WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 41 minutes ago, dryslot said: There's plenty of others chances coming down the road even if this doesn't work out up here, I'm not concerned with the look of the hemispheric pattern going forward. He’s crying like a whimpering lil school girl…saying close the shades when the pattern going into a climatological favorable time looks very nice. Whiners gonna whine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 06z euro came in a bit better for interior elevations. Prob some decent now for N ORH county that run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 EPS came SE a bit too…these types of shifts don’t really matter for places like BOS but they do for ORH up into SW NH and perhaps even down to places like Kevin..esp if they continue another tick or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z euro came in a bit better for interior elevations. Prob some decent now for N ORH county that run. Euro starting to creep east…a creep here and there over the next 3-4 days could change things for those on the fence. But if not, no biggy, more chances coming. Pattern looks nice with shots at storms. We take and appreciate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 06z GFS gave Kev like an inch, tops...it was mainly good for N ORH co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS came SE a bit too…these types of shifts don’t really matter for places like BOS but they do for ORH up into SW NH and perhaps even down to places like Kevin..esp if they continue another tick or two Thanks for the visual 6z eps clearly did move nicely for Western folks and N orh county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS came SE a bit too…these types of shifts don’t really matter for places like BOS but they do for ORH up into SW NH and perhaps even down to places like Kevin..esp if they continue another tick or two MLK 2010? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thanks for the visual 6z eps clearly did move nicely for Western folks and N orh county See those members that string out from like S of LI toward ACK.....if we can get those to be closer to reality, then I think ti would be game-on for ORH back into Berks and maybe even parts of 495 belt down to Kevin.....though I think those peeps would want an extra half-tick beyond that. But east-facing slopes are the place to watch on this because they will get some extra orographic assist for cooling that 900-975mb layer. I've seen it many times where it looks like it could be 37F catpaws but they slam 32-33 parachutes (think Dec 5, 2020 as one example with an even more putrid airmass than this one)....the track is still key though. In that 12/5/20 event, the track was ideal. We just had an awful airmass. In this one, the airmass is a little better but the track is still hugging a bit too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: MLK 2010? Lol....maybe....or 2nd Dec '96 storm. The synoptic setup is actually not terribly different from that storm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us1208.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Lol....maybe....or 2nd Dec '96 storm. The synoptic setup is actually not terribly different from that storm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us1208.php I knew we would get one like that this month...lets get it out of the way now, while there is till time to recover prior to Xmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I was getting ready for work when the 06z EPS came out and it did move SE a few tics, That's pretty helpful for coastal peeps up this way as well as some in Central MA/CT. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Euro starting to creep east…a creep here and there over the next 3-4 days could change things for those on the fence. But if not, no biggy, more chances coming. Pattern looks nice with shots at storms. We take and appreciate. We pray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Hopefully it trends a bit more for Kev.....but I am completely uninvested as far as MBY...let that go on Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: MLK 2010? That wasn’t a strong wound up coastal though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That wasn’t a strong wound up coastal though This isn’t that strong either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol....maybe....or 2nd Dec '96 storm. The synoptic setup is actually not terribly different from that storm http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1996/us1208.php Was that one all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: This isn’t that strong either I was about to post that....part of the reason why we can't get the snow deeper onto the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Does this bear any resemblance to the early Oct . 87 storm that buried ALB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was that one all rain? No, it was just an interior event 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS came SE a bit too…these types of shifts don’t really matter for places like BOS but they do for ORH up into SW NH and perhaps even down to places like Kevin..esp if they continue another tick or two Will, thanks for sharing. What is the SE jog a function of? Is it related to the relaxed ridge downstream or the parent low weakening and/or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: I was getting ready for work when the 06z EPS came out and it did move SE a few tics, That's pretty helpful for coastal peeps up this way as well as some in Central MA/CT. Still a ton of work to do here so I'm pretty much just standing near the train door to see if I want to jump on or not. Given the track/temps and fact that the easterly flow would just shadow the heck out of me I'd see any measurable over an inch as a win. Get on the board (again) and move on to the next one is my perspective here. NW CT may get smoked though. That's been fairly consistent on guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 for those of us teetering on the line these little ticks E/SE are great to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, DJln491 said: for those of us teetering on the line these little ticks E/SE are great to see. I think you'll need elevation though. Gonna be tough in the valley I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does this bear any resemblance to the early Oct . 87 storm that buried ALB? I grew up out that way and was there for that event. School was closed for a week. One of the best storms of my days of youth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think you'll need elevation though. Gonna be tough in the valley I think. Agree. Extremely low bar imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully it trends a bit more for Kev.....but I am completely uninvested as far as MBY...let that go on Sunday. What do you think for out this way? My early call is 3-5" with a change to rain for most of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: What do you think for out this way? My early call is 3-5" with a change to rain for most of the event Working on that now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: I grew up out that way and was there for that event. School was closed for a week. One of the best storms of my days of youth. The migrant workers in Albany area thought it was some sort of a curse and omen ..not joking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What do you think for out this way? My early call is 3-5" with a change to rain for most of the event You are at the mercy of those ticks . 2 to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 For those inland, just place this song while the NAM rolls out. Say it with me: To the east my brother to the east... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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