"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t know …Will liked the 66% odds this morning too. 

0Z GFS was an inch of Christmas snow for Houston, 6Z was 6 inches, 12Z, nothing.  But I posted ensemble 18 in the Texas thread.  Remember, hasn't snowed here in Houston in 5 years.  February 2021 was freezing drizzle.  At 14° F.  We get cold and not snow.  Was lurking, the ensemble odds tempted me to post.  GFS ensemble mean is still over a tenth of liquid and it should be cold enough Christmas day.

 

So cheer up.  Every 5-10 year snow and once a decade hurricane, and otherwise no weather in Houston

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir…but is it that significant at such a long lead as this?   If this were Tuesday or Wednesday I could see the concern much more. 66% positive at a weeks lead is a pretty good look, no? 

It is to me, because looking at the 500mb pattern I could see why there is concern. I don’t like massive cold troughs kissing the Gulf of AK from British Colombia and have no where to go, but dig into the western US. 

[CoastalWx]

I’ll look to see how they changed 

[BIsound]

I did this and I apologize . Daughter coming in from Denver on red eye Thursday night , arriving in Boston Friday am. Bought a back up ticket for Saturday last night. It was Ryan's  Thursday " possible noreaster" forecast that got to me.

I truly am sorry....

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll look to see how they changed 

Nah..it’s all good Scott. Don’t even waste anymore time on this POS.  Thanks for the info. 

[CT Rain]

6 minutes ago, BIsound said:

I did this and I apologize . Daughter coming in from Denver on red eye Thursday night , arriving in Boston Friday am. Bought a back up ticket for Saturday last night. It was Ryan's  Thursday " possible noreaster" forecast that got to me.

I truly am sorry....

It was you!! haha

Seriously though the storm may still be a bit of an aviation nightmare even without snow locally. 

[CoastalWx]

[SouthCoastMA]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah..it’s all good Scott. Don’t even waste anymore time on this POS.  Thanks for the info. 

I wouldn't waste time, but it's not 100% dead yet. I'd give it another day of keeping an eye on it to see if there are any wholescale changes in the other direction. Low chance, but still relatively far out. (especially if I lived in WNE/NNE)

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hard to see but I think these show 47% inland/35% coastal/17% full on Grinch?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hard to see but I think these show 47% inland/35% coastal/17% full on Grinch?

I see some credence perhaps to a SWFE look. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Does Ryan have a soueaster icon for his 7 day?

Oh man it won’t pan out that way but can you imagine a soueast screamer for SNE with wind damage?  No snow or no power for Christmas Eve. Lol

[SouthCoastMA]

6 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

You are in a dark place after this morning's fail. Take a step away and come back at 12z 

In hindsight, this wasn't great advice. my bad

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Oh man it won’t pan out that way but can you imagine a soueast screamer for SNE with wind damage?  No snow or no power for Christmas Eve. Lol

Did that in 2020 lol

[IowaStorm05]

Looks like you guys might be in for a potentially exciting period up that way. Nothing guaranteed but some chances at something at least 

We just shifted into deep winter here in Gainesville. No more 77 degree afternoons we had been getting every day. Looks to be mostly low 60s for foreseeable future.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah..it’s all good Scott. Don’t even waste anymore time on this POS.  Thanks for the info. 

Time to log off and go full Ron Washington this weekend. 

[MJO812]

On 12/15/2022 at 8:53 AM, Cold Miser said:

...Grinch incoming.

Word

On 12/15/2022 at 11:30 AM, CoastalWx said:

All downhill from here.

Jinx

On 12/15/2022 at 1:44 PM, ineedsnow said:

Euro is perfect!

Fail =(

[Hoth]

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see some credence perhaps to a SWFE look. 

That's my hope.

[ORH_wxman]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes, we all did. But when a third of them suck...that is statistically significant. That's all I mean. That says to me, I see some concern. 

About 10% of the members had measurable snowfall for 12/11-12/12 about 5-6 days out and most people ignored 12/11 until we got much closer.

[78Blizzard]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Word

Jinx

Fail =(

As the peeps anxiously await the 18z GFS to keep their hopes alive for a grinch-free Christmas.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's my hope.

Is there room for this to become a swfe/Miller B hybrid type of storm if we see more confluence show up?

[Baroclinic Zone]

So this rough month or so has been a textbook case of how great patterns in the Northeast don't necessarily mean great snows. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is to me, because looking at the 500mb pattern I could see why there is concern. I don’t like massive cold troughs kissing the Gulf of AK from British Colombia and have no where to go, but dig into the western US. 

 

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Is there room for this to become a swfe/Miller B hybrid type of storm if we see more confluence show up?

Keep reading...

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

So this rough month or so has been a textbook case of how great patterns in the Northeast don't necessarily mean great snows. 

I'll keep that in mind the next time I see someone claiming a great pattern is shaping up for the period..........

[brooklynwx99]

the ICON made a sizeable shift towards the GFS in terms of its handling of the TPV

this is likely due to the stronger AK vort, which slows it down and allows the some of the TPV to slip out ahead of it. if the GFS holds, it might actually be handling that piece of energy well... we'll see in a bit

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

So this rough month or so has been a textbook case of how great patterns in the Northeast don't necessarily mean great snows. 

This is why I didn't go nuts with my seasonal totals. Steve asked...this month is the answer.

That said, it's not impossible for the GFS to seize the coup back from the GEM. Very unlikely, yes..

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ICON made a sizeable shift towards the GFS in terms of its handling of the TPV

this is likely due to the stronger AK vort, which slows it down and allows the some of the TPV to slip out ahead of it. if the GFS holds, it might actually be handling that piece of energy well... we'll see in a bit

 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I didn't go nuts with my seasonal totals. Steve asked...this month is the answer.

That said, it's not impossible for the GFS to seize the coup back from the GEM. Very unlikely, yes..

 

[cut]

Might want to change the name of the thread - chuck the bigger snow plow for … hmmm …. Sand bags? …. Row boat?  …. Bilge pump? Just a thought. So damn frustrating.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ICON made a sizeable shift towards the GFS in terms of its handling of the TPV

this is likely due to the stronger AK vort, which slows it down and allows the some of the TPV to slip out ahead of it. if the GFS holds, it might actually be handling that piece of energy well... we'll see in a bit

I’d like to see a multi suite shift there but if I’m honest confidence in a forecast won’t be higher until the Euro makes a similar type of shift, or the GFS goes boldly (and consistently) in the other direction. 

I’m of the opinion that it’s way too early to punt this threat. Let’s see how that evolution evolves in the next 48 hours and go from there. 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS likely going to hold serve. handling the AK vort pretty much exactly the same