Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday

[TalcottWx]

Realistically NW CT is gonna get smoked. Interior elevations. Will probably be right up there with berks. I'm thinking heavy wet snow and power line damage. Berks will get hit hard too. I doubt I only see c-1" here in Simsbury but I don't know my location well enough to say. You wanna be far enough away from that mid level center and SE NE. That more northerly wind direction for litchfield County, berks, s vt, SW NH, and portions of Northern MA near the border west of Winchester, Gardner should get smacked or at least do very well. I feel more confident than I do compared to KEVIN** despite his elevation advantage due to the fact banding will be better and more organized back this way I'd assume. He would be closer to that messy mid level low elongated crap that is modeleted to occur. That usually results in prolonged mixing, lower accums, patchy banding. So this is not entirely elevation dependant by any means in my opinion at least. Its variable according to your location in SNE. My main thought? Most of this forum is absolutely porked. If you aren't west of 91, North of 84 in CT, or NNE, close the shades. I'm really bummed to say that. I have a very low probability of some kind of mid level front crushing or slight track change in short term. Its not out of the question, but it is not likely to change either. There is still a ton of anticipation either way for me. Exciting to have things up in the air. We snow (kinda) 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I wouldn't expect much where you are. Not a great location for an event like this. A 5 minute drive to North Canton will get you in the goods though!

That’s the same where I am. I can literally drive five minutes and be at 1000’ in Colrain.  
It’s maddening sometimes but I like my house and its proximity to downtown Greenfield so we happy. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Realistically NW CT is gonna get smoked. Interior elevations. Will probably be right up there with berks. I'm thinking heavy wet snow and power line damage. Berks will get hit hard too. I doubt I only see c-1" here in Simsbury but I don't know my location well enough to say. You wanna be far enough away from that mid level center and SE NE. That more northerly wind direction for litchfield County, berks, s vt, SW NH, and portions of Northern MA near the border west of Winchester, Gardner should get smacked or at least do very well. I feel more confident than I do compared to Ray despite his elevation advantage due to the fact banding will be better and more organized back this way I'd assume. He would be closer to that messy mid level low elongated crap that is modeleted to occur. That usually results in prolonged mixing, lower accums, patchy banding. So this is not entirely elevation dependant by any means in my opinion at least. Its variable according to your location in SNE. My main thought? Most of this forum is absolutely porked. If you aren't west of 91, North of 84 in CT, or NNE, close the shades. I'm really bummed to say that. I have a very low probability of some kind of mid level front crushing or slight track change in short term. Its not out of the question, but it is not likely to change either. There is still a ton of anticipation either way for me. Exciting to have things up in the air. We snow (kinda) 

Tip, is that you? 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

For here

 

Thursday Night

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 33. East wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday

Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 11am. Patchy fog. High near 37. East wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Friday Night

Rain, possibly mixed with snow and freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of snow and freezing rain between 3am and 4am, then snow after 4am. Patchy fog. Low around 30. Northeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. West wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

I might be wrong but I’m really struggling to find an excuse to forecast 1-3/2-4” for 1000+ feet up by rt 2. I suppose if we believe model guidance that has 925 in the 0C to -1C range but sfc temps of 37? I’m not sure who would believe that though. That just doesn’t happen in elevated areas there. It almost always fails…which is why I always used 925 as my benchmark when forecasting for high terrain. 
 

I guess if you took the Euro verbatim it would struggle there but it’s the warm outlier at the moment in the 925 level…and even on the euro, it’s showing rain for a while when 925 is still below 0C. It’s also the NW outlier. So they must be going with that track but they didn’t explicitly say there were. The track matters a lot. You just aren’t going to get rain in N ORH county if 925 is tracking over the Cape…at least not significant rain. 

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

OK, put me in the padded room. So close. Yet so far. I would be disappointed. Can't lie. Especially with the track. Would usually probably do better on this most times around. Could be a big big disappointment here compared to the relative excitement I had getting the WSW notification on my phone. 

Long at peace with this one. The setup is the setup. Congrats NW. Helps to have snow cover lol. 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Long at peace with this one. The setup is the setup. Congrats NW. Helps to have snow cover lol. 

This.

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Just gotta poke around sometimes man

NW CT will get some Phil. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro blows again. 

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro blows again. 

Unless you're in Maine, NH, or VT.

[Damage In Tolland]

It’ll be right . The one time it’s right will be this 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Unless you're in Maine.

Yeah big hit near IZG on WSW. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro blows again. 

Worse or same as 12z?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Worse or same as 12z?

I don’t have a side by side to compare, but again mildest out of the bunch. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

In the NAM we trust... 

(can't believe I typed that)

[George001]

I closed the shades for my area, but I opened them up again. It sucks that tropical tidbits doesn’t have the 925 mb layer, that’s the warm layer that is expected to screw eastern areas right? The evolution of the 850mb layer temps on the 3k nam hints at a low generating it’s own cold air via dynamical cooling. Verbatim it’s not enough, so most areas east of say the Berkshires rain most of the storm. However, models often underestimate the dynamical cooling effect. If the low deepens to say 988 mb instead of 992mb and the 925 mb temps are 2-3 degrees cooler than expected, maybe areas expecting all rain in eastern mass could wake up to big snows like in March 2013. It’s a low probability, more likely it will just rain but this has big upside if things break right.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I closed the shades for my area, but I opened them up again. It sucks that tropical tidbits doesn’t have the 925 mb layer, that’s the warm layer that is expected to screw eastern areas right? The evolution of the 850mb layer temps on the 3k nam hints at a low generating it’s own cold air via dynamical cooling. Verbatim it’s not enough, so most areas east of say the Berkshires rain most of the storm. However, models often underestimate the dynamical cooling effect. If the low deepens to say 988 mb instead of 992mb and the 925 mb temps are 2-3 degrees cooler than expected, maybe areas expecting all rain in eastern mass could wake up to big snows like in March 2013. It’s a low probability, more likely it will just rain but this has big upside if things break right.

Close the shades and go to bed. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

18z Canadian HRRR at 48 hours… that’s just a wild boundary between 20” and nothing in the Berkshires.  Then also Hudson Valley to Catskills.

Washington county always gets the shaft 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Oh George, so much to learn.

[SouthCoastMA]

George, you're setting yourself up for way too many melts this season. no need to even invest 1% of your energy on this one

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t have a side by side to compare, but again mildest out of the bunch. 

Those BL temps are almost not credible given the track. Track might have been slightly better on 18z vs 12z. More consolidated just south of BID and a touch south of 12z. 
 

I’ll give it until 12z tomorrow to see if there’s any caving. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Those BL temps are almost not credible given the track. Track might have been slightly better on 18z vs 12z. More consolidated just south of BID and a touch south of 12z. 
 

I’ll give it until 12z tomorrow to see if there’s any caving. 

I know and I’m trying to see why. But it’s stubborn so it’s keying on something. 
The only thing I can see (this is for 925) is that George’s bank buoy is 66F. 925 briefly comes from that direction. Maybe the source region is sort of overriding  what we typically expect for climo temps? Although that doesn’t totally explain surface temps with winds that are more ENE. That would keep lower level temps cooler.
 

Anyways just something I noticed. I guess we’ll see how 00z looks.

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’ll be right . The one time it’s right will be this 

The model is a shell if it’s former self…just a disgrace. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro gonna win

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

I wouldn't expect much where you are. Not a great location for an event like this. A 5 minute drive to North Canton will get you in the goods though!

God. That hurts to read. But you are correct. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro gonna win

Them's fightin words

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, George001 said:

I closed the shades for my area, but I opened them up again. It sucks that tropical tidbits doesn’t have the 925 mb layer, that’s the warm layer that is expected to screw eastern areas right? The evolution of the 850mb layer temps on the 3k nam hints at a low generating it’s own cold air via dynamical cooling. Verbatim it’s not enough, so most areas east of say the Berkshires rain most of the storm. However, models often underestimate the dynamical cooling effect. If the low deepens to say 988 mb instead of 992mb and the 925 mb temps are 2-3 degrees cooler than expected, maybe areas expecting all rain in eastern mass could wake up to big snows like in March 2013. It’s a low probability, more likely it will just rain but this has big upside if things break right.

Edibles 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Oh George, so much to learn.

Gotta know when to fold em. 

[TalcottWx]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NW CT will get some Phil. 

It's going to have that 'wonderful' 34f white rain side of the coastal front feel here for a long, long time according to some models. The old Southie to Jerry in Brookline nada to plowable. It's a tough feeling. The big ones that disappear on modeling at easier for me to handle, the shoulda, coulda, woulda aspect of the storm's potential bothers me far more. I'm hoping we get some shocking trend where Hartford County gets WSW totals in the NW corner near me.....

I'm holding out hope, Like a coke addict licking lint balls off the floor when his dealer is Mia 

I need a less elongated mid level low, strong banding, and a se trend to really have any minimal increases in hope. 

I will sports bet and lose money trading stock options to fill the void. 

 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Edibles 

Luke, I am your father. 

[Stash]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Washington county always gets the shaft 

Frequently shadowed off the Greens. Many apply it to Alb too, but they rarely shadow much unless it's a screaming east wind. The 'Dacks through the Greens should really clean up with this one.