"We're gonna need a bigger plow..." Massive, persistent singal now emerges discretely in the models, 20th-23rd

[dryslot]

Lets all salivate over 200hr+ Op model progs!!!!

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

That moisture plume straight out the BoC

I noticed that. Deep tropical connection.

[ROOSTA]

BOMBS AWAY
Need this to be inside D5.
As is I might get to a flurry. "The road is long with many a winding turn."  
Looking mighty fine!

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

Lets all salivate over 200hr+ Op model progs!!!!

It’s all we got right now Jeff.  You got a foot plus coming, we have cold rain.  So unfortunately we look ahead. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Merry Christmas morning. Kids with frostbite playing on their new sled on a foot of snow. 

 

Oh how we pray. 

[EastonSN+]

Epic storm depiction on GFS!

Let's wait for the CMC to roll before we get our hopes up

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Epic storm depiction on GFS!

Let's wait for this week to roll before we get our hopes up

 

Yea....

[wxsniss]

207-213 GFS about as upper echelon as you can get for SNE

Near textbook perfection at 8 days (vs. 6z GFS), the big ones often have that kind of epic signal that wavers in and out

CMC swings too late

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Let the n and w trend begin

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Lets all salivate over 200hr+ Op model progs!!!!

You're right...let me salivate over the snow that you will get tomorrow and I assuredly will not, instead.

[Mikeymac5306]

If it holds, congratulations, and RIP Boston... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'd get deformed there....expect changes.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Mikeymac5306 said:

If it holds, congratulations, and RIP Boston... 

safe to say…something significant is brewing for east coast winter enthusiasts, that’s about all you can a say a week out. But we like the look. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Do you guys remember that "I have a dream" post that I made like a month ago that got me about 13 buns?

This is it.

[Sn0waddict]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Epic storm depiction on GFS!

Let's wait for the CMC to roll before we get our hopes up

 

CMC is a nothing burger. No storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

A Christmas Eve blizzard would be awesome but not good timing for travelers. 

Oh, pretty, pretty please...

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you guys remember that "I have a dream" post that I made like a month ago that got me about 13 buns?

This is it.

I remember it…pretty dam close with that depiction.  

[cleetussnow]

Hold up - All these posts about 'too bad it's hour 200, 'you don't want to be in the jackpot this far out...etc.'

I say BS for the following reasons:

1. Where would you rather be right now?  Low cutting up into Detroit?  Nova Scotia?  Ripped up shredded mess out underneath us?  Are those better?

2.  The pattern on multiple models has been developing the most favorable pattern we have seen in many years.  Do you expect there to NOT be a storm right where you want given the GEFS/EPS/GEM depictions of late?  We generally accept the pattern features to be favorable, why not a storm?

3.  When is it BAD to see a snowstorm depicted?  I say never.  

4. MANY times storms of biggie magnitude are picked up at these time frames.  '93 is an example when models were limited.  Boxing day was coming into focus.  It faded in the middle cycles, but the longer-range depictions were correct.  

Again: Men and Women:

 

[ROOSTA]

Expect changes?
Understatement of the model run and without question accurate.
Sure, does look nice thought.  

[MJO812]

Back to back snowstorms 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

CMC is a nothing burger. No storm.

That model blows…period. Sometimes it sniffs something, then it can’t keep even a semblance of it.  I know we’re 7 days out…but it’s erratic all the time. 

[ROOSTA]

To sedate "our" fix. Model agreement would be the next step. 
Predict this thread will surpass 200 pages.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Hold up - All these posts about 'too bad it's hour 200, 'you don't want to be in the jackpot this far out...etc.'

I say BS for the following reasons:

1. Where would you rather be right now?  Low cutting up into Detroit?  Nova Scotia?  Ripped up shredded mess out underneath us?  Are those better?

2.  The pattern on multiple models has been developing the most favorable pattern we have seen in many years.  Do you expect there to NOT be a storm right where you want given the GEFS/EPS/GEM depictions of late?  We generally accept the pattern features to be favorable, why not a storm?

3.  When is BAD to see a snowstorm depicted?  I say never.  

4. MANY times storms of biggie magnitude are picked up at these time frames.  '93 is an example when models were limited.  Boxing day was coming into focus.  It faded in the middle cycles, but the longer-range depictions were correct.  

Again: Men and Women:

 

Agreed. But I think must of us are trying to temper expectations a bit, being a week out. But to your point I like very much what I see, as it fits the pattern very well. So yes, I’m glad we’re here. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

LOL @ the 2nd snowstorm a few days later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That run of the GFS phases the ULL that is over se Canada, into the coastal...that is how to resolve the issue without bodily moving the trough 150-200 miles east.

[Ginx snewx]

We get at least one of these runs a year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

We get at least one of these runs a year. 

Right out of the Jan 2011 playbook.

[MuddyWx]

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Hold up - All these posts about 'too bad it's hour 200, 'you don't want to be in the jackpot this far out...etc.'

I say BS for the following reasons:

1. Where would you rather be right now?  Low cutting up into Detroit?  Nova Scotia?  Ripped up shredded mess out underneath us?  Are those better?

2.  The pattern on multiple models has been developing the most favorable pattern we have seen in many years.  Do you expect there to NOT be a storm right where you want given the GEFS/EPS/GEM depictions of late?  We generally accept the pattern features to be favorable, why not a storm?

3.  When is it BAD to see a snowstorm depicted?  I say never.  

4. MANY times storms of biggie magnitude are picked up at these time frames.  '93 is an example when models were limited.  Boxing day was coming into focus.  It faded in the middle cycles, but the longer-range depictions were correct.  

Again: Men and Women:

 

Ready to run through a brick wall

[Mr. Windcredible!]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

We get at least one of these runs a year. 

 

One every couple of days if you use the CMC

[cleetussnow]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed. But I think must of us are trying to temper expectations a bit, being a week out. But to your point I like very much what I see, as it fits the pattern very well. So yes, I’m glad we’re here. 

We are here to win it!

Just now, MuddyWx said:

Ready to run through a brick wall

Damn right we are!