Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

In thy knicker days, maybe this would be snow inside 495. 

We've also pulled many events out of our arses too. Eventually luck runs out. 

Yea, it would suck if my luck ran out. Wouldn't want that

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it would suck if my luck ran out. Wouldn't want that

Well my comment was meant for him. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well my comment was meant for him. 

He is due for hell to pay.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He is due for hell to pay.

We both are, but at least I know and understand it's coming. 

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We both are, but at least I know and understand it's coming. 

4 straight below average seasons (or near average on the last) so the clock has already started on the regression, for a lot of us. 

At this point, we just hope for a biggie mixed in with the sea of meh

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie def came SE some....still torching the low levels (what else is new for Ukie), but I like those ML tracks much better than 00z....850 going over the canal region now instead of over ORH at 00z.

[Colonel Badger]

So are we seeing a trend here, with the 12z models moving SE?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Colonel Badger said:

So are we seeing a trend here, with the 12z models moving SE?

I think that is certainly clear…

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie def came SE some....still torching the low levels (what else is new for Ukie), but I like those ML tracks much better than 00z....850 going over the canal region now instead of over ORH at 00z.

Will why is 925 like 40 miles North at 18z Friday on 12z run when that run has a much better mid level track shown . It’s primarily that 16z to 21z period 

[weatherwiz]

I guess where the secondary develops and where cyclogeneis gets going will play more of a significant roll in this, but that high to the northeast is so large and strong...its just hard to see warmer air bleeding too far into the interior. Again, an earlier developing secondary and strengthening one establishing the southerly flow ahead of it probably would override but I even think BDL is going to get a crushing from this. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

4 straight below average seasons (or near average on the last) so the clock has already started on the regression, for a lot of us. 

At this point, we just hope for a biggie mixed in with the sea of meh

The Cape has had it rougher too. 

[CoastalWx]

GEFS moved SE quite a bit too.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will why is 925 like 40 miles North at 18z Friday on 12z run when that run has a much better mid level track shown 

I have no idea....Ukie always just absolutely furnaces the low levels, so I don't really try and parse it outside of the synoptic tracks. Might have to do with how strong the lift is on the model at any given time, but usually I just completely toss the Ukie thermals and try and look at the track of systems on there if ptype issues are an issue with the storm.

[MRVexpat]

Any threat of a NW based deform band in this one? If not, what are the typical ingredients to make this happen?

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS moved SE quite a bit too.

I like seeing that. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

Any threat of a NW based deform band in this one? If not, what are the typical ingredients to make this happen?

Deepening and closed mid level lows at 500 or at least 700 height . 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

52 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Well, here is hoping the GFS is correct....Almost all snow here, maybe 5-10"? I would assume during light precip we would flip to some drizzle or light rain....hoping for a bit more in dynamics and we could easily see more. Hopefully not a 33-35 degree rain event. 

That looks like a weak 2-5” clown map that would result in mostly slop unless we can crank the dynamics. 

[CT Rain]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS moved SE quite a bit too.

My worry with that is they're just weaker which isn't really great either. Not sure the op GFS would get it done with a weaker and more strung out system. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That looks like a weak 2-5” clown map that would result in mostly slop unless we can crank the dynamics. 

Sloppy seconds to those with bigger totals Nw of you is usually not great but sometimes it depends how big of a weenie you...are 

but ya that’s why it’s a Berks /NW CT storm if everything SE is just weaker 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

My worry with that is they're just weaker which isn't really great either. Not sure the op GFS would get it done with a weaker and more strung out system. 

I agree. The further SE solutions are weaker it seems. I guess it may be better for those in the ORH-TOL area or so. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/major-long-duration-winter-storm-likely.html

 

Final on Thursday-

[Damage In Tolland]

I think the SE trends matter for this area even if weaker storm.. Not for big snow amounts, just longer duration snow on front and backside between any mix / rain 

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I agree. The further SE solutions are weaker it seems. I guess it may be better for those in the ORH-TOL area or so. 

Will be an interesting event for sure. Something a bit more dynamic with that op GFS track would be fun. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think the SE trends matter for this area even if weaker storm.. Not for big snow amounts, just longer duration snow on front and backside between any mix / rain 

Yea. It matters for a more festive event with snow falling, or mixing in and out, instead of pounding 34F rains. It may not accumulate to a whole lot here but…it could be worse.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Will be an interesting event for sure. Something a bit more dynamic with that op GFS track would be fun. 

Still have 3 days to go…maybe things trend a bit more dynamic kind of like the NAM had. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Still have 3 days to go…maybe things trend a bit more dynamic kind of like the NAM had. 

Yeah it can't go too crazy given the upper level setup. Not like we're getting a crazy bomb that's closing off at 500mb. It's sort of a SWFE with some redevelopment off the coast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Sloppy seconds to those with bigger totals Nw of you is usually not great but sometimes it depends how big of a weenie you...are 

but ya that’s why it’s a Berks /NW CT storm if everything SE is just weaker 

Huge weenie here but I prefer to bypass sloppy seconds…unless there are no other alternatives. Close thy eyes and enjoy it.

[MRVexpat]

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Deepening and closed mid level lows at 500 or at least 700 height . 

Thnx

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. It matters for a more festive event with snow falling, or mixing in and out, instead of pounding 34F rains. It may not accumulate to a whole lot here but…it could be worse.

These types of storms love that area of W CT. Far removed from marine taint.. enough elevation to accumulate.. My gut says you do fairly well 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah it can't go too crazy given the upper level setup. Not like we're getting a crazy bomb that's closing off at 500mb. It's sort of a SWFE with some redevelopment off the coast.

At this point, I'm hoping that next week has a bit more potential to be snow than this mixed to rain event. Looks like there's a couple of opportunities mid next week Christmas itself. Although, hoping not Christmas Eve. We shall see