"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[MJO812]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:44 PM, SnoSki14 said:

A little disjointed with the double low but I'll take it at this range 

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Yep way better than 0z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:44 PM, MJO812 said:

Yep way better than 0z

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Good spot. We don’t want perfection now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:44 PM, SnoSki14 said:

A little disjointed with the double low but I'll take it at this range 

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This is going to be a CJ jack....watch.

We will all get it good, though

[cut]

And this on Christmas week!!! I feel like a kid again!!!! Magic!!!

[Chris12WX]

GFS reminds me of January 2018.

[Sn0waddict]

GFS and EURO in agreement at almost 200 hours out. What could possibly go wrong?? 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is going to be a CJ jack....watch.

We will all get it good, though

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Big proclamation this far out.    

[ORH_wxman]

That was almost an epic run....still a great solution, but we barely missed a total capture of the ULL diving through VA.....the shortwave that is responsible for the storm outruns it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

LOL @ 967mb low E of P-Town.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

Big proclamation this far out.    

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Watch.

[dryslot]

Its going to be a beast, One way or another, Just a matter of where it ends up tracking, A lot of cold air feeding into that circulation over warm gulf waters will ignite it, To bad were so far out from it right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:48 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That was almost an epic run....still a great solution, but we barely missed a total capture of the ULL diving through VA.....the shortwave that is responsible for the storm outruns it.

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Yea, we aren't going to get 533 consecutive flawless phases.

[WxWatcher007]

Excellent run at this range. EPS should be really nice.

[SnoSki14]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:48 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That was almost an epic run....still a great solution, but we barely missed a total capture of the ULL diving through VA.....the shortwave that is responsible for the storm outruns it.

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Does anyone want a flawless run right now 

I'm just happy models are in good agreement already. Usually a good sign of something big 

[Chris12WX]

We’re on to the EPS.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:52 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Does anyone want a flawless run right now 

I'm just happy models are in good agreement already. Usually a good sign of something big 

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I wasn't opining on whether it would verify like that....just that it barely missed an epic solution. Like top 5 all time type stuff. I'm not even taking these OP runs seriously at all.....ensemble forecasting is the way to go until we're about 3-4 days closer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I wasn't opining on whether it would verify like that....just that it barely missed an epic solution. Like top 5 all time type stuff. I'm not even taking these OP runs seriously at all.....ensemble forecasting is the way to go until we're about 3-4 days closer.

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This has like Feb 1978, Feb 2013 potential.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:53 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I wasn't opining on whether it would verify like that....just that it barely missed an epic solution. Like top 5 all time type stuff. I'm not even taking these OP runs seriously at all.....ensemble forecasting is the way to go until we're about 3-4 days closer.

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Absolutely. The ensembles are for forecasting. The ops are for cinematic drama at this range and the action is starting to get good. 

[brooklynwx99]

my god. classic look here for a NYC - BOS crusher, about all you can ask for at this range

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:57 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Absolutely. The ensembles are for forecasting. The ops are for cinematic drama at this range and the action is starting to get good. 

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Yup. Buckle up ladies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wife just called me to tell me that my 3 yr old daughter is raging..."mummy, where did the snow go!"

I told her, "don't worry, daddy will put it back in time for Xmas"

Yea, if this finds a way to fail, then I quit.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/15/2022 at 7:02 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wife just called me to tell me that my 3 yr old daughter is raging..."mummy, where did the snow go!"

I told her, "don't worry, daddy will put it back in time for Xmas"

Yea, if this finds a way to fail, then I quit.

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Suck it up buttercup.  Grinch just stole it all away. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has like Feb 1978, Feb 2013 potential.

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If we get that type of storm 2 days before Christmas just wow

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2022 at 7:09 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If we get that type of storm 2 days before Christmas just wow

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Probably not the CF potential of Feb '78, but as far as intensity of the low and excessive snowfall.

[SnoSki14]

This doesn't hurt either. A lot of fuel out there

[CT Rain]

We chuck. 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/15/2022 at 7:15 PM, CT Rain said:

We chuck. 

 

 

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Beer time 

[40/70 Benchmark]

No melting on Xmas, either...pissah.

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks on board for a biggie. Near the Cape elbow.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/15/2022 at 7:21 PM, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks on board for a biggie. Near the Cape elbow.

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Take.