"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Damn, that was ugly… as where the last 5 pages. Pattern looks good after xmas though lol.

I enjoyed both.  

 

[wxsniss]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What relevence is that DISO? The data has changed,

I posted the Box disco an example that it was not just people on this forum who were taking yesterday's guidance and the large scale pattern to believe there was a decent chance of snow.

[MuddyWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Damn, that was ugly… as where the last 5 pages. Pattern looks good after xmas though lol.

The 10-15 day outlook is real intriguing

[cleetussnow]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I apologize but I dropped $1500 on a new snowblower this week.  Was hoping to have it by now but will have it delivered Tuesday.  Just on time to sit in the garage.  I knew I was killing winter when I bought it but I’m tired of fighting my crappy one.

I sold my snowmobiles.  Cannot believe a snowblower trumps that.

[ariof]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s one of the most reliable seasonal phenomena I’ve ever witnessed 

So I pulled data for KBOS at some point, did some unholy things with Excel and statistics, and it seems to show that the Grinch is real and a recent phenomenon.

The data: 1936-2021 data for Boston (since obs were moved to Logan), and then for each day of the year I calculated the slope of the trend line for that day. So, for instance, January 1 is trending warmer by 0.019˚ per year (so 1˚ every 50 years), January 2 warmer by 0.005˚ per year, Jan 3 cooler by 0.025˚ per year.

Obviously, any one day is going to be affected by outliers. But on average, temperatures have increased by 0.022˚ per year (so 1˚F every 45 years). That seems about right.

But this is not evenly distributed across the year. For one thing, the winter and summer are warming by more than the spring and fall. May, October and November are only warming by about 1˚ every 100 years, February and September by 1˚ every 30ish and December 1˚ every 20! During a portion of late October and early November, if you average over a 21-day period, it's actually gotten slightly cooler. I assume this has something to do with sun angle and oceans, but I'm not about to explain it.

And then there's the Grinch. The single highest day for warming, on a 21 day average, 0.079˚ per year (so something like 5˚ since 1936) is December 24, nearly 3.5 times the overall average. The only days over 0.Which squares with our experience. But here's the really bizarre thing. The 31-day average is long enough that it mostly smooths out these changes, but if you look at a weekly average, there are very obvious waves of warmth in the winter, following a pattern which does not exist in the summer. In the summer, the 7 and 31 day averages mostly track close, but in winter there are wild swings. The 7 days centered Nov 21 are cooling at a rate of 0.006˚ pear year, the 7 centered on Dec 1 are warming at 0.07˚, the 7 days centered on December 8 are -0.007. Then there's the grinch, late December all up 0.06-0.077 (December 23, naturally) before a 3-week wave pattern emerges:

Jan 2: 0.005
Jan 11: 0.11
Jan 23: -0.012
Feb 1: 0.074
Feb 12: -0.007
Feb 23: 0.07
Mar 4: 0.007
Mar 11: 0.058
Mar 24: -0.008

I have no idea what is going on with this, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is some mechanism or oscillation or something somewhere which sort of pushes warmer and colder air and is based enough on solar changes that there is seasonality. Or something? I need a real hardcore climatologist to figure out wtf this is, or if I've just cooked the data somehow.

[cleetussnow]

Someone needs to go out and buy a boat.  A bigger boat.  

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My wife found a 24 acre place we can buy in northern VT.  Tempting….

 

That's so funny! You should say that. My husband and I originally were thinking that we'd be retiring down in South America or the Caribbean, now......We're actually thinking about retiring up in Quebec City. That will make me a very happy man lol

[Jebman]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My wife found a 24 acre place we can buy in northern VT.  Tempting….

Look at it this way, weathafella. You make the exciting move to Northern Vermont. You will be very close to Jay Peak! You just stroll over there after a routine 72 inch snowstorm and ski in neck-deep pow all day and then send us all pictures and videos.

You think its too much snow? I come dig you out with a patented Jebman Shovel. You're all good now. Make the move. Get snowed in, enjoy it to the full.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I enjoyed both.  

 

Train wrecks are hard to look away from.   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Something happened to make the models do a complete hard turn towards these current solutions. I doubt it’s going to come back.

see Gooses post below 
 

 

28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don't think this is coming back...the problem is the whole W Canada PV change is inside 72, for the models to make that shift like this and be wrong on that is unlikely...its possible though its nowhere near as amped as the Op Euro...as a matter of fact its likely it is nowhere near that amped...it could trend to a glorified FROPA as I said earlier 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, ariof said:

So I pulled data for KBOS at some point, did some unholy things with Excel and statistics, and it seems to show that the Grinch is real and a recent phenomenon.

The data: 1936-2021 data for Boston (since obs were moved to Logan), and then for each day of the year I calculated the slope of the trend line for that day. So, for instance, January 1 is trending warmer by 0.019˚ per year (so 1˚ every 50 years), January 2 warmer by 0.005˚ per year, Jan 3 cooler by 0.025˚ per year.

Obviously, any one day is going to be affected by outliers. But on average, temperatures have increased by 0.022˚ per year (so 1˚F every 45 years). That seems about right.

But this is not evenly distributed across the year. For one thing, the winter and summer are warming by more than the spring and fall. May, October and November are only warming by about 1˚ every 100 years, February and September by 1˚ every 30ish and December 1˚ every 20! During a portion of late October and early November, if you average over a 21-day period, it's actually gotten slightly cooler. I assume this has something to do with sun angle and oceans, but I'm not about to explain it.

And then there's the Grinch. The single highest day for warming, on a 21 day average, 0.079˚ per year (so something like 5˚ since 1936) is December 24, nearly 3.5 times the overall average. The only days over 0.Which squares with our experience. But here's the really bizarre thing. The 31-day average is long enough that it mostly smooths out these changes, but if you look at a weekly average, there are very obvious waves of warmth in the winter, following a pattern which does not exist in the summer. In the summer, the 7 and 31 day averages mostly track close, but in winter there are wild swings. The 7 days centered Nov 21 are cooling at a rate of 0.006˚ pear year, the 7 centered on Dec 1 are warming at 0.07˚, the 7 days centered on December 8 are -0.007. Then there's the grinch, late December all up 0.06-0.077 (December 23, naturally) before a 3-week wave pattern emerges:

Jan 2: 0.005
Jan 11: 0.11
Jan 23: -0.012
Feb 1: 0.074
Feb 12: -0.007
Feb 23: 0.07
Mar 4: 0.007
Mar 11: 0.058
Mar 24: -0.008

I have no idea what is going on with this, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is some mechanism or oscillation or something somewhere which sort of pushes warmer and colder air and is based enough on solar changes that there is seasonality. Or something? I need a real hardcore climatologist to figure out wtf this is, or if I've just cooked the data somehow.

Wow, great effort! Thanks

[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

That's so funny! You should say that. My husband and I originally were thinking that we'd be retiring down in South America or the Caribbean, now......We're actually thinking about retiring up in Quebec City. That will make me a very happy man lol

Canada is wonderful, go for it!

[Chris12WX]

Just embrace the Grinch. Happens every year. Shouldn’t be surprising. December isn’t a winter month anyway. 

[WinterWolf]

Like I said, it’s almost a relief it’s over.  Wholesale changes at H5…and in one day. Oh well.  
 

Time for a few beers now, and forget about this BS. Time for a break for a few days. 
 

There will be another shot at a storm at some point... I hope. 
 

T. Blizz wins this one. 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

That's so funny! You should say that. My husband and I originally were thinking that we'd be retiring down in South America or the Caribbean, now......We're actually thinking about retiring up in Quebec City. That will make me a very happy man lol

Quebec is nice-presuming you are fluent in French?  Urban amenities with tons of snow!

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I posted the Box disco an example that it was not just people on this forum who were taking yesterday's guidance and the large scale pattern to believe there was a decent chance of snow.

Gotcha.

[Baroclinic Zone]

We still watch this "threat".  Lower probability but still in mid range.

Kick back and fret not.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Like I said, it’s almost a relief it’s over.  Wholesale changes at H5…and in one day. Oh well.  
 

Time for a few beers now, and forget about this BS. Time for a break for a few days. 
 

There will be another shot at a storm at some point... I hope. 
 

T. Blizz wins this one. 

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Look at it this way, weathafella. You make the exciting move to Northern Vermont. You will be very close to Jay Peak! You just stroll over there after a routine 72 inch snowstorm and ski in neck-deep pow all day and then send us all pictures and videos.

Me skiing in neck deep powder would likely be followed by my funeral.  But I’d get a heavy duty truck and plow the ponderosa.

[Jebman]

Just now, weathafella said:

Me skiing in neck deep powder would likely be followed by my funeral.  But I’d get a heavy duty truck and plow the ponderosa.

Well, ski in 24 inches of pow. That mountain gets smashed by high quality pow all the time. Its a world-renowned snow magnet. You'd enjoy that. They are just gettin started right now.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We still watch this "threat".  Lower probability but still in mid range.

Kick back and fret not.

Nah…she gone; gone like Brady’s Super Bowl hopes. 

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Quebec is nice-presuming you are fluent in French?  Urban amenities with tons of snow!

My other half those french pretty well, me not so much lol. My mom is a Canadian citizen, so I can put in for dual citizenship. It really is a thought, but we're not going anywhere for at least the next 12 years.

Who knows, by that point Quebec City may be more like New York City with the weather haha

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Newman said:

Just incredible changes at the surface downstream due to the changes we saw with the handling of the PV energy at day 3-4

There’s not much that is unusual or very extraordinary at all about that kind of variance at 160+ hours. 

It’s clear that people need (almost to the extent of an addictive response) steady trigger of thrills from the modeling cinema, and when they don’t get it…  it really becomes intolerable both for them, but also for anybody that’s trying to just engage normally with this site – unfortunately.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

see Gooses post below 
 

 

 

While true most of the time, it pretty much just did exactly what he said it wouldn't do within 84 hours i.e. make a drastic change.

[Cold Miser]

On 12/15/2022 at 8:53 AM, Cold Miser said:

...Grinch incoming.

Just in case people forgot who rules Christmas.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah…she gone; gone like Brady’s Super Bowl hopes. 

I see, playing the ole DIT reverse psychology.  

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah…she gone; gone like Brady’s Super Bowl hopes. 

You quitting in day 7? Day 7?

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Just in case people forgot who rules Christmas.

It's the 3rd thing guaranteed in life after death and taxes.

[Damage In Tolland]

O Euro pee O Euro pee

How shitty are your forecasts