Preliminarily ... a medium impact partial Miller B, Friday

[SJonesWX]

33 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Nothing at MHT, they must not be buying the cold trend for the coastal plain.

I said it yesterday, my fanny is right on the line. GYX is usually pretty conservative, i think they will kick it up a notch. My thinking is 2" here with lots of rain, 4" CON (half rain half snow), 6" up your way. I could bust low in your area, you seem to be very close to all snow there

[Chris12WX]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

GYX first map, That looks reasonable.

 

46 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Nothing at MHT, they must not be buying the cold trend for the coastal plain.

Can’t even get a 0-1”?

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be 2-3 for you I think.

I'm prob taking the over on that for Kevin unless this shifts NW again today.

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm prob taking the over on that for Kevin unless this shifts NW again today.

Think the boundary layer is cold enough even for Kev? 

Litchfield County looks good to me but the soundings EOR not looking great to me right now. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Think the boundary layer is cold enough even for Kev? 

Litchfield County looks good to me but the soundings EOR not looking great to me right now. 

My experience in these is that guidance overdoes the BL warmth....esp below the 925 layer. The latter is the caveat as some guidance is still a bit warm in that 925 zone....like the RGEM. But runs like NAM/GFS were plenty cold in that layer until around midday Friday for Tolland. If it's below 0C at 925, it won;t be raining where he is. Euro was like right on the line but it's been slowly cooling. I'd feel a little more confident to his northeast into ORH area, but if current guidance holds today, I'd prob take the over on 2-3". Obviously a NW tick again and that changes everything.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

My experience in these is that guidance overdoes the BL warmth....esp below the 925 layer. The latter is the caveat as some guidance is still a bit warm in that 925 zone....like the RGEM. But runs like NAM/GFS were plenty cold in that layer until around midday Friday for Tolland. If it's below 0C at 925, it won;t be raining where he is. Euro was like right on the line but it's been slowly cooling. I'd feel a little more confident to his northeast into ORH area, but if current guidance holds today, I'd prob take the over on 2-3". Obviously a NW tick again and that changes everything.

Yeah it's close. Was thinking the easterly flow probably hurts him a bit compared to NW CT. Even the hires models (3km NAM/HRRR) are a good 2F cooler at 2m to the west. Seems like some longitude assist WOR.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Definitely nice overall tics and runs at 6z

Gfs had another run where it hang snow back much of the day Saturday and 6z nam moved toward that idea 

6z euro had a better 925 track and N orh and monads did better but the antecedent temps were a touch milder for Parts of CT Friday early am when thump hit and were just on the wrong side of 0c at 925 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah it's close. Was thinking the easterly flow probably hurts him a bit compared to NW CT. Even the hires models (3km NAM/HRRR) are a good 2F cooler at 2m to the west. Seems like some longitude assist WOR.

I have no doubt WOR (litchfield county) is a better spot...I'm just looking at some of these runs that show him at -1C at 925 with heavy precip and thinking "that is not rain at 1000 feet". We'll see how the guidance comes in today....small tick NW and he's prob skunked....but small tick colder/SE, and he could get warning snows.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have no doubt WOR (litchfield county) is a better spot...I'm just looking at some of these runs that show him at -1C at 925 with heavy precip and thinking "that is not rain at 1000 feet". We'll see how the guidance comes in today....small tick NW and he's prob skunked....but small tick colder/SE, and he could get warning snows.

Looked like 925 ticked milder for kev on 6z euro for early Friday  even with better track but were better for route 2 / monads 

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have no doubt WOR (litchfield county) is a better spot...I'm just looking at some of these runs that show him at -1C at 925 with heavy precip and thinking "that is not rain at 1000 feet". We'll see how the guidance comes in today....small tick NW and he's prob skunked....but small tick colder/SE, and he could get warning snows.

INteresting to see the snow probabilities from the NBM and WPC be so low too. Basically <10% chance of >1" of snow for Tolland/Union. Even NW CT is pretty low. 

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah it's close. Was thinking the easterly flow probably hurts him a bit compared to NW CT. Even the hires models (3km NAM/HRRR) are a good 2F cooler at 2m to the west. Seems like some longitude assist WOR.

Although seeing a change in Friday, looks like this rain will flip back to snow which is a bit of a change from yesterday for us in inland Connecticut

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

INteresting to see the snow probabilities from the NBM and WPC be so low too. Basically <10% chance of >1" of snow for Tolland/Union. Even NW CT is pretty low. 

I've noticed those are always super low in marginal events like this. 12/5/20 is a recent example....I think they had low prob of even 3" for ORH and they had nearly 10" of paste but like 10 miles east lower down had 3".

Kevin's area is def a bit tough to forecast for because it has elevation but it can be prone to warmth intrusion at 925 from the SE/ESE.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've noticed those are always super low in marginal events like this. 12/5/20 is a recent example....I think they had low prob of even 3" for ORH and they had nearly 10" of paste but like 10 miles east lower down had 3".

Kevin's area is def a bit tough to forecast for because it has elevation but it can be prone to warmth intrusion at 925 from the SE/ESE.

I’ve seen these types of systems swing both ways over the years around here. Some of them are mainly snow and some like MLK I just miss out and it’s 33 with paws and rains.  The dynamics with this one are strengthening each run and we’re seeing cooling to isothermal paste. I need one more shift SE to feel more confident. Some models flip us back to snow Friday night and drop 1-3”.  For now just cautiously optimistic for a net gain with what we already have OTG.

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm prob taking the over on that for Kevin unless this shifts NW again today.

Yeah that's just what I feel comfortable with now being this far out. It could definitely be higher. I think I would go higher if today came in steady state or colder obviously. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen these types of systems swing both ways over the years around here. Some of them are mainly snow and some like MLK I just miss out and it’s 33 with paws and rains.  The dynamics with this one are strengthening each run and we’re seeing cooling to isothermal paste. I need one more shift SE to feel more confident. Some models flip us back to snow Friday night and drop 1-3”.  For now just cautiously optimistic for a net gain with what we already have OTG.

I think if you could get this a tickle more SE on its track from NJ coast toward Long Island Then that will help you and Many more 

[CoastalWx]

I just have this nagging feeling that his latitude and longitude may not help much...but we'll see today,

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen these types of systems swing both ways over the years around here. Some of them are mainly snow and some like MLK I just miss out and it’s 33 with paws and rains.  The dynamics with this one are strengthening each run and we’re seeing cooling to isothermal paste. I need one more shift SE to feel more confident. Some models flip us back to snow Friday night and drop 1-3”.  For now just cautiously optimistic for a net gain with what we already have OTG.

MLK was a mid-level issue for you....850 0C line was like straddling Union CT....you are plenty cold at 850 this time...all the warmth is trying to get you in the boundary layer below 900mb. Those are the ones I'm frequently skeptical with on the models because the one bias model guidance always has in the low levels is that they are too geostrophic...they don't capture ageo flow very well. A model that is too geostrophic at 900-950 mb is going to bring the warmth too far west inland.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just have this nagging feeling that his latitude and longitude may not help much...but we'll see today,

thats my only worry being to far east

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’m thinking 3-4” is good bet for Greenfield before we taint.  Probably can double that for the hilltowns to my west.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

At least many have something to track 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

MLK was a mid-level issue for you....850 0C line was like straddling Union CT....you are plenty cold at 850 this time...all the warmth is trying to get you in the boundary layer below 900mb. Those are the ones I'm frequently skeptical with on the models because the one bias model guidance always has in the low levels is that they are too geostrophic...they don't capture ageo flow very well. A model that is too geostrophic at 900-950 mb is going to bring the warmth too far west inland.

I just wish the Nam was cold. I was thinking that model would pick up the colder profile. So that is a concern 

[Digityman]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

GYX first map, That looks reasonable.

Glad it will truly be a Merry Christmas for Saddle, Sunday and the Loaf.    Just in time for them.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen these types of systems swing both ways over the years around here. Some of them are mainly snow and some like MLK I just miss out and it’s 33 with paws and rains.  The dynamics with this one are strengthening each run and we’re seeing cooling to isothermal paste. I need one more shift SE to feel more confident. Some models flip us back to snow Friday night and drop 1-3”.  For now just cautiously optimistic for a net gain with what we already have OTG.

Yea. Another tick or two on a model blend here and we have something. There’s a sneaky potential for a nice front end but also the elusive backside…the H7 track looks good for a couple inches when/if it changes back (interior wct).

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Another tick or two on a model blend here and we have something. There’s a sneaky potential for a nice front end but also the elusive backside…the H7 track looks good for a couple inches when/if it changes back (interior wct).

I think your area is good for at least 1-3/2-4”. Elevated just enough and certainly far enough west 

[WinterWolf]

This kind of reminds me of the octobomb in 2011, with regards to inland and west and elevation. Obviously differences…but modeling was way off on the boundary layer thermals right up to go time. Was supposed to rain from start and all afternoon, and then a change to some snow at the end… with little accumulation expected.   We all know how that worked out.   Started as snow and accumulated from the first flake…pure destructive cement. And that was October.  
 

Certainly not saying this will be the same result…but it’s mid December and climo is so much better than late October for SNE. 

[Spanks45]

Nam looks SE, pretty far possibly? Maybe not that far, but colder definitely....

[ineedsnow]

NAM might make some happy

[ORH_wxman]

NAM looking a little thumpy again in CT

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This kind of reminds me of the octobomb in 2011, with regards to inland and west and elevation. Obviously differences…but modeling was way off on the boundary layer thermals right up to go time. Was supposed to rain from start and all afternoon, and then a change to some snow at the end… with little accumulation expected.   We all know how that worked out.   Started as snow and accumulated from the first flake…pure destructive cement. And that was October.  
 

Certainly not saying this will be the same result…but it’s mid December and climo is so much better than late October for SNE. 

Would love 22" of powder like I got with that, but that ain't happenin'

[dryslot]

Surface wise, 12z Nam looks the same as 06z, But its another tic or so colder.