UnitedWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: At least many have something to track Got that right! Being stuck home with a cold/rsv/flu or whatever the f**k it is.... I need something to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 That's a good 925 look right there for anyone with any elevation at all....even some lower spots out west in W CT might do ok on that look 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Numbers from GYX - still lots of time for them to be scrambled. County: All Selected -- ME -- Androscoggin, ME Cumberland, ME Franklin, ME Kennebec, ME Knox, ME Lincoln, ME Oxford, ME Sagadahoc, ME Somerset, ME Waldo, ME York, ME -- NH -- Belknap, NH Carroll, NH Cheshire, NH Coos, NH Grafton, NH Hillsborough, NH Merrimack, NH Rockingham, NH Strafford, NH Sullivan, NH Location Snow Amount Potential Chance of Seeing More Snow Than Low End Snowfall Expected Snowfall High End Snowfall >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Portland, ME 0 0 1 47% 22% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Lewiston, ME 2 5 5 93% 87% 76% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0% Augusta, ME 2 5 5 97% 92% 82% 38% 0% 0% 0% 0% Farmington, ME 5 10 11 99% 98% 96% 89% 74% 52% 5% 0% Bath, ME 0 <1 <1 40% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rockland, ME 0 <1 <1 22% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Manchester, NH 0 0 2 48% 31% 17% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% Nashua, NH 0 0 1 30% 12% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Concord, NH 0 3 5 83% 72% 57% 23% 4% 0% 0% 0% Portsmouth, NH 0 0 <1 12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Keene, NH 1 3 7 96% 90% 79% 48% 22% 7% 0% 0% Rochester, NH 0 1 3 65% 48% 29% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% North Conway, NH 8 13 15 100% 100% 99% 97% 93% 83% 43% 0% Laconia, NH 2 3 7 99% 96% 87% 51% 20% 5% 0% 0% Lebanon, NH 4 7 10 100% 99% 98% 90% 68% 35% 1% 0% Berlin, NH 6 9 12 100% 100% 99% 95% 84% 63% 12% 0% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM might make some happy I always hate to say this because it just sounds too But my gut says WOR may do quite well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Pants off on winter hill that run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Dynamics look good. I think that is overdone based on other models, but here's hopin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pants off on winter hill that run Hits here good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Destroyed here on that run. We take now got to get the other models to show it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Damn what a run. Get the bread and milk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Definitely a tick colder. Gets pretty interesting even around MHT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: Destroyed here on that run. We take now got to get the other models to show it All snow for you. Pasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Some just needed to wait it out, Models always underplay the CAD until closer in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: All snow for you. I’m wearing pasties In front of the class? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This kind of reminds me of the octobomb in 2011, with regards to inland and west and elevation. Obviously differences…but modeling was way off on the boundary layer thermals right up to go time. Was supposed to rain from start and all afternoon, and then a change to some snow at the end… with little accumulation expected. We all know how that worked out. Started as snow and accumulated from the first flake…pure destructive cement. And that was October. Certainly not saying this will be the same result…but it’s mid December and climo is so much better than late October for SNE. 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM looking a little thumpy again in CT This is a tough one. Right now my first map has 6-12 for elevated northern Litchfield, 3-6 for the other part of the county into (elevated) western Hartford County, 1-3 for the interior part of the state (most in eastern hills), and a Trace for coastal and SE CT. Not sure where the rest of the team ends up, but that seems reasonable for a first call. A tick or two colder and it may be a different map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Wild cutoff on the clowns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Wild cutoff on the clowns More for IJD than ORH.....lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: Wild cutoff on the clowns If MHT ever managed 16" and I got 0" 5 miles south the christmas tree and presents would be on fire. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Wild cutoff on the clowns That gives the look that its either snow or rain and nothing in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Definitely a tick colder. Gets pretty interesting even around MHT talk dirty to me 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: If MHT ever managed 16" and I got 0" 5 miles south the christmas tree and presents would be on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Just now, wx2fish said: If MHT ever managed 16" and I got 0" 5 miles south the christmas tree and presents would be on fire. I'd prob bring the whole thing like 10 miles SE if everything else outside of the lowest 1000 feet on that run verified...and the cutoff would also have a little bit of diffusion instead of going from 15" to 0" in like 5 miles. You'd prob have a 5-10 mile zone of advisory slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 What a crusher in W MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, wx2fish said: If MHT ever managed 16" and I got 0" 5 miles south the christmas tree and presents would be on fire. I'll join you !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 As far as timing goes, am I in the neighborhood? start time after midnite on Thursday, through the day Friday, and out by midnite friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd prob bring the whole thing like 10 miles SE if everything else outside of the lowest 1000 feet on that run verified...and the cutoff would also have a little bit of diffusion instead of going from 15" to 0" in like 5 miles. You'd prob have a 5-10 mile zone of advisory slop. Would this run get it done here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd prob bring the whole thing like 10 miles SE if everything else outside of the lowest 1000 feet on that run verified...and the cutoff would also have a little bit of diffusion instead of going from 15" to 0" in like 5 miles. You'd prob have a 5-10 mile zone of advisory slop. Yeah I agree. Without much elevation I'd be happy with advisory slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would this run get it done here? You'd prob get hit hard initially, but it would eventually change over....but not before like 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: More for IJD than ORH.....lol Overdone SE flow? I mean I am screwed at 250’ here on the RI border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Overdone SE flow? I mean I am screwed at 250’ here on the RI border Probably....if we get one more tick, then maybe not, but right now I'd expect mostly rain there. Maybe a burst of snow for a time if you can get dynamics going there between about 4am-8am Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some just needed to wait it out, Models always underplay the CAD until closer in. Guessing my rain will be a tic colder. Quite a gradient on those maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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