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Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday


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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know and I’m trying to see why. But it’s stubborn so it’s keying on something. 
The only thing I can see (this is for 925) is that George’s bank buoy is 66F. 925 briefly comes from that direction. Maybe the source region is sort of overriding  what we typically expect for climo temps? Although that doesn’t totally explain surface temps with winds that are more ENE. That would keep lower level temps cooler.
 

Anyways just something I noticed. I guess we’ll see how 00z looks.

It’s just weird to see heavy precip falling with like -3 (or even colder early on) 850 temps and -1C 925 temps and virtually none of that translating down via latent cooling. It’s bizarre. I know euro eventually warms it at 925 quite a bit but early on it’s hanging just below 0C. But then it just rips to like +2 while 850 temps are still -2 or -3. Lol. 
 

Like i was thinking back to the last negative bust in a marginal storm for ORH hills and that was March 2, 2018…but the difference in that one was we were relying solely on dynamically cooling the atmosphere in the mid-levels and then translating it downward. We had temps in the 50s like 12 hours before it started, lol. It just never quite dynamically cooled enough until very late in the event. In this event, we already have cold in place prior to the storm…we’re not “waiting” for it. We’re trying to fight the low level WAA with dynamics and ageo flow but it doesn’t work at all in the euro runs. It’s that type of negative bust I can rarely ever recall. I’m honestly trying to think of one. 
 

Feb 22, 2009 maybe/sort of? But even that one dumped 6”+ in N ORH county…ORH itself was sloppier like 3” of glop…but that one had a sfc low going over our Fanny almost. 

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2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Most likely, probably...but it is worth watching. I've seen many times over many years in the area where we do better than expected.  However if the cutoff really ends up as sharp as the HRRR then we'll both be joy riding just west

Idk if we should take the vintage beetle, maybe one with awd for this trip :lol:

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1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

They're awesome in the snow, lots of fun! I have snows on my Vanagon so that could be a blast lol

The most fun vehicle I have driven in the snow is a big old Buick LeSabre. It was like driving a tank through the snow while sitting on a leather couch. FWD is all you need since it's so damn heavy.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s just weird to see heavy precip falling with like -3 (or even colder early on) 850 temps and -1C 925 temps and virtually none of that translating down via latent cooling. It’s bizarre. I know euro eventually warms it at 925 quite a bit but early on it’s hanging just below 0C. But then it just rips to like +2 while 850 temps are still -2 or -3. Lol. 
 

Like i was thinking back to the last negative bust in a marginal storm for ORH hills and that was March 2, 2018…but the difference in that one was we were relying solely on dynamically cooling the atmosphere in the mid-levels and then translating it downward. We had temps in the 50s like 12 hours before it started, lol. It just never quite dynamically cooled enough until very late in the event. In this event, we already have cold in place prior to the storm…we’re not “waiting” for it. We’re trying to fight the low level WAA with dynamics and ageo flow but it doesn’t work at all in the euro runs. It’s that type of negative bust I can rarely ever recall. I’m honestly trying to think of one. 
 

Feb 22, 2009 maybe/sort of? But even that one dumped 6”+ in N ORH county…ORH itself was sloppier like 3” of glop…but that one had a sfc low going over our Fanny almost. 

I also noticed the 6hr qpf progs never quite touch half inch QPF near ORH. I feel like I want to see more than that fall in 6 hrs to help suggest dynamics will come into play. 
Just trying to talk it through and see what’s going on because  yeah…..it’s a head scratcher with thermals. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I also noticed the 6hr qpf progs never quite touch half inch QPF near ORH. I feel like I want to see more than that fall in 6 hrs to help suggest dynamics will come into play. 
Just trying to talk it through and see what’s going on because  yeah…..it’s a head scratcher with thermals. 

Are any mesoscale models in range that suggest euro is off yet 

what were the 925’s /850’s in tHat march 2018 nor’easter when the airmass sucked day before and I drove out to hunter to get pasted as only the Berks In Sne got hit as 34 catpaws hit ORH, just as modeled 

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13 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Most likely, probably...but it is worth watching. I've seen many times over many years in the area where we do better than expected.  However if the cutoff really ends up as sharp as the HRRR then we'll both be joy riding just west

Will, Scooter would both probably admit there is still bust potential here. I just don't think the trend has been encouraging. But overnight runs will be the best of the best to follow. 

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Just now, TalcottWx said:

Will, Scooter would both probably admit there is still bust potential here. I just don't think the trend has been encouraging. But overnight runs will be the best of the best to follow. 

If only you lobbied for a place with respectable elevation last year , using all your tools of persuasion 

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9 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

The most fun vehicle I have driven in the snow is a big old Buick LeSabre. It was like driving a tank through the snow while sitting on a leather couch. FWD is all you need since it's so damn heavy.

I drove a 1997 red mercury villager to high school in 2010. Broke down in middle of rush hour in Seaport pushed to troop Barrick never started again. Later enshrined as best car in ha yearbook. The bang bus. 

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Are any mesoscale models in range that suggest euro is off yet 

what were the 925’s /850’s in tHat march 2018 nor’easter when the airmass sucked day before and I drove out to hunter to get pasted as only the Berks In Sne got hit as 34 catpaws hit ORH, just as modeled 

Oh that was the monster first nor’easter. God that was intense. Airmass May have been close. SSTs were cooler as they usually are in March. 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If only you lobbied for a place with respectable elevation last year , using all your tools of persuasion 

About 5 years ago I had friends, who are snow lovers, that had affordable options on two different houses.  One up in Heath at 1200’ and one in Shelburne at 800’.  
They were into Winter sports  and they knew that I was really into weather so we talked a bit about ideal locations. 
They ended up buying the house in Shelburne figuring a few hundred feet could not make that big of a difference. Probably a poor decision.  

 

 

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About 5 years ago I had friends, who are snow lovers, that had affordable options on two different houses.  One up in Heath at 1200’ and one in Shelburne at 800’.  
They were into Winter sports  and they knew that I was really into weather so we talked a bit about ideal locations. 
They ended up buying the house in Shelburne figuring a few hundred feet could not make that big of a difference. Probably a poor decision.  
 
 

Heath is approaching the outskirts of civilization (at least for Massachusetts)
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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

About 5 years ago I had friends, who are snow lovers, that had affordable options on two different houses.  One up in Heath at 1200’ and one in Shelburne at 800’.  
They were into Winter sports  and they knew that I was really into weather so we talked a bit about ideal locations. 
They ended up buying the house in Shelburne figuring a few hundred feet could not make that big of a difference. Probably a poor decision.  

 

 

 That stretch from Heath west out to Florida is a special area. And it's strange because Berkshire East doesn't seem to get it. 

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