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"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2022 at 8:33 PM, WinterWolf said:

I don’t know …Will liked the 66% odds this morning too. 

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0Z GFS was an inch of Christmas snow for Houston, 6Z was 6 inches, 12Z, nothing.  But I posted ensemble 18 in the Texas thread.  Remember, hasn't snowed here in Houston in 5 years.  February 2021 was freezing drizzle.  At 14° F.  We get cold and not snow.  Was lurking, the ensemble odds tempted me to post.  GFS ensemble mean is still over a tenth of liquid and it should be cold enough Christmas day.

 

So cheer up.  Every 5-10 year snow and once a decade hurricane, and otherwise no weather in Houston

P18.PNG

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HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

Just for fun…  

WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

Gather 'round weenies. I don't do this often, but it’s story time with Cousin Donnie.  I knew Winter way back when I was a kid. Winter was kind. Winter always seemed to go above and beyond. Winte

Kitz Craver
Kitz Craver

My dear Mom passed away relatively suddenly from colorectal cancer at the end of last February. Devastated the family, f’d me up pretty good too. Trying to pick up the pieces and feel good again. This

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2022 at 8:37 PM, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir…but is it that significant at such a long lead as this?   If this were Tuesday or Wednesday I could see the concern much more. 66% positive at a weeks lead is a pretty good look, no? 

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It is to me, because looking at the 500mb pattern I could see why there is concern. I don’t like massive cold troughs kissing the Gulf of AK from British Colombia and have no where to go, but dig into the western US. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2022 at 8:44 PM, BIsound said:

I did this and I apologize . Daughter coming in from Denver on red eye Thursday night , arriving in Boston Friday am. Bought a back up ticket for Saturday last night. It was Ryan's  Thursday " possible noreaster" forecast that got to me.

I truly am sorry....

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It was you!! haha

Seriously though the storm may still be a bit of an aviation nightmare even without snow locally. 

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2022 at 8:45 PM, WinterWolf said:

Nah..it’s all good Scott. Don’t even waste anymore time on this POS.  Thanks for the info. 

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I wouldn't waste time, but it's not 100% dead yet. I'd give it another day of keeping an eye on it to see if there are any wholescale changes in the other direction. Low chance, but still relatively far out. (especially if I lived in WNE/NNE)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2022 at 8:34 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yes, we all did. But when a third of them suck...that is statistically significant. That's all I mean. That says to me, I see some concern. 

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About 10% of the members had measurable snowfall for 12/11-12/12 about 5-6 days out and most people ignored 12/11 until we got much closer.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2022 at 8:42 PM, CoastalWx said:

It is to me, because looking at the 500mb pattern I could see why there is concern. I don’t like massive cold troughs kissing the Gulf of AK from British Colombia and have no where to go, but dig into the western US. 

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  On 12/16/2022 at 9:28 PM, George001 said:

Is there room for this to become a swfe/Miller B hybrid type of storm if we see more confluence show up?

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Keep reading...

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2022 at 9:32 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

So this rough month or so has been a textbook case of how great patterns in the Northeast don't necessarily mean great snows. 

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This is why I didn't go nuts with my seasonal totals. Steve asked...this month is the answer.

That said, it's not impossible for the GFS to seize the coup back from the GEM. Very unlikely, yes..

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2022 at 9:43 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the ICON made a sizeable shift towards the GFS in terms of its handling of the TPV

this is likely due to the stronger AK vort, which slows it down and allows the some of the TPV to slip out ahead of it. if the GFS holds, it might actually be handling that piece of energy well... we'll see in a bit

21acda4f-88ac-40cd-a557-0a3b31242abe.gif.bd488417a1ea5a528178b4511907a3f7.thumb.gif.8ffd21c0e815a61e0b67be7dc85461ee.gificon_z500_vort_ak_fh57_trend.thumb.gif.502bd58980893fa6e7d51adc4ba9af54.gif

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  On 12/16/2022 at 9:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I didn't go nuts with my seasonal totals. Steve asked...this month is the answer.

That said, it's not impossible for the GFS to seize the coup back from the GEM. Very unlikely, yes..

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2022 at 9:43 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the ICON made a sizeable shift towards the GFS in terms of its handling of the TPV

this is likely due to the stronger AK vort, which slows it down and allows the some of the TPV to slip out ahead of it. if the GFS holds, it might actually be handling that piece of energy well... we'll see in a bit

21acda4f-88ac-40cd-a557-0a3b31242abe.gif.bd488417a1ea5a528178b4511907a3f7.thumb.gif.8ffd21c0e815a61e0b67be7dc85461ee.gificon_z500_vort_ak_fh57_trend.thumb.gif.502bd58980893fa6e7d51adc4ba9af54.gif

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I’d like to see a multi suite shift there but if I’m honest confidence in a forecast won’t be higher until the Euro makes a similar type of shift, or the GFS goes boldly (and consistently) in the other direction. 

I’m of the opinion that it’s way too early to punt this threat. Let’s see how that evolution evolves in the next 48 hours and go from there. 

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