ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 06z GFS was a nice little paste bomb for the interior. I def don’t think the interior is out of the game on this one. We’ll want to see the euro come SE a tick. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: We better not strike out in this pattern Stop listening to him..he’s insufferable. Once he’s out..he’s unreadable. He said close the shades last week for the rest of the month, and he got snow Sunday night…so there ya go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Assuming the 925 track doesn’t creep north my guess is Miller state park - or a couple miles east in that area where temple goes from like 700’ to 1200’. Or possible for all snow you need to get west of MHT near francestown / Crotched I’m at 780’ near Greenville so maybe I can keep some of the snow that falls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Stop listening to him..he’s insufferable. Once he’s out..he’s unreadable. He said close the shades last week for the rest of the month, and he got snow Sunday night…so there ya go. He is melting What's his average ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z GFS was a nice little paste bomb for the interior. I def don’t think the interior is out of the game on this one. We’ll want to see the euro come SE a tick. The fresh infusion of cold air tomorrow and tomorrow night is pretty deep . I can totally envision the Euro bumping southeast over the next 36 hours in smaller increments. I’m not expecting all snow here at all.. but I do think at least a couple inches are very possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, she gone. People can start focusing on the next failed threat now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Probably elevation dependent up this way. A lot of snow to my nw and w and glop to my se. seems like con to mht near the River could be a dividing line? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The fresh infusion of cold air tomorrow and tomorrow night is pretty deep . I can totally envision the Euro bumping southeast over the next 36 hours in smaller increments. I’m not expecting all snow here at all.. but I do think at least a couple inches are very possible. Good post. Very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He is melting What's his average ? He melts every other model run. When he’s out, he is unreadable as I said. He’s done fabulous the last 8 plus years….but regression is a dish best served Cold . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The fresh infusion of cold air tomorrow and tomorrow night is pretty deep . I can totally envision the Euro bumping southeast over the next 36 hours in smaller increments. I’m not expecting all snow here at all.. but I do think at least a couple inches are very possible. Yes. I could easily see your area getting a few inches before a flip. I’m not 100% convinced you don’t get a lot more either. We’ll want to see euro tick SE though pretty soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 It may not happen, but it’s been a while since the dividing line has been right around here. Usually it will push way north and west of us while the mountains get dumped on, or everything will sink south and east, and up here be on the fringe. some on here have called for an interior, winter, or an interior focused December and this would be consistent with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Same here. It certainly doesn't look great for many here, but out this way we've done well with these setups. Even snow to mix/rain is ok with me... just give me a winter type storm living just above 1,000 here i might be close you being further west might help.. going to watch the 12z trends close today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z GFS was a nice little paste bomb for the interior. I def don’t think the interior is out of the game on this one. We’ll want to see the euro come SE a tick. I think that's my concern at this point is bomb...or really strengthening as it moves by, so we're not flooded with ocean air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 06z Euro pretty similar to 0z, Maybe a tic or so east and a bit colder in the mids, It also is a little more robust with the qpf in some areas with some left to go as it only gets out to hr 90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 06z Euro pretty similar to 0z, Maybe a tic or so east and a bit colder in the mids, It also is a little more robust with the qpf in some areas with some left to go as it only gets out to hr 90. i need a bit east and colder here hoping the trend continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: i need a bit east and colder here hoping the trend continues The track of the mid levels are still not good for many, I don't think it would be able to be for eastern areas, A lot of changes would need to happen and were not seeing them now, But the fence sitters need to still watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 54 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, she gone. People can start focusing on the next failed threat now. Take it like a man 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 43 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Assuming the 925 track doesn’t creep north my guess is Miller state park - or a couple miles east in that area where temple goes from like 700’ to 1200’. Also very possible you need to get 20 miles north at same longitude for all snow you need to get west of MHT near francestown / Crotched basically watching that 0c 925 Line on euro Overnite Friday right over my fanny at MHT. i am thinking it sets up just north/west of here, like you said 26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: It may not happen, but it’s been a while since the dividing line has been right around here. Usually it will push way north and west of us while the mountains get dumped on, or everything will sink south and east, and up here be on the fringe. some on here have called for an interior, winter, or an interior focused December and this would be consistent with that. please do a snow dance, I am hoping to get my snowmobile out on the rail bed Boscawen-Lebanon before xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. I could easily see your area getting a few inches before a flip. I’m not 100% convinced you don’t get a lot more either. We’ll want to see euro tick SE though pretty soon. I’m leaning to keep expectations in check . I’m not terribly concerned about Euro as it typically always waits until the last 48 hours to slide ESE. Just hoping to grab a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Take it like a man The reverse Psych can't even save him on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m leaning to keep expectations in check . I’m not terribly concerned about Euro as it typically always waits until the last 48 hours to slide ESE. I will say GEFs are more amped it seems which is a bit of a red flag. I could see a couple inches there before a flip, but I think being further north is key. Like Hubbdave for example. Embrace the natural car wash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: right over my fanny at MHT. i am thinking it sets up just north/west of here, like you said please do a snow dance, I am hoping to get my snowmobile out on the rail bed Boscawen-Lebanon before xmas I walk that trail all the time, and bike it sometimes. Really beautiful. I will dance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 Unusual large scale synoptic evolution in having such a large vortex anomaly centered over Michigan (~) while a -NAO flex takes place over the western limb ... is not doing the models any favors. This is down to small scale differences, but the differences between the GEFs and EPS (GEPs) are on either side of the proverbial fence. The 00z/06z GEF blend would almost undoubtedly flip the interior to a period of moderate steady snow once applying marginality with the fact that the 850 mb stays < 0C .. This isn't true for the EPS and GEPs... SO, ...it's a 2 to 1 contest at 90 hours of approximate lead. Standard convention holds that we lean toward the consensus...which would lend to the Euro-like notion cold rain after a quick intro of snow/mix. However, the climatology of NAO ...particularly those expressing over the western limb such as this, is that these things correct S. So there's plenty of reasons not to 86 the GEFs/GFS solutions...which by the way, are quite tightly knotted as of 06z version, with very limited/no spread at 90 hours taking a moderate cyclone response between CC and the BM. ...that "tight clustering" aspect makes it weird - In either case, this still looks as though the better snow shot is along the axis outlined in the beginning of this thread to me. Maybe erode that back NW a little in a Euro solution... But **IF** the 06z -like idea of the GFS wins this... the relative error with 850s less that 0C and height falls and +PP situated N, probably sees an interior snow-rain-snow scenario with greater accumulation concerns. I tell you though ... a simple SE movement by the Euro of very little synoptic spacing would go a long way toward making more sense with the NAO. But the 'unusual' big vortex over the Lakes ...may just make this be a comically rare scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Take it like a man Lol. I still think this slides east over RI to Boston; I-84- Worcester, MHT west the place to be. I start off as some snow the. Slop to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The reverse Psych can't even save him on this one. It’s not hard to accept it. Move on. NBD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not hard to accept it. Move on. NBD. There's plenty of others chances coming down the road even if this doesn't work out up here, I'm not concerned with the look of the hemispheric pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Unless the gfs is right(which it probably is too far SE) , looks like east slopes of monads and whites should do well. Just has that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: There's plenty of others chances coming down the road even if this doesn't work out up here, I'm not concerned with the look of the hemispheric pattern going forward. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: please do a snow dance, I am hoping to get my snowmobile out on the rail bed Boscawen-Lebanon before xmas That has to be a rarity. Even up here we don't often have them out before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I walk that trail all the time, and bike it sometimes. Really beautiful. I will dance.... i love the part up towards Canaan where the trail goes betweeen the 2 rocks/small cliffs, from there up to the lake is awesone. but I love driving by Webster lake on the southern end as well 1 minute ago, mreaves said: That has to be a rarity. Even up here we don't often have them out before Christmas. it is rare to even get out before New Years. but this trail, most of it holds on to snow pretty well. it is an old railbed, so it is really flat and grooms well. there are 3 or 4 clubs that groom it, and they get out there early and often. there are plenty of trails off the rail bed, but they can suck especially early season. there are a couple restaurants more or less on the rail trail, so it is a nice shakedown cruise to get the off-season cobwebs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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