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Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday


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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That's close to a pounding for the valley too around here. 

What do you think the valley needs to maximize potential? Is the key factor getting a further SE mid level low pass to allow for more cold in the column or is it getting slightly less easterly flow?

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully Xmas isn't ruined snowwise...first holiday season that my oldest knows what is going on and I expected some snow. This is why I melted yesterday...not because I think the season is ruined or anything.

Sucks.

Absolute cannot catch a break

Hopefully the next one works out. 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will does the 6z eps have 925 line past hour 90

I don't have the ability to see 925 on the EPS....but my guess is it probably is north of ORH by 90h....EPS is still pretty amped up, even if less than 00z. I think we'd want it about 30-50 miles SE of there to feel good in places like ORH to maybe the smaller hills just W of 495 up by Groton/Shirley/Ayer

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might help being on the western side? I feel like any longitude helps. Hopefully you guys can grab some.

Yeah you can see that on the model 2m temps... there's definitely a bit of longitude assist there.

I think Litchfield Hills and Berkshires will do very well being a bit farther west plus some upslope assist/cooling. 

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7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah you can see that on the model 2m temps... there's definitely a bit of longitude assist there.

I think Litchfield Hills and Berkshires will do very well being a bit farther west plus some upslope assist/cooling. 

I looked at 950 on weathernerds..just like seeing a horizontal projection, and you can see that even lower spots were just below 0C at that level. 

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RGEM looked almost exactly like 06z....which was like 1C too warm for ORH hills except maybe up by NH border....Berkshires did ok on that run. ICON was also almost a carbon copy of 06z. So NAM is really the only one that moved in significant fashion so far at 12z.

The NAM's move is almost certainly related to the ULL being compressed a bit E/W vs the 06z run.

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully Xmas isn't ruined snowwise...first holiday season that my oldest knows what is going on and I expected some snow. This is why I melted yesterday...not because I think the season is ruined or anything.

Sucks.

Absolute cannot catch a break

the kid needs to learn about Christmas disappointment at an early age.

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Once the (initialization) on guidance digests the developing +NAO the marginal areas east of the CT river will be cooked.

The bulk of the surface cold is to our west; not to our north, which naturally means a "backing" west occlusion. So once the UL confluence ebbs it will be "not even close" for us eastern folks.

Good storm for the berks, Greens, and upstate NY though.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Once the (initialization) on guidance digests the developing +NAO the marginal areas east of the CT river will be cooked.

The bulk of the surface cold is to our west; not to our north, which naturally means a "backing" west occlusion. So once the UL confluence ebbs it will be "not even close" for us eastern folks.

Good storm for the berks, Greens, and upstate NY though.

50F rain for Dover?

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Once the (initialization) on guidance digests the developing +NAO the marginal areas east of the CT river will be cooked.

The bulk of the surface cold is to our west; not to our north, which naturally means a "backing" west occlusion. So once the UL confluence ebbs it will be "not even close" for us eastern folks.

Good storm for the berks, Greens, and upstate NY though.

The NAO is negative, not that it changes anything. The block recedes just enough to allow the primary to last into the Great Lakes, which not only advects mid level warmth more aggressively, but allows the secondary SLP to hug the coast more closely, which cooks the coastal plane with onshore flow.

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Once the (initialization) on guidance digests the developing +NAO the marginal areas east of the CT river will be cooked.

The bulk of the surface cold is to our west; not to our north, which naturally means a "backing" west occlusion. So once the UL confluence ebbs it will be "not even close" for us eastern folks.

Good storm for the berks, Greens, and upstate NY though.

Love that +NAO at -1.5SD

B8EC7FFF-CA9C-4039-8CF6-C01FA4E8CB44.png

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't have the ability to see 925 on the EPS....but my guess is it probably is north of ORH by 90h....EPS is still pretty amped up, even if less than 00z. I think we'd want it about 30-50 miles SE of there to feel good in places like ORH to maybe the smaller hills just W of 495 up by Groton/Shirley/Ayer

This is hr81

63989b82e930a.png

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26 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Why didn't you go with an interlock kit?

I could have, But still would have needed to run wire to the switch outdoors, I have 100 amp service with about 6 circuits open so i just added the 10 circuit sub panel with line-off-gen switches, The only thing it wont power is the dryer and stove which i really don't need, Besides, I'll have to train the wife in case i'm up north riding when we lose it........:yikes:

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29 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Once the (initialization) on guidance digests the developing +NAO the marginal areas east of the CT river will be cooked.

The bulk of the surface cold is to our west; not to our north, which naturally means a "backing" west occlusion. So once the UL confluence ebbs it will be "not even close" for us eastern folks.

Good storm for the berks, Greens, and upstate NY though.

How much blood of Christ this morning?

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