GFS should produce again this run

[ORH_wxman]

GFS def not budging on the PAC look

[weathafella]

  On 12/16/2022 at 10:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like I said, blizzard still possible...give it until 12z tomorrow.

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George has an alarm that goes off when someone posts that word....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/16/2022 at 9:54 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Hammer offers his thoughts 

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He looks like he’s trying to calm the weenies. 

[78Blizzard]

  On 12/16/2022 at 10:03 PM, weathafella said:

Manitoba as your namesake storm happened.

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Yeah, just north of Minnesota.  But not as strong, around 1050 mb.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/16/2022 at 10:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like I said, blizzard still possible...give it until 12z tomorrow.

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I'm not as extreme(blizzard) but I still give it till 00z Monday to shake out.  Still feel a snow event is possible for some.

[brooklynwx99]

prepare for takeoff

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/16/2022 at 10:04 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

not even close. if the ECMWF ticks towards the GFS it's game on. the GFS should produce again this run

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Plz keep posting.  Good analysis and insight.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/16/2022 at 10:08 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm not as extreme(blizzard) but I still give it till 00z Monday to shake out.  Still feel a snow event is possible for some.

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Ozone destroying blizzard or bust. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

What gives me hope is models struggling in the Pacific we see trough axis shift east.

[brooklynwx99]

S/W also coming in more meridionally, allowing it to dig more and have a chance at passing S.

TPV also nudging into NE more than the last run... look at the more zonal orientation of the wind barbs in PA, for example

this run will produce another monster storm

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/16/2022 at 10:08 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm not as extreme(blizzard) but I still give it till 00z Monday to shake out.  Still feel a snow event is possible for some.

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You know what I mean. I probably shouldn't have used that term so liberally. Major snow still possible