"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[dryslot]

Hold it, And hug it.

[Kitz Craver]

‘Sup peeps…

[Kitz Craver]

Been a minute, can’t access my OG profile. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We don’t control the weather,  but I’d it’s going to rain 2 days before Christmas, I’d just as well shoot this storm to fucking Bermuda.

[Modfan2]

Is Tip on a streak of James like thread starting lol?!

[moneypitmike]

 

  On 12/16/2022 at 11:37 AM, Modfan2 said:

Is Tip on a streak of James like thread starting lol?!

Expand  

LOL.  I don't see why anything that far out is't relegated to the general pattern/discussion thread.  

[MJO812]

I'm canceling winter if we miss out

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/16/2022 at 11:50 AM, MJO812 said:

I'm canceling winter if we miss out

Expand  

Stop.  
There’s gonna be good and not so good runs. We all know this. There’s gonna be huggers and whiffs and some that cut inland some…we knew this was coming. It’s part of the story when you track from a week out.  
 

So let’s not get too carried away with OP looks..even if they show great or not so great looks.  It’s all on the table. 

[SnoSki14]

  On 12/16/2022 at 11:50 AM, MJO812 said:

I'm canceling winter if we miss out

Expand  

I hope you realize how rare 4"+ snows are in December for your area. 

Hell NYC struggles to hit freezing until mid-late Dec

[MJO812]

Damn people actually took me serious 

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:02 PM, MJO812 said:

Damn people actually took me serious 

Expand  

It doesn't take much to rain on their parades...

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 12/16/2022 at 9:29 AM, Jebman said:

You guys up there are going to get absolutely ANNIHILATED by immense amounts of snow!

Expand  

What...what is this? Ya doin' this in another subforum? How long...how long has this been going on?? How...how COULD you?? 

[Snowcrazed71]

 The models are going to show so many different scenarios. The mere fact that there's a storm on the models, and some really good cold air around are all encouraging signs.

Yesterday they showed blockbuster storm but it takes a lot to get that kind of storm in December. I just hope we do get some snow, even if it's just two to four inches. That way we'll have a nice festive Christmas

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea. You can see this favoring hug and in land runners on all the ens. No 50/50, no bueno.

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:15 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. You can see this favoring hug and in land runners on all the ens. No 50/50, no bueno.

Expand  

A week out ?

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:15 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. You can see this favoring hug and in land runners on all the ens. No 50/50, no bueno.

Expand  

lol…where’s the 50/50 go? It was there in the 500 mb pattern look a day it two ago. Too funny.   But we haven’t had a 50/50 in years for some big ones it seems. 

[rgwp96]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:02 PM, MJO812 said:

Damn people actually took me serious 

Expand  

You are  gonna get zero lol

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:23 PM, rgwp96 said:

Your gonna get zero lol

Expand  

Probably 

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:31 PM, MJO812 said:

Probably 

Expand  

Those are the correct expectations 6.5-7 days out

[Damage In Tolland]

Look at all the members running this up into CNY. I worry 

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 12/16/2022 at 10:45 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

6z gfs is a pretty funny way to basically miss this event entirely 

Expand  

it's also the least wet so I'd rather have something like that happen

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at all the members running this up into CNY. I worry 

Expand  

Frickin' buckshot SLPs on a target.  LOL.

[Henry's Weather]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at all the members running this up into CNY. I worry 

Expand  

Looks like a strong storm signal on the EC at 7.5 days out, nice

[Hoth]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at all the members running this up into CNY. I worry 

Expand  

Everything from Cleveland Superbomb to whiff on the table. Just happy to see a lot of powerful solutions at this range. I won't start fretting over this until Monday.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/16/2022 at 11:16 AM, Kitz Craver said:

‘Sup peeps…

Expand  

Sup where ya been

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:20 PM, WinterWolf said:

lol…where’s the 50/50 go? It was there in the 500 mb pattern look a day it two ago. Too funny.   But we haven’t had a 50/50 in years for some big ones it seems. 

Expand  

It leaves:

 

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:19 PM, MJO812 said:

A week out ?

Expand  

Yea well when you have a ridge in the newF area, the smart play is to favor huggers/inland. We’ll have to overcome it with the trough digging deeper into the SE and/or a little disjointed phase initially. 

[WxWatcher007]

Zero concern. It’s Friday. The ensembles have a big signal for something significant and the ops reflect a system that’s in the ballpark of a big winter wx event. 

If we’re cutting up the Hudson or saying congrats Nova Scotia late Sunday I’ll recalibrate but for now there’s no reason imo to get too high or too low on next week. 

But I know that’s what we do here and it adds to the cinema. B+ drama so far. 

[UnitedWx]

Must be a mess just up Northwest of me. 32.5 and mixed rain and snow the last half hour in westfield. The temperature is dropped a degree in the last 2 hours

[George001]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:48 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It leaves:

 

Yea well when you have a ridge in the newF area, the smart play is to favor huggers/inland. We’ll have to overcome it with the trough digging deeper into the SE and/or a little disjointed phase initially. 

Expand  

The 50/50 could easily come back, I would think the blocking would keep it locked in rather than escaping east. 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 12/16/2022 at 12:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at all the members running this up into CNY. I worry 

Expand  

Conversely.. look at all the member off shore.  It's to early to worry. 

Have a beer and relax ;-)