Dec 13-16th Winter Storm

[Chicago Storm]

While Minnesota/Duluth/Bo-land were always expected to experience something significant, odds have been increasing for more of Wisconsin to have a shot at something meaningful now as well. Another wave rounds the main trough, with secondary development Wed/Thur. Something to watch for the Southern Wisconsin crowd (Maybe even IL/WI border area?).

Outside of that, other areas could pick up some snow showers and minor accumulation with wrap around activity on Thur/Fri.

[Sciascia]

GFS has been showing a flash mob of snow around midnight Thursday dropping 3-4 inches in just a few hours around Boone/other IL/WI border counties. Is that a realistic scenario?

[hardypalmguy]

While Duluth/Bo-land were always expected to experience something significant, odds have been increasing for more of Wisconsin to have a shot at something meaningful now as well. Another wave rounds the trough, with secondary development Wed/Thur. Something to watch for the Southern Wisconsin crowd (Maybe even IL/WI border area?).
Outside of that, other areas could pick up some snow showers and minor accumulation with wrap around activity on Thur/Fri.

Bust

[Chicago Storm]

43 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Bust

tth.

[Nelson]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Bust

Why do you post here?

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Couple of pingers otherwise rain.

[RogueWaves]

Excited for Wisco (you decide if Sarc or serious)

[Geoboy645]

So uhh how about that NAM run? Most of the state gets 6"+ except for ...Green Bay and the Lakeshore... Right where I'm at. Yay... At least it'll be a good snowpack at home before the deep freeze.

[cyclone77]

Definitely gonna rip up in WI when that wave kicks up there.  Should be some nice rates.

[RCNYILWX]

GFS has been showing a flash mob of snow around midnight Thursday dropping 3-4 inches in just a few hours around Boone/other IL/WI border counties. Is that a realistic scenario?

it's definitely more precarious south of the state line but trending to a realistic scenario for the northern tier. The coldest solutions are even bringing a thump of snow down to a bit south of I-88. Because of the extreme negative tilt of the system, cold advection comes in from the west and the timing of that plus dynamic cooling of the column before the dry slot quickly lifts north and cuts off the heavy precip. Also, the above reason suggests farther inland in northern Illinois would be more favored.

The 00z NAM12 and to a bit lesser extent the 3km, basically maxes out the potential in northern Illinois with an earlier and farther south flip. It has support for very heavy snow rates with steep lapse rates through the DGZ (and even some small mucape), impressive omega well aligned with the DGZ, high PWATs and mixing ratios, and a deep isothermal layer at around -8C favorable for aggregates.

Given that there is more than just NAM support for a flip to heavy wet snow into northern Illinois, it's becoming more likely but a lot still has to go right to get more than just 1-3" in the far north. That said, it's quite a dynamic setup and generally trending more so, so there could be some surprises in store. The rest of the 00z suite should be interesting.

Def looks good for a big chunk of Wisconsin and western lower MI in line for high winds (3km NAM and HRRR showing 60-70 mph gusts over central LM and onto the MI shore.)

[CheeselandSkies]

MKX surely does not have Madison getting a foot by 06Z Friday.

Quote

However as we push into Wednesday evening there is an increasing
concern for cooler air sliding in with the next slug of precip
coming up from the south from the warm front. This would lead to
increased snowfall across the northern part of the CWA through the
evening and overnight as the system slides out. We will need
increased attention for this period as it may suggest the potential
for a few quick inches of snow across parts of the northern CWA.
This however will be extremely dependent on the temperatures at the
surface as well as how heavy precip is by the time we reach cold
enough temperatures for snow to really accumulate. Overall QPF looks
to be around an inch to an inch and three quarters with the highest
amounts to the north and east, primarily associated with that second
slug of moisture coming through Wednesday evening/night that would
include more snow. A good chunk of that may become a wet snow for
parts of the northern CWA. The increasing concern for a period of
heavy wet snow may bring enough concern to warrant a Winter Weather
Advisory, though there still remains too much uncertainty in
temperatures at this point.

With as much water as we are expected to get we could some minor
flooding concerns though rivers are expected to remain below minor
flooding across the CWA with only a few rivers expected to reach
action stage. The other minor concern is for large onshore waves
in the nearshore which will make for treacherous conditions and
eve potential for damage along the nearshore from waves though
onshore flooding is not a concern because water levels are not
high enough at this time.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 200 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022)

Thursday through Tuesday:

The midweek system will continue to linger over the region
through the end of the week bringing continued precip chances and
much colder temps to southern WI through the weekend.

Models continue to show the mid-level cutoff low with heights
below 530dm meandering across the upper Midwest and eventually
lifting overhead through the day Thursday before pushing northeast
by Friday. Overnight precip into early Thursday morning with the
rain transitioning to snow especially across our northern
counties in the CWA and wintry mix further south looks to lift
out later Thursday morning and there may be brief lull in precip
activity with the dry slot moving through across southern WI.
However, there continues to be lingering moisture on the back side
of the system associated with the CAA. This may result in more
convectively driven off and on snow showers developing through the
day Thursday and linger into Friday. Some minor additional snowfall
accumulations will be possible, but are expected to generally
remain below an inch. However, cannot rule out some of this
activity to bring pockets of locally higher amounts and reduced
visibility along with travel impacts.

 

[Brian D]

Totals jacked up this aftrn since the early morning forecast, and ice a factor for some, too. Winds have picked up to gusts of 40mph with the first batch of heavy snow on the doorstep. Let it rock!

[Brian D]

Temps are currently running 31-34 in the area. 34 here in town. Precip is mixed at the moment. Can hear the pinging on the windows. Ice forming on the deck, and sidewalks.

[Pascy619]

 

[madwx]

yeah, we're going to get some heavy snow overnight tomorrow night.  should be interesting to see how the morning commute compares to last Friday

[Geoboy645]

1 minute ago, madwx said:

yeah, we're going to get some heavy snow overnight tomorrow night.  should be interesting to see how the morning commute compares to last Friday

Probably pretty bad as well. The warm part tomorrow is supposed to drop about an inch of rain which means the roads will be pretty frozen when the changeover happens. We also should have a decent amount of wind with this as well. Thursday morning's commute is going to suck.

[Sciascia]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

it's definitely more precarious south of the state line but trending to a realistic scenario for the northern tier. The coldest solutions are even bringing a thump of snow down to a bit south of I-88. Because of the extreme negative tilt of the system, cold advection comes in from the west and the timing of that plus dynamic cooling of the column before the dry slot quickly lifts north and cuts off the heavy precip. Also, the above reason suggests farther inland in northern Illinois would be more favored.

The 00z NAM12 and to a bit lesser extent the 3km, basically maxes out the potential in northern Illinois with an earlier and farther south flip. It has support for very heavy snow rates with steep lapse rates through the DGZ (and even some small mucape), impressive omega well aligned with the DGZ, high PWATs and mixing ratios, and a deep isothermal layer at around -8C favorable for aggregates.

Given that there is more than just NAM support for a flip to heavy wet snow into northern Illinois, it's becoming more likely but a lot still has to go right to get more than just 1-3" in the far north. That said, it's quite a dynamic setup and generally trending more so, so there could be some surprises in store. The rest of the 00z suite should be interesting.

Def looks good for a big chunk of Wisconsin and western lower MI in line for high winds (3km NAM and HRRR showing 60-70 mph gusts over central LM and onto the MI shore.)

 

I thank you & appreciate your detailed answer. I’m about 15 minutes south of the IL/WI border in Poplar Grove, so I always have to keep an eye on the state line events.

[Brian D]

All snow now. A little sheen of ice underneath to make travel treacherous.

[cyclone77]

Right at 1" for this system now.  Looks like a decent amount left to come.

May get a brief period of wet snow tomorrow night before the dry slot bulges in.

[hardypalmguy]

10 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

So uhh how about that NAM run? Most of the state gets 6"+ except for ...Green Bay and the Lakeshore... Right where I'm at. Yay... At least it'll be a good snowpack at home before the deep freeze.

another rainer for the lake counties.  thank goodness for lake michigan in early winter.

[hardypalmguy]

8 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

Probably pretty bad as well. The warm part tomorrow is supposed to drop about an inch of rain which means the roads will be pretty frozen when the changeover happens. We also should have a decent amount of wind with this as well. Thursday morning's commute is going to suck.

I always hear people seeing flash freeze when it rains and then cools off in the winter.  But I've never seen it myself.  The precip shuts off, the roads dry off and it never happens.  Outside of real freezing rain, there are never those ice covered roads for miles everyone talks about.

[Chicago Storm]

Still looks like a close call for the IL/WI border area, very dependent on dynamic cooling.

Much of WI still set to do decently, though.

[kevlon62]

Still looks like a close call for the IL/WI border area, very dependent on dynamic cooling still.

[hardypalmguy]

27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Still looks like a close call for the IL/WI border area, very dependent on dynamic cooling still.

Much of WI still set to do decently, though.

it's been so cold man.  haven't been below freezing in 10 days.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)

                                          STATION:   MILWAUKEE  WI
                                          MONTH:     DECEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2022
                                          LATITUDE:   42 57 N      
                                          LONGITUDE:  87 54 W    

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND 
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  38  19  29  -5  36   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.2 18 190   M    M   5        28 190
 2  52  33  43   9  22   0    T  0.0    0 12.5 22 190   M    M   9        32 200
 3  50  21  36   3  29   0    T    T    0 15.3 32 290   M    M   3        46 290
 4  39  22  31  -2  34   0 0.00  0.0    0 11.3 17 250   M    M   1        28 230
 5  43  32  38   5  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.4 17 220   M    M   9        24 220
 6  42  37  40   8  25   0 0.01  0.0    0  5.7 14  70   M    M  10 18     20  40
 7  41  35  38   6  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.5 13 340   M    M  10 128    23 290
 8  40  35  38   6  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.8 15  80   M    M  10        21  90
 9  40  35  38   7  27   0 0.50  1.9    0 16.2 24 110   M    M  10 18     32 100
10  40  37  39   8  26   0 0.06  0.0    T  7.9 17 120   M    M  10 18     20 120
11  42  37  40   9  25   0    T  0.0    0  6.9 12 280   M    M  10        18 280
12  41  37  39   9  26   0 0.01    T    0  9.6 17 120   M    M  10 8      22 120
13  39  38  39   9  26   0 0.03  0.0    0 17.1 29 120   M    M  10        39 110

 

[Chicago Storm]

it's been so cold man.  haven't been below freezing in 10 days.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)                                          STATION:   MILWAUKEE  WI                                          MONTH:     DECEMBER                                          YEAR:      2022                                          LATITUDE:   42 57 N                                                LONGITUDE:  87 54 W      TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND ================================================================================1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MINDY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR================================================================================ 1  38  19  29  -5  36   0 0.00  0.0    0 10.2 18 190   M    M   5        28 190 2  52  33  43   9  22   0    T  0.0    0 12.5 22 190   M    M   9        32 200 3  50  21  36   3  29   0    T    T    0 15.3 32 290   M    M   3        46 290 4  39  22  31  -2  34   0 0.00  0.0    0 11.3 17 250   M    M   1        28 230 5  43  32  38   5  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.4 17 220   M    M   9        24 220 6  42  37  40   8  25   0 0.01  0.0    0  5.7 14  70   M    M  10 18     20  40 7  41  35  38   6  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.5 13 340   M    M  10 128    23 290 8  40  35  38   6  27   0 0.00  0.0    0  9.8 15  80   M    M  10        21  90 9  40  35  38   7  27   0 0.50  1.9    0 16.2 24 110   M    M  10 18     32 10010  40  37  39   8  26   0 0.06  0.0    T  7.9 17 120   M    M  10 18     20 12011  42  37  40   9  25   0    T  0.0    0  6.9 12 280   M    M  10        18 28012  41  37  39   9  26   0 0.01    T    0  9.6 17 120   M    M  10 8      22 12013  39  38  39   9  26   0 0.03  0.0    0 17.1 29 120   M    M  10        39 110

 

congrats on the move to mke.

didn’t catch you as a city guy.


.

[SchaumburgStormer]

33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Still looks like a close call for the IL/WI border area, very dependent on dynamic cooling still.

Much of WI still set to do decently, though.

Which underperformed slightly on the most recent snow "storm" for the northern counties. 

[Chicago Storm]

10 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Which underperformed slightly on the most recent snow "storm" for the northern counties. 

Depends what forecast you were following.

In this case it is a different setup overall. The last event featured WAA for the duration of the event, while with this event there will be some CAA. In any case, it will be a situation where the closer to the border you are, the better the chance.

Not expecting any snow in the metro at this point.

[hawkeye_wx]

I only received 0.56" of light rain and drizzle from this system, at the very bottom of the model range.  Tonight's strong wave will miss to the east.  Some light backwash snow should whiten the ground a bit later Thursday.

[A-L-E-K]

 

[hardypalmguy]

Man look at the rain along the lake!!!