ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The Berkshires are going to get destroyed. Essentially the Berkshires is the rest of the NHL and this storm is the Bruins. Wish you could easily animate this but a single-frame will have to do but it's just consistent intense lift...plus when you factor in an upslope flow. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few 18-24'' totals there Beast is going to get a 20 burger I bet....great spot in northern Berks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Pete will probably get a 2'er on easterly flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I would. Euro was taking this over like ORH on some runs a few days back. Lol. If this ends up over ACK or CHH like most guidance has, that’s a pretty bad cave by euro vs gfs. GFS was def too far SE but I think it wins this one 60/40 or 70/30. But we’re not at verification yet. Euro may win if we’re measuring from like 60-72 hours out but I was measuring from like D4-5. Looking for advice: My wife is having her sister and father come down tonight from Sunapee so they can leave for Hadley Mass tomorrow around 4PM. We live out in the Mason/Greenville area just north of Ashby at around 800ft elevation. What weather should I expect at that time? Trying to determine if this is a good idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Beast is going to get a 20 burger I bet....great spot in northern Berks. would not be shocked, and it looks like back to back with next week... they just all pulled off an 8-10er this past Sunday, good Berk winter of yore, actually lived in Pittsfield until I was like 4, have some vague memories of piles of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Beast is going to get a 20 burger I bet....great spot in northern Berks. This is a fantastic spot for the Berkshires. Not so great just west of them in the Hudson Valley lol. One thing to really watch is the decaying CCB...some signals this could continue to ail the Berkshires well into Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Even at 7-8:1 ratios, That's a healthy dumping on the 12z HRRR in the areas that stay snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, masonwoods said: Looking for advice: My wife is having her sister and father come down tonight from Sunapee so they can leave for Hadley Mass tomorrow around 4PM. We live out in the Mason/Greenville area just north of Ashby at around 800ft elevation. What weather should I expect at that time? Trying to determine if this is a good idea. Oh man, that is close to a pounding there...but even if it isn't, the drive to Hadley from there takes you across Rt 2 in MA, right? I'd have to imagine it's not going to be the easiest travel in those spots around Gardner/Winchendon. Only saving grace is the heaviest precip might be before that...so perhaps 4pm isn't quite as bad as it would be around midday or sometime in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Wapack range walloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Still so many questions in the marginal areas. Just trying to think of any similar setups like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Wapack range walloper. There was this weenie property around 1400 feet in Ashburnham I used to always want when driving up there.....it was pretty close to Mt Watatic....I'd love to be camped out there tomorrow, lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm still not sure whether I will get much snow. Will, what are some similar set ups and how did I fare? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Even at 7-8:1 ratios, That's a healthy dumping on the 12z HRRR in the areas that stay snow. I've been morbidly impressed with how consistently these solutions have placed PWM right on the cutoff line despite other fluctuations. This could be excruciating. Glad to see the mountains getting buried either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 One thing that makes me nervous (especially with my forecast for northern Connecticut) in the thump zones is the majority of the stronger lift is well above the DGZ. With a marginal profile (well boundary layer), even with the more intense lift it could be difficult to get much snow. Could be dealing with crappy flakes size and horrific ratios. Have to check some bufkit soundings a bit more in-depth but I would imaging ratios could be as bad as like 6:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, PWMan said: I've been morbidly impressed with how consistently these solutions have placed PWM right on the cutoff line despite other fluctuations. This could be excruciating. Glad to see the mountains getting buried either way. Your areas is certainly on the fence, You could either get a good surprise, Or you could get porked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There was this weenie property around 1400 feet in Ashburnham I used to always want when driving up there.....it was pretty close to Mt Watatic....I'd love to be camped out there tomorrow, lol. my girlfriends mom lives at 1400 in Ashburnham near mount Watatic lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Even at 7-8:1 ratios, That's a healthy dumping on the 12z HRRR in the areas that stay snow. Healthy dumps are a morning ritual. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: One thing that makes me nervous (especially with my forecast for northern Connecticut) in the thump zones is the majority of the stronger lift is well above the DGZ. With a marginal profile (well boundary layer), even with the more intense lift it could be difficult to get much snow. Could be dealing with crappy flakes size and horrific ratios. Have to check some bufkit soundings a bit more in-depth but I would imaging ratios could be as bad as like 6:1 You def want a cross hair sig to maximize any latent cooling potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Healthy dumps are a morning ritual. After coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: you posted it in relation to this storm and overnite model runs , no ? It earned the nickname dr no a long time ago I mean in general. The model has lost a lot of its ability imo. I realize the Dr No saying..wasn’t meaning that. It used to lock on to stuff once in its wheel house, and you could pretty much take it to the bank most times(there would always be an exception here or there), now it’s all over the place. I think that much is very evident. That’s my point. You don’t have to agree, but it ain’t what it used to be. Not by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Your areas is certainly on the fence, You could either get a good surprise, Or you could get porked. Comes with the territory, especially this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 NAM looks a bit warmer than 06z at 27h....a little cooler than the 00z run. (looking at 925) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You def want a cross hair sig to maximize any latent cooling potential. At least with 18z data yesterday it was tough to find that outside of southern Vermont down into the Berkshires and into extreme northwest Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, PWMan said: Comes with the territory, especially this time of year. Being on the water and as warm as it is this early in the season, You have to respect climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: One thing that makes me nervous (especially with my forecast for northern Connecticut) in the thump zones is the majority of the stronger lift is well above the DGZ. With a marginal profile (well boundary layer), even with the more intense lift it could be difficult to get much snow. Could be dealing with crappy flakes size and horrific ratios. Have to check some bufkit soundings a bit more in-depth but I would imaging ratios could be as bad as like 6:1 was thinking the same, looks better just north with the lift and DGZ, may be looking at hours of sugar here while they pile dendrites up to the kneecap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: At least with 18z data yesterday it was tough to find that outside of southern Vermont down into the Berkshires and into extreme northwest Connecticut. Check out the 3k early tomorrow....coming in pretty thumpy for CT....and looking at the soundings, you can see why. This is Tolland at 09z tomorrow...great cross hair sig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Check out the 3k early tomorrow....coming in pretty thumpy for CT....and looking at the soundings, you can see why. This is Tolland at 09z tomorrow...great cross hair sig Holy crap...that is a great sounding. Some of the soundings were showing potential for a pretty solid thump which lead to to think 2-4'' for northern half of Connecticut. I really hope that verifies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Holy crap...that is a great sounding. Some of the soundings were showing potential for a pretty solid thump which lead to to think 2-4'' for northern half of Connecticut. I really hope that verifies. Yeah its going to be all about the omega and how strong it is and where it lines up....you rip 30-50 microbars in the DGZ, then there are going to be some surprises. If you don't line it up and/or omega is weaker, then it's a cold rain for most outside the very highest spots in Berks/N ORH/Monads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Holy crap...that is a great sounding. Some of the soundings were showing potential for a pretty solid thump which lead to to think 2-4'' for northern half of Connecticut. I really hope that verifies. KDIT needs it, we’re concerned the beers are already being funneled down his esophagus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Colder hmm Why does a mid December clown nap look like a mid Morch clown map? Of F this seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: Why does a mid December clown nap look like a mid Morch clown map? Of F this seriously Maybe the hallucinating drugs is a contributor to that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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