"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[MJO812]

Jeez

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In what way?

It's not a high risk for occurrence ...  but, should it bully into the Ohio Valley and dig more, we end up dealing with some sort of possible storm implication with that...and it would not be abundantly clear whether it would effect the upstream arrival of the one we are currently targeting...

It's just that it's a non-zero chance for interference ...but it's low for now.    I wouldn't call it a 'turd' Winter'   lol...   but if we must, hey - it's really really polished!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS still shows a nuke. no need to even look at the surface

Fwiw, it's a historic in depth no question...

It's sub 965 in the Boston Harbor.

I'm not worried at all about ptype, despite this run running liquid as far W as ORH, because that's clearly model BL hallucinations when the 500 mb is < 520 DM in the core of 4 or 5 contoured isohypsotic canyon.  That's likely snowing everywhere accept the elbow.   You almost want the model doing that at this range in a weird way...

[powderfreak]

lol. Who said 500mb troughs in the means couldn’t produce.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez

That’s insNe for an ensemble mean a week out

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

New Moon goon!  Tides starting to get BIG to the 10FT mark Wednesday peaking at 11.2 Saturday.

We circled the new moon goon on Christmas back in July. It was either gonna be a grinch soueaster or a blizzard. LFG

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

That is one hell of a blue norther preceding the storm genesis. 1060 high diving into the US and that front just races along the front range to the Mexican border.

Coldest Christmas since 1980 Nation wide?

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When a piece of the pv manages to smear across to our north at the last minute preventing a well defined phase. It may have other uses. It was derived from when Scooter and his family had a serious stomach bug where scooter spent days kept cleaning up shit streaks all around his house. 

LOL I forgot that's where that's from.  Wasn't that way back like a decade or more ago 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Coldest Christmas since 1980 Nation wide?

I dunno check out 1983 Xmas in the CONUS. That may have ‘80 beat too (not locally but in many other areas)

[ROOSTA]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Coldest Christmas since 1980 narion wide?

The snow-cover is expansive.
Have all 50 States at once experience a White Christmas?  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s insNe for an ensemble mean a week out

 

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s insNe for an ensemble mean a week out

Those are the weenie maps from storm vista that are always 2-3x too high. The mean for the storm is 4-6”.. 

[PowderBeard]

The Dawn Awakening! 

 

Ugh, he would have been great in this thread. 

[wxeyeNH]

If the models continue to show this solution for the next few days the media is going to pick it up and go wild with it since it coincides with Christmas travel.  Then watch..... things don't phase as shown and this ends up being much weaker or develop well out to sea and being a nothing burger.  Mets will have egg on their face.  I wish this was 4 or 5 days out and not 7.  I will say (if I remember correctly) the big epic storms like 78 or 1993 were forecasted well in advance I believe since so many models were honking days before the event.

[DavisStraight]

15 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

If the models continue to show this solution for the next few days the media is going to pick it up and go wild with it since it coincides with Christmas travel.  Then watch..... things don't phase as shown and this ends up being much weaker or develop well out to sea and being a nothing burger.  Mets will have egg on their face.  I wish this was 4 or 5 days out and not 7.  I will say (if I remember correctly) the big epic storms like 78 or 1993 were forecasted well in advance I believe since so many models were honking days before the event.

The 93 storm too was forecast many days in advance.

[J Paul Gordon]

Aside from a lot of folks wanting an epic everything...what would be so bad about having a widespread 4-6 inches a couple days before Christmas?

[78Blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

Those are the weenie maps from storm vista that are always 2-3x too high. The mean for the storm is 4-6”.. 

Those Weather Bell maps are underdone.  If you compute the total GEFS qpf for the storm it becomes obvious, especially in areas that stay in the 20's throughout the storm.  That area NW of Worcester to S NH shows 6.6-6.7 in their snow map, yet total qpf shows an average around 1.25".  Temps there are in the low to mid 20's, and the upper levels are all quite cold.

I used the Pivotal maps for the qpf and temps, but their maps have the snowfall totals underdone as well on the GEFS.

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Aside from a lot of folks wanting an epic everything...what would be so bad about having a widespread 4-6 inches a couple days before Christmas?

2-3' or bust 

[Sn0waddict]

Man can’t wait to see how this goes wrong. Perhaps a double barreled low or it ends up chasing convection east? Lol

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I dunno check out 1983 Xmas in the CONUS. That may have ‘80 beat too (not locally but in many other areas)

Yep 83 is nations coldest

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Aside from a lot of folks wanting an epic everything...what would be so bad about having a widespread 4-6 inches a couple days before Christmas?

Of course but this is a decadal setup

[Jebman]

You're gonna need a bigger SHOVEL.

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Deadbeat parents looking for last minute gifts spending Christmas in their buried cars on I-95. Oceanfront properties in Taunton encased in ice from sea spray blown in off the Atlantic like ICBMs. Jerry absolutely sloshed from a Crown bender and falling into snow banks on his walk through the neighborhood. TBlizz meh’ing the blizzard while on his toilet and then screaming for his wife as the ceiling caves in and buries him in slate shingles and paste. Police departments inundated with calls of middle aged men disrobing and shoveling driveways mumbling “is this what it feels like to live at 500mb”.

We hope to see it. We pray to see it. We need to see it. 

This.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

23 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Those Weather Bell maps are underdone.  If you compute the total GEFS qpf for the storm it becomes obvious, especially in areas that stay in the 20's throughout the storm.  That area NW of Worcester to S NH shows 6.6-6.7 in their snow map, yet total qpf shows an average around 1.25".  Temps there are in the low to mid 20's, and the upper levels are all quite cold.

I used the Pivotal maps for the qpf and temps, but their maps have the snowfall totals underdone as well on the GEFS.

That’s bc some members cut and not all qpf is snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, Jebman said:

You're gonna need a bigger SHOVEL.

Nah gotta go societal 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully it's a very strong storm and hugger track, so NNE gets crushed even if they mix some.

[Hoth]

21 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Man can’t wait to see how this goes wrong. Perhaps a double barreled low or it ends up chasing convection east? Lol

We all like boobs, but I swear to God if I see that shit on a weather map this winter I'll lose it.

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Aside from a lot of folks wanting an epic everything...what would be so bad about having a widespread 4-6 inches a couple days before Christmas?

There would be nothing wrong with that at all in a vacuum. A warning level snow and frigid Christmas can be painfully elusive as we've seen in recent years. 

However, we're halfway through an epic, and the expectation for the ending of an epic is never "solid" or "good". 

14 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Man can’t wait to see how this goes wrong. Perhaps a double barreled low or it ends up chasing convection east? Lol

Double barreled low  

[George001]

Torch Tiger really wants the low to cut to Wisconsin with no secondary whatsoever, flooding all of New England with 60 degree temps and heavy rain. He likes warmer weather.

[bristolri_wx]

13 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully it's a very strong storm and hugger track, so NNE gets crushed even if they mix some.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

LOL I forgot that's where that's from.  Wasn't that way back like a decade or more ago 

I don’t think it that was that long ago. Will probably has it stored on his mental flash drive, he’ll know.